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March 2013 Forecast Contest, Temperatures

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Here are the on-time forecasts, this table will be edited to show later entries and penalties, and any changes that are required (check your entries although I have block copied all but three or four of them so they should be fine). Penalties start at the rate of 1% of score per hour at 00:05h EST Friday March 1st.

 

 

March contest entries

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ___@___ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _______ pen

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

WESTWIND ................... +2.7 ... +1.8 ... +1.6 ... ... ... ... ... +2.1 ... +2.4 ... +0.8

 

BKVIKING ...................... +1.9. ... +1.2.... +0.6 ... ... ... ... ... +1.1....+1.2 ... +1.3

 

STEBO ........................... +1.3 ... +0.8 ... +0.2 ... ... ... ... ... +1.8 ... +1.2 ... --0.5

 

SD .................................. +1.2 ... +0.8 ... +1.0 ... ... ... ... ... --0.5 ... +1.0 ... +0.5

 

CHICAGO STORM ........... +1.0 ... +0.7 ... +1.0 ... ... ... ... ... +0.7 ... +1.0 ... +3.0

 

DEREK_Z ....................... +0.8 ... +1.1 ... +1.6 ...... ... ... ... +1.8 ... --0.2 ... +1.3

 

CHICAGO_WX ................ +0.5 ... +0.8 ... +1.0 ... ... ... ... ... --0.5 ... +0.3 ... +1.0


GOOBAGOOBA ............... +0.5 ... +0.7 ... +1.2 ... ... ... ... ... +2.3 ... --0.5 ... --0.2

 

STORMITECTURE ......... +0.5 ... --0.2 ... --0.4 ... ... ... ... ... --0.2 ... +1.0 ... --0.3 ... ... ... ... 4

 

WEATHERDUDE ........... +0.3 ... +0.9 ... +1.5 ... ... ... ... ...  --0.3 ... --1.7 ... --2.5

 

TOM .............................. +0.2 .... +0.1.... --0.2 ... ... ... ... ... --0.3 ... +0.4 ... +0.5

 

SKISHEEP ...................... +0.1 ... --1.0 ... --1.6 ... ... ... ... ... --0.7 ... --1.2 ... +1.1

 

 

Normal ............................... 0.0 .... 0.0 .... 0.0 ... .... ... ... ... .. 0.0 .... 0.0 .... 0.0

 

 

ELLINWOOD ..................... 0.0 ... +0.6 ... +1.3 ... ... ... ... ... --1.6 ... --1.4 ... --0.5

 

MALLOW ..........................--0.2 ... +0.5 ... +1.3 ... ... ... ... ... +0.6 ... --0.3 ... --0.7

 

SRAIN ............................. --0.2 ... --0.5 ... +0.3 ... ... ... ... ... --1.2 ... --1.1 ... --1.9

 

ISOTHERM ...................... --0.2 ... --0.9 ... --1.3 ... ... ... ... ... +1.5 ... --1.0 ... +1.2

 

UNCLE W ....................... --0.5 .. --0.5 ... --1.0 ... ... ... ... ... --0.5 ... --1.0 ... +1.0

 

POTTERCOUNTYWX ....... --0.8 ... +0.5 ... +0.0 ... ... ... ... ..... 0.0 ... +1.6 ... +2.2 ... ... ... .... 1

 

 

Consensus ..................... --0.6 ..... --0.5 ... --0.2 ... ... ... ... ... --0.7 ... --1.0 ... --0.2

 

 

 

LITCHFIELD.LIBATIONS .. --1.0 ... --1.2 ... --0.7 ... ... ... ... ... --3.1 ... --0.1 ... --4.1

 

DONSUTHERLAND.1......... --1.2... --0.5... --0.2 ... ... ... ... ... --3.0 ... --2.5... --0.8

 

RODNEYS ........................ --1.2 ...--1.2 ...--0.3 ... ... ... ... ... --3.6 ... --2.7 ... --0.8

 

