Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now now, let's keep level-heads. We don't want this to turn into an NYC thread. 22" is out of the question, I think for this storm, even in the highest QPF locations. Not deep enough cold air. Agree. When I saw the cutoff, that was the storm that popped into my head. But I do like our chances for a solid snowfall. If I don't cash in I am rooting for our LSV guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREFS look great for Route 22 and south. *I shouldn't be getting sucked in like this*. Absolutely beautiful setup at 500 & 850. Corresponding surface reflection is definitely a SECS for the lower third of Pennsylvania. Holy corresponding snow probs. I haven't seen probs that good all year on the SREF inside of 30hrs most of the time much less hour 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Now now, let's keep level-heads. We don't want this to turn into an NYC thread. 22" is out of the question, I think for this storm, even in the highest QPF locations. Not deep enough cold air. Feb. 6 2010 is being mentioned alot in other forums. The upper air pattern at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Holy corresponding snow probs. I haven't seen probs that good all year on the SREF inside of 30hrs most of the time much less hour 87. f12s87.gif Wow, that is really impressive. And that's only to hr 87. That's when the storm starts to deepen and react to the butt-kicking H5 trough. I'm really interested now to see how the future runs of the SREF play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Agree. When I saw the cutoff, that was the storm that popped into my head. But I do like our chances for a solid snowfall. If I don't cash in I am rooting for our LSV guys. Here here, now that's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z NAM is running. If it's anything like the 18z NAM, then at hour 84, it'll be booming (couldn't see beyond hr 84 at 18z and it was starting to go boom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 CTP just posted this to their Facebook. I wanted to point out the fairly large easterly 850 wind anomalies into PA being illustrated in their one image but I'll also add that DT is hating on them heavily in the comments for posting the SREF haha... Classy. I do think the best course for now is to take something in between this and the Euro guidance.. and I think the 18z GEFS mean is a pretty decent take precip wise. http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=507871219263970&set=a.202646946453067.66991.202338219817273&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait, we are talking about Feb 2010? It won't snow here, why?! Feb 2010 was amazing here. (I'm trying reverse psychology with this one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm going all in already. Why not? Won't get to say that again for 9 more months. Consistency does give confidence, and ctps facebook post indicates they are feeling some swagger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hope you guys get crushed down there...it looks good right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait.. is WxSynopsis also DT along with his regular WxRisk Facebook page?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait.. is WxSynopsis also DT along with his regular WxRisk Facebook page?? Hmm, it doesn't really read like DT to me. The grammatical errors are... somehow different. Seems like a younger person wrote it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z NAM is running. If it's anything like the 18z NAM, then at hour 84, it'll be booming (couldn't see beyond hr 84 at 18z and it was starting to go boom). NAM always overdoes precip, i'm guessing 1.5-2.5" QPF at MDT on the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 CTP just posted this to their Facebook. I wanted to point out the fairly large easterly 850 wind anomalies into PA being illustrated in their one image but I'll also add that DT is hating on them heavily in the comments for posting the SREF haha... Classy. I do think the best course for now is to take something in between this and the Euro guidance.. and I think the 18z GEFS mean is a pretty decent take precip wise. 601499_507871219263970_2052526134_n.jpg http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=507871219263970&set=a.202646946453067.66991.202338219817273&type=1&theater http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF964.1 when NWS State College starts discussing wind anomalies they have a pretty good idea of what they are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmm, it doesn't really read like DT to me. The grammatical errors are... somehow different. Seems like a younger person wrote it to me. Haha, well I stand corrected on my post then if that wasn't him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Haha, well I stand corrected on my post then if that wasn't him. I'd like to point out that it could be, I certainly don't know for sure one way or the other. Just trying to pick out some (possibly nonexistent) subtle differences in writing style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd like to point out that it could be, I certainly don't know for sure one way or the other. Just trying to pick out some (possibly nonexistent) subtle differences in writing style. I think it may be him, actually. Went on the page, and people were asking him questions like "DT, what do you think blah blah blah". So either it's DT, or someone pretending to be DT. Either way, it was pretty funny to see him/her going at CTP for posting that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z GFS is almost identical to 18z at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait.. is WxSynopsis also DT along with his regular WxRisk Facebook page?? lol I saw what they were posting... they seem upset over any models showing something north... then says euro wins 99.9% of the time... and 18z has the worst data (when it really has nearly the same data as 12z)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wait.. is WxSynopsis also DT along with his regular WxRisk Facebook page?? It looks like DT on both to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That blocking isn't going anywhere...could be a northern Virginia special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 speaking of Feb 2010... I found my pictures from that event... I was living north of Pittsburgh at the time and the way my apartment was the snow ended up higher than the step for the entrance... I would love to have another storm like that to end this winter this week... had the snow stay on the ground for so long the deer started to frequently come to our bird feeders... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 In terms of PA impact 0z GFS not really too much different than 18z, there is one heck of a cutoff between the southwest and ne half of PA. Should note that the Pit area as well as the southern Laurels have been quietly looking pretty good for a decent event on the Euro/GFS operationals as they drop the system and its associated precip shield southeast. Not really all that often you see Pit look better than say MDT or Philly for a coastal event but these models have been forming the coastal low on the other side of the apps further southeast of the original low instead of more of an west-east alignment in response to their take on how the blocking impacts this storm. The result is taking the associated 850 and 700 lows a bit further south than optimal to keep more of a straighter axis of heavier precip going across PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That blocking isn't going anywhere...could be a northern Virginia special. This won't make a huge jump north due to the block but a 50-75 mile drift is nothing really plus I think we see a bleed north of the northern expanse if the Ccb even without a track shift north. I think places south of the turnpike are still very much in the game. South of. 80 even might still have an outside shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I will def agree on turnpike...but I would say MDT south...unv, seg and pottsville are south of 80 bit likely will watch from sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've seen this song and dance before and there's still a fair amount of time..I'm personally not writing off south of I-80 yet for seeing at least a few inches of snow from this...Especially in the western half of the state. I'll acknowledge a more pessimistic take in that region between I-78 and I-80 east of the Sus River where models have been showing that erosion of precip pretty well there. At and below the turnpike is in pretty good shape IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ggem gets precip well north but it also stalls the low too far west and floods warm air in on east wind at the surface so it's mostly rain even up into central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I will def agree on turnpike...but I would say MDT south...unv, seg and pottsville are south of 80 bit likely will watch from sidelines. Possible. But also keep in mind that the upper-air data from the h5 energy has yet to be fully integrated into the dataset yet so there can be some changes. Also, we are 3 1/2 days out from this thing happening so it's very likely that the bullseye now will be different from the bullseye on Wednesday. It may be 100 miles, it may be 25 miles, but even a 100 mile jog to the north gets a lot of folks in the game that weren't before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 PennLive hed: Central PA could see 10 inches of snow by midweek http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/snow_storm_harrisburg.html#incart_river_default WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 PennLive hed: Central PA could see 10 inches of snow by midweek http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/snow_storm_harrisburg.html#incart_river_default'>http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/snow_storm_harrisburg.html#incart_river_default WTF. Terrible article. Poor Barry, it reads like she picked the most sensational stuff to print... i hate that type of media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.