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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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Euro completely caved, looks a lot like the NAM now. Looks like a solid consensus for the area has been reached.

 

completely caved? lol. it looks mostly the same as it did. these small nudges should be expected on any model.

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Euro is really holding onto the precip longer

I hope it starts increasing qpf to the east of DCA

my gut says it will, and Ian's comments that it keeps moving the higher snow totals east is encouraging too

 

it's been doing it the past few runs. i'd expect that to continue at least to a degree.

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Based on no science at all, I'm going to average all the models and go 5-10 for dc, 10-15 for loudoun and 15+ west of that.  Mark my words.

 

Since the models are "science" and basically you're doing an ensemble mean, I'd say it's scientific!

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Imo if the euro ens are north of op it would be nail in the coffin to post winter storm warnings confidently. You would then naturally expect another north trend in overnight euro.

You have to be curious how the rain snow line develops obviously. A place considered to be out of jackpot prestorm might luck out by being further north and west. I think as long as banding develops as modeled there will be no problem staying snow away from the normally warmer spots. An isothermal paste typhoon tip blue snow bomb might occur in spots. Significant power outages might be expected along with moderare to somewhat strong winds.

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Surface and/or BL temps for the Euro?  Has it cooled down to the ~1C range like the GFS?

 

they still look pretty meh on the maps -- 32 well NW--  but not sure i care.

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Based on the 18z Wednesday map DT just posted, surface low placement at that time looks IDENTICAL between the GFS and Euro.  Then the Euro does it's funky SE jog thingy and the GFS does NE.  

if EUro loses the SE jog, I would expect heavier qpf to make it NE than currently depicted ending up similar to GFS

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