HTOTOWN_WX ............... --1.2 ... --1.4 ...  --0.7 ... ... ... ... ... +1.7 ... --3.6 ... --2.2

 

BLAZES.S566 ................... --1.3 ... --0.6 .... --0.3 ... ... ... ... ... --3.1 ... --2.6 ... --1.0

 

INUDAW .......................... --1.3 ... --0.9 ....--0.5 ... ... ... ... ... --1.8 ... --0.5 ... +1.5

 

ROGER SMITH ................. --1.3 ... --1.5 ... ---0.7 ... ... ... ... ... --2.5 ... --2.7 ... --1.6

 

CPICK.79 .......................... --1.5 ... +1.0 ... +0.1 ... ... ... ... ... --1.2 ... --2.4 ... +0.2

 

SACRUS ............................ --1.5 ... --0.9 ... --1.4 ... ... ... ... ... +0.2 ... --1.0 ... --0.8 ... ... ... 60

 

SKIERINVERMONT ........... --1.5 ... --1.0 .... +0.3 ... ... ... ... ... -1.5 ... -3.0 ... -1.5 ... ... ... ... 2

 

MN_TRANSPLANT ............ --1.5 ... --1.8 ... --1.9 ... ... ... ... ... --1.4 ... --1.0 ... +1.6

 

MIDLO_SNOW_MAKER .... --1.9 ... --2.0 ... --1.6 ... ... ... ... ... --2.2 ... --1.5 ... --0.9

 

ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY ...... --2.0 ... --1.3 ... +0.3 ... ... ... ... ... --1.4 ... --2.6 .... --0.8

 

NZUCKER ......................... --2.1 ... --1.6 ...  --0.8 ... .. .. ... ...  --0.7 ... --2.4 ... --2.5 ... ... ... 18

   

WXDUDE64 ...................... --2.3 ... --2.0 .... --1.6 .. ... ... ... ... --3.6 ... --2.6 ... --2.5

 

CTBLIZZ .......................... --.2.5 ... --3.0 ... --3.5 ... ... ... ... ... --4.0 ... --3.0 ... --0.5

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

Forecasts beyond this post are being added to the list as we go forward, check back.

 

34 forecasts (not counting Normal), Consensus is the median so is the average of 17th & 18th ranked forecasts.

Weatherdude added as per notification of missing entry. Have since checked list.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

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LOLz...penalties in a bragging rights only contest. That's funny.

Late penalties have been assessed in this contest since I can remember...

Penalties exist to keep others from gaining an unfair advantage of having more model data, and if more than one day late, more actuals to incorporate into their monthly anomalies. If there were no late penalty, then I could theoretically add an entry at the end of the month and win every time. That would suck all the fun and challenge out of it.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of entries has been updated to include late entries.

 

The month is off to a very cold start in the expanded division. Anomalies after three days were:

 

DCA .. --4.2

NYC .. --1.5

BOS .. +3.2

 

ORD .. --7.3

ATL .. --13.3

IAH .. --10.7

 

Some recovery underway for IAH today (overnight low about 50F, currently low 70s) but ATL will continue chilly with a slight recovery on Tuesday, ORD will lose a bit of their large anomaly after today with milder overnight readings but it looks to continue well below normal in general except in areas of New England getting the backwash from the Greenland blocking. That seldom exceeds +4 for BOS or +1 for NYC but can be like +10 in Caribou ME.

 

Just as an indication, -8 anomaly sustained to 8th means rest of month has to average +2.8 to get back to zero anomaly.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Thanks, I have IAH at -3.2 maybe they corrected later, also BOS was missing data on the 10th so that is through 9 days for them.

 

It was looking like IAH and ORD were sliding down below normal today while ATL will see about a degree rise, DCA a half degree maybe, in a flickering torch (compared to last March nothing much, I think China is getting the mega-torch this month that the U.S. got last March, I noticed some +20 anomalies in central China a few days ago looking at some maps).

