Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL ohh geez...pennlive. If I had yo guess Eastern has best shot at good snows in our group, then me, Rick G. Pawatch and 2001kx look to see least. I think our large unv group has a shot at ok snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 PennLive hed: Central PA could see 10 inches of snow by midweek http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/snow_storm_harrisburg.html#incart_river_default WTF. Saw that. Already got several e-mails about it as well. It's stuff like this, man, that make me go nuts! It's way too early to be making a call like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Saw that. Already got several e-mails about it as well. It's stuff like this, man, that make me go nuts! It's way too early to be making a call like that...Especially since we'll get a 1/4" of rain ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL ohh geez...pennlive. If I had yo guess Eastern has best shot at good snows in our group, then me, Rick G. Pawatch and 2001kx look to see least. I think our large unv group has a shot at ok snows. yeah, im on the outside looking in south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z Euro is a little south of 12z... not a big enough shift or any changes to cause any panic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z Euro is a little south of 12z... not a big enough shift or any changes to cause any panic though Ehh it let the wind out of my sails a bit. Other 0z guidance was north I really expected a nice euro run but this was a letdown. This isn't the gfs we can't count on a north trend when the euro is south. Also getting into light precip won't do good we need to be in the .75 + qpf to get any sig accum because of surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Judging by text data I don't think anyone in PA except for like Washington, PA in the far southwest had even a tenth of QPF from the Euro. So tonight we have the GFS delivering decent snow to about the southwest third of PA, the GEFS mean running the .5 contour along I-80 and the .75 contour roughly along the turnpike. The GGEM delivers decent precip to the southern half of PA (QPF coverage kinda looks similar to GEFS). And last and definitely least comes the Euro with pretty much nothing in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 03 SREFs still bringing the heat.. now basically having enough agreement amongst members to have a near certainty of 1"+ for a large portion of PA all the way out at 84 hours with high probs of 4+ in the south central and modest 8+ probs more in the southern tier of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 03 SREFs still bringing the heat.. now basically having enough agreement amongst members to have a near certainty of 1"+ for a large portion of PA all the way out at 84 hours with high probs of 4+ in the south central and modest 8+ probs more in the southern tier of counties. f12s84-1.gif Pretty dang good agreement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 PennLive hed: Central PA could see 10 inches of snow by midweek http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/snow_storm_harrisburg.html#incart_river_default WTF. Indeed. WTF. Crazy to make such a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Got a decent covering of snow overnight, about 1/2-1". Was snowing hard when I first got up. Wasn't expecting it. We went to dinner with friends in Philipsburg and they still have a solid snowcover up there. Like a totally different climate in a five mile drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z -> 00z tonight will be the big three runs. We're going to have the system over the RAOB network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z GFS slipped somewhat south again, MDT at .151 snow (liquid equiv), RDG at 0.018. Meanwhile, BWI is looking at just shy of 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm noticing a "stall" trend emerging on the American guidance. Will be interesting to see if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 CTP disco was pretty interesting. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 09Z UPDATE... THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE MODEL HANDLING OF MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. WITHOUT BEING TOO REACTIVE TO THE LATEST RUNS AND ENSEMBLES... IT IS CLEAR THAT THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM ARE IN A DIFFERENT CAMP THAN THE ECMWF...AS THE FORMER HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE EURO CONTINUES TO MIRROR PREVIOUS (2 DAY OLD) RUNS OF THE GFS KEEPING MOST QPF SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON. THINK THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS THAT THE AMERICAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE KEEPING THE PRIMARY LOW STRONGER WITH DELAYED COASTAL PHASING... PERHAPS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LAST UNPHASED MILLER-B SYSTEM WE SAW LAST FRIDAY. GFS EVEN INTRODUCES A DRY SLOT INTO WV WITH 850 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO NOSING TOWARDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DELAYED 2NDARY DEVELOPMENT. OF COURSE...3 DAYS OUT THESE DETAILS WILL CHANGE...BUT IT`S WORTH ATTEMPTING TO DIAGNOSE WHY OUR MODELS ARE SHIFTING QPF NORTHWARD WHILE THE PREVAILING DOWNSTREAM BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND THE ECMWF FOR NOW ISN`T SHOWING THE SAME TREND. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TWEAKED POPS...QPF AND SNOWFALL TOWARD THE SREF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT USED ONLY 50% OF THE GFS QPF AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA. SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CENTRAL PA BECOMES THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN THE DECAYING PRIMARY AND 2NDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...WHICH IS THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. Also, one has to consider the trajectory this system is taking. This isn't going to be a southern branch wave trying to push its way northeast out of the Gulf, but one that is dropping into the central states from Canada. The block will force this system southeast to a degree,but if the primary is far enough NE before it starts to transfer, then it is going to hang the precip shield in a nw-se fashion across some or alot of Central PA. I personally think the Euro is too far south with this.. but it is also entirely possible that things start converging somewhere in the middle and that would make this more of a turnpike and south type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z NAM looks sweet at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM looks like the ultimate kick in the nuts to the LSV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am starting to get that awful feeling of having a great storm just to our south. It might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Very tight in eastern Penn. What a NAM-like QPF bomb for the NoVA and DC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol I feel like the ghost of 2010 is stopping by to knee me in the crotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I read on the Mid Atlantic forum that the Euro Ensemble was north of the OP. Looks like the 0z was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know 2 storms are never the same, but I'm getting the feeling of the dec 09 storm with this one. Somerset over to Adams still get 1+" of qpf on latest nam and not being in the bullseye is ok at this point. Inside of 48 things will start locking in. Need other models on board now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like where I sit down here for this one. We get less qpf than to the SW but temps would compensate some as to ratios as well as the elevation here right on the MD border. I hope the precip shield expands some to get our northern crew in on some fun. Either way will be interesting to see how it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Harrisburg likely is going to be cut off or in heavy precip. State College to Selinsgrove to Pottsville North and East..your goose is likely cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like where I sit down here for this one. We get less qpf than to the SW but temps would compensate some as to ratios as well as the elevation here right on the MD border. I hope the precip shield expands some to get our northern crew in on some fun. Either way will be interesting to see how it pans out. I don't know. I am in York County (a bit north of you) and I am worried. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A few days ago, the high temperature was forecast to be in the mid 40s across the LSV and Mason-Dixon. It's currently in the low 30s and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol I feel like the ghost of 2010 is stopping by to knee me in the crotch. Yep just a dusting from that one. Going to be interesting seeing which way the models trend. Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My offer on MDT not seeing 1" snow next week still stands. I stand behind my belief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Gfs is ugly It's really no different from the previous three runs up here. About 0.25" at UNV has been pretty consistent from the op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maeve Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Harrisburg likely is going to be cut off or in heavy precip. State College to Selinsgrove to Pottsville North and East..your goose is likely cooked. Is there any chance you'd consider waiting a little longer before you begin raining on the parade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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