AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Sounds like EURO has gone north, as well. DT mentioned moderate snow now in the Philadelphia/NJ region with DC/BWI now getting significant per that run. At this rate, there's not much time to trend to Detroit so we may be alright lol As in an Apps runner? This storm has .000000001% chance of that actually happening. The blocking up north will undoubtedly prevent a GL cutter. For PA, it'll be either a hit or a southerly miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As in an Apps runner? This storm has .000000001% chance of that actually happening. The blocking up north will undoubtedly prevent a GL cutter. For PA, it'll be either a hit or a southerly miss. You have too much faith in our luck changing... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 15z SREF has a pretty substantial bowling ball farther north than both the GFS & Euro. This is the last frame of the model run, but this would be a great placement for SC PA if it verified and would likely result in a strengthening low closer to, but south of the Mason-Dixon line. Agreed on the setup at 500mb. At this point, I believe it is fair to say there will be a potent coastal storm, with the best chance of a plowable snow from the turnpike south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 AND the 18z GFS continues the northward trend. Good precip makes it into the LSQV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Holy wow, 18Z GFS says what March sun angle!3.77" QPF bomb over DC: https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/307968479645007873/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 well i am no expert, but i'd say were going to see snow next week, it just depends on how much this pony trots north. a chance from a couple inches to hey now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Holy wow, 18Z GFS says what March sun angle! 3.77" QPF bomb over DC: https:// twitter.com/islivingston/status/307968479645007873/photo/1 Now that we are in meteorolgical spring it can snow, right? That was a heckuva call you made back in January to cancel winter even if we do cash in here. I thought you were nuts at the time, but it has been a long, cold, and brown winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ok with that big of a trend in one run. I'm starting to think game on again. It would only take another slight shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Holy wow, 18Z GFS says what March sun angle! 3.77" QPF bomb over DC: https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/307968479645007873/photo/1 Crazy gradient on the northern edge, as expected. But from pretty much 0" to 1.5+" QPF in about 100 miles is crazy. Reminiscent of the first of the back-to-backers in February 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 well i am no expert, but i'd say were going to see snow next week, it just depends on how much this pony trots north. a chance from a couple inches to hey now..... Go figure, right? My daughter started softball today and my son swings the bat tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Temps don't even appear to be an issue as per 18z GFS. Too bad it's overdone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 how are the temps looking? edit- never mind, we posted at the same time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Crazy gradient on the northern edge, as expected. But from pretty much 0" to 1.5+" QPF in about 100 miles is crazy. Reminiscent of the first of the back-to-backers in February 2010. Yes, tomorrow will be most interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Go figure, right? My daughter started softball today and my son swings the bat tomorrow. yeah what are we to do though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Temps don't even appear to be an issue as per 18z GFS. Too bad it's overdone..... VERY likely overdone. Oh, and it's still the 18z GFS so keep that in mind. Also, the energy hasn't been sampled thoroughly as it is still in the GOA. Should be coming ashore soon and entirely onshore and sampled by tomorrow night's 00z runs, if not tomorrow's 12z's. The reason the precip shifted north is because the blocking shifted NE, allowing the low to track farther north. I remember the first of the back-to-back February 2010 storms was like this too. Slow northward trend a couple days out and an immense cutoff due to blocking up north when the storm arrived... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This looks just like 2010. Deep down hoping it misses Selinsgrove on up, the big 410 sprint car season opener is next Sunday. Anyone who shows up I will buy your way in and you have full access to my cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Go figure, right? My daughter started softball today and my son swings the bat tomorrow. I played baseball in the snow, so can your son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Took a long look at the 06z, 12z, and 18z GFS op/ensembles for today. There are two ''trends'' I have noticed, first the Operational GFS has moved north by ~100 miles. The second, and arguably more important, is that with each run the ensembles are converging on a high impact solution and the variability between each ensemble member is shrinking. Lets see what the overnight runs have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Took a long look at the 06z, 12z, and 18z GFS op/ensembles for today. There are two ''trends'' I have noticed, first the Operational GFS has moved north by ~100 miles. The second, and arguably more important, is that with each run the ensembles are converging on a high impact solution and the variability between each ensemble member is shrinking. Lets see what the overnight runs have to say. I agree, Matt. Although we may see a bit of a different solution once that fresh upper-air data is ingested on this energy via the 12z/00z runs tomorrow. Tonight's runs are important, but tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night's runs are critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I