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March 2013 Forecast Contest, Temperatures

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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The March contest is open for business ... the rules are outlined in greater detail in the February contest (post #1) ... a group decision was made to soften the time penalties somewhat, they now apply as percentages of score rather than absolute deductions. But they run on the same schedule, one percentage point per hour late, with a five minute grace period in each hour (thus the deadline of 00:05h Friday March 1st but all entries later than that on Friday will start to acquire penalty points.)

 

As you all seemed comfortable in doing last month, kindly use this template adding (or replacing with) the forecast anomalies for the six stations we are now using:

 

DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... ... ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH

 

as it helps to create the table and avoids errors.

 

February and cumulative scores will be posted soon after the end of the month, watch for those in the February thread.

 

Good luck and have fun ...

 

 

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Weatherbob (and anyone else who would like to join the contest), just look at the post below yours (from bkviking) and that's how to use the template (the list of six stations followed by your predictions). Thanks. (You don't have to use that format, as long as we can match up six forecasts with six stations, it's a valid entry -- also note that we are forecasting anomalies or departures from 1981-2010 means.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Just FYI, the table of entries will appear just about five minutes after the deadline to preserve your original forecasts. But before that, you could edit during the day Thursday, I don't start to record the entries until almost 11 p.m. so if you do an edit really tight to the deadline, make a note in your post. If you do it before then, no need to post about it, I have no record of anything posted before I start the table posting.

 

The shorter month may catch one or two entrants off guard, so spread the word to your regional forums if you get a chance, as Thursday will be the last day for penalty-free entries (up to 5 mins after midnight very early on Friday).

 

I was thinking about later revisions -- anyone who wanted to do that would have the forecasts changed subjected to the applicable time penalty. The unchanged forecasts would not be penalized. I am not aware of anyone ever doing this (here) and would not consider it myself, but that's the rule in case it ever comes up. It would be necessary to alert me to the changes if you edited your post without comment.

 

So, look for a table of entries on Friday morning, which will be continuously updated with the late entries that come in. By using the template system, we usually have few issues about wrong entries in the table (except where I confuse two posters for each other) but for the few that don't use the template, I check those carefully in my table since it involves transcription rather than a block copy.

 

 

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