 

The current GFS output looks rather cold in general despite the odd warmer day, except for IAH which could start to warm up in a more sustained way. Would not surprise me to see all stations converging on -2 and maybe Houston escaping the negatives but some other stations falling back lower than currently? We shall see.

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wxdude64

wxdude64

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Thanks, I have IAH at -3.2 maybe they corrected later, also BOS was missing data on the 10th so that is through 9 days for them.

 

It was looking like IAH and ORD were sliding down below normal today while ATL will see about a degree rise, DCA a half degree maybe, in a flickering torch (compared to last March nothing much, I think China is getting the mega-torch this month that the U.S. got last March, I noticed some +20 anomalies in central China a few days ago looking at some maps).

 

The current GFS output looks rather cold in general despite the odd warmer day, except for IAH which could start to warm up in a more sustained way. Would not surprise me to see all stations converging on -2 and maybe Houston escaping the negatives but some other stations falling back lower than currently? We shall see.

Yep, they are, I missed that, sorry.

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bkviking

bkviking

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I had all the info all of you do yet still went positive at all sights. At first, I was larger with departures, but "corrected" it before deadline. Knowing a strong west based block was forecast well into the month I should've known better. I just went under the assumption that we generally have exceeded forecast highs with no storm around. For example, next Saturday in NYC, original forecast departures were -7F range. Now, we see it modify to mid 40s--lower than avg BUT not as significantly so. Boston is above average--not totally surprising given -NAO; worst departures from normal will be equator directed. Atlanta seems like lost cause but who knows. Not even mid-month so I'm not gonna declare loss yet.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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After 18 days ...

 

DCA ... --1.2

NYC ... --1.4

BOS ... --0.4

 

ORD ... --4.2

ATL ... --3.6

IAH ... --1.4

 

Houston is making a run for the exits of negativo-land with a high yesterday of 90, anomalies look set to gain half a degree per day there, and Atlanta is also warming slightly, but the other four contest sites are heading down.

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Okay, meteorological winter is done, astronomical winter is done, so this must be bizarro winter ... cuz it continues to get colder (except in Houston).

 

after 21 days,

 

DCA __ --1.5

NYC __ --2.1

BOS __ --1.4

 

ORD __ --6.0 (ouch)

ATL __ --4.0

IAH __ --1.0

 

Could see IAH very close to zero after a warm overnight (low about 65 F, high near 80 at least) but the rest of these are sinking faster than a Middle East navy on day two of world war four.

 

(trying to keep my Nostradamus cover intact here)

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Nice try Houston, but it's back to the Negative Corral for you this week ...

 

(if the Texas state forecasts are to be believed, -10 anomalies will return)

 

meanwhile after 23 days we find thin pickins for warm outlooks:

 

 

DCA ... --2.1

 

NYC ... --2.6

 

BOS ... --1.6

 

ORD ... --6.2

 

ATL ... --4.4

 

IAH ... --0.2

 

Looking at the charts, would think these are mostly within a degree of final resting places that may end up converging near --3 (except that ORD will have trouble moving up much and IAH could drop rather quickly back to about --2 based on that state forecast which has some -15 anomalies mid-week).

 

Note, I will open up the April thread soon in view of the busy weekend at the end of the month, but no extensions so plan to submit a forecast early if you're expecting to be away from the weather and the forum. I hate the penalties as much as you do.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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After 27 days, with estimated final value in brackets (using NOAA state forecasts and estimated daily normals) ...

 

DCA ... --3.1 (--2.9)

 

NYC ... --2.8 (--2.6)

 

BOS ... --1.2 (--0.8)

 

ORD ... --6.2 (--5.4)

 

ATL ... --6.0 (--5.5)

 

IAH ... --2.0 (--1.2)

 

I will post some estimated scores and revise those as the final data adjust (next post in a while).

 

 

 

 

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