agree, Matt. Although we may see a bit of a different solution once that fresh upper-air data is ingested on this energy via the 12z/00z runs tomorrow. Tonight's runs are important, but tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night's runs are critical. I've been watching the system enter the Pacific NW on infrared satellite (via SimuAWIPS) and it appears to be quite potent. EDIT: $20 says 06z runs are dry/bad for snow and everyone flips. EDIT #2: Loltastic NAM @ Hr 84 shows big storm headed to S-Central PA (8" - 12"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've been watching the system enter the Pacific NW on infrared satellite (via SimuAWIPS) and it appears to be quite potent. EDIT: $20 says 06z runs are dry/bad for snow and everyone flips. Weenie suicide watches have been posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 afte ther '09-'10 and '10-'11 seasons I am so sick of these insanely incredible sharp precip cutoffs just to my south and/or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Crazy gradient on the northern edge, as expected. But from pretty much 0" to 1.5+" QPF in about 100 miles is crazy. Reminiscent of the first of the back-to-backers in February 2010. I def agree there are some pretty big similarities to that event as it looks at the moment.. both good and bad depending on what part of C-PA one is in. This is also a good looking setup for an exclusively Mid-Atlantic event with the blocking in place. To the best of my recollection, this was about the position we were in at this range with respect to the majority of significant precip staying near or south of the PA border on model guidance. I still remember that CTP AFD written about 3-4 days out ("could see a couple inches in the southern tier.. perhaps up to 3" near the Maryland border"). Famous last words haha. Like I alluded to earlier, I don't think it is all unreasonable that we can get decent precip say from I-80 south..although I've noticed the precip hole in Northeast PA showing up in the same fashion of the Feb 5-6, 2010 event (one of the bad similariites). I don't think this storm will be as prolific as that one was, although a smaller area that ends up in the right place with some elevation could see some totals that try to be comparable considering some of the QPF on models. Gonna be a tight forecast the next couple days, I guess if there aren't ptype issues there just has to be a major gradient in QPF to deal with right through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREF's look great for SC PA towards the end of the run. Check out the h5 map...talk about a bowling ball! The corresponding surface low is in a good position as well with explosive deepening likely taking place after the last frame... I know it's the SREF, which is a higher-res model and subject to convective biases, but it's a step in the correct direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I def agree there are some pretty big similarities to that event as it looks at the moment.. both good and bad depending on what part of C-PA one is in. This is also a good looking setup for an exclusively Mid-Atlantic event with the blocking in place. To the best of my recollection, this was about the position we were in at this range with respect to the majority of significant precip staying near or south of the PA border on model guidance. I still remember that CTP AFD written about 3-4 days out ("could see a couple inches in the southern tier.. perhaps up to 3" near the Maryland border"). Famous last words haha. Like I alluded to earlier, I don't think it is all unreasonable that we can get decent precip say from I-80 south..although I've noticed the precip hole in Northeast PA showing up in the same fashion of the Feb 5-6, 2010 event (one of the bad similariites). I don't think this storm will be as prolific as that one was, although a smaller area that ends up in the right place with some elevation could see some totals that try to be comparable considering some of the QPF on models. Gonna be a tight forecast the next couple days, I guess if there aren't ptype issues there just has to be a major gradient in QPF to deal with right through our area. Right. Double-edged sword. If everyone gets in on the precip that lives in this thread's area, then southern areas will likely see ptype issues. The more than likely case is that the southern half of PA is still in the game (not definite, but still possible) for this one and it would be primarily snow. Looked at forecast soundings via twisterdata on the 18z GFS, and the entire event is snow based off of a grid point just to the south MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREFS look great for Route 22 and south. *I shouldn't be getting sucked in like this*. Absolutely beautiful setup at 500 & 850. Corresponding surface reflection is definitely a SECS for the lower third of Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is beautiful. Closed bowling ball trying to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Being 14 miles from Route 22 and in the Laurels I fell I am in a good spot. I here feb 6 2010 being tossed around. I will take 22 inches. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Being 14 miles from Route 22 and in the Laurels I fell I am in a good spot. I here feb 6 2010 being tossed around. I will take 22 inches. Lol Now now, let's keep level-heads. We don't want this to turn into an NYC thread. 22" is out of the question, I think for this storm, even in the highest QPF locations. Not deep enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Being 14 miles from Route 22 and in the Laurels I fell I am in a good spot. I here feb 6 2010 being tossed around. I will take 22 inches. Lol Now now, let's keep level-heads. We don't want this to turn into an NYC thread. 22" is out of the question, I think for this storm, even in the highest QPF locations. Not deep enough cold air. CIPS Analogs are 2/5/10, 2/10/10, 4/4/1998 & 3/4/2000...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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