Central PA - Second Half of February 2013

[NeffsvilleWx]

Srefs are great...wow.

 

SREF's have been pretty terrible all winter, I wouldn't put too much stock in what they say.

[Wmsptwx]

You are in 1 inch qpf or more. Good precip way North.

[AllWeather]

SREF's have been pretty terrible all winter, I wouldn't put too much stock in what they say.

 

This is true. However, they've been consistently showing roughly the same thing over the past 7-8 runs, so I wouldn't count them out completely. What's also interesting with MOST of the models over the past 24 hours is that they've been showing a pretty substantial coastal stall (or crawl, it's moving, but slows down significantly) that tries to make a northeast turn near the coastline. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

You are in 1 inch qpf or more. Good precip way North.

 

yeah i know, some members also said we were getting 30+ inches a few weeks ago and we didn't even get a flake. Per 15z SREF guidance, LNS gets about 9." I'm not being negative, but It'd be far more believable if we had euro/GFS support.

 

Either way, I do like the consistency.

[jumpers61]

Can't wait for the new runs tonight.  With balloon data and obs to model this upper level energy better now that it's over land, I think we'll have a better look at the track.  They are starting to closely cluster together in timing and location as mentioned earlier.  Non-meteorological gut feeling is this storm will surprise us as it moves through.  Late season, boundry layer temperature concerns, northern extent of the moisture have me interested.

[Atomixwx]

Mr. Tolleris is quickly working his way to the "unfollow" button. He just posted this on facebook a bit ago. I love Walter Sobchak, but not when he's used to be a douchebag.

 

 

 

Also, note the hole. hahahaha

 

[Atomixwx]

Oh ****, here we go. Both Fox and NBC guys are posting again. Let's get this fight going lol.

 

Like, seriously, I want on-the-air trash talk while doing the forecast.

 

"Here we have the storm coming down from the midwest, which, for the idiot over at WGAL, I'll explain to you what the Midwest is on the forum, and watch as it heads for the coast."

 

followed by...

 

"Since our viewers tend to have more meteorological knowledge than, say, my counter-part from Faux 43, I won't have to dumb this down and show you the picture of the snowflake blowing out a candle. You know it's going to be blustery out there."

 

 

COME ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

[AllWeather]

Oh ****, here we go. Both Fox and NBC guys are posting again. Let's get this fight going lol.

Like, seriously, I want on-the-air trash talk while doing the forecast.

"Here we have the storm coming down from the midwest, which, for the idiot over at WGAL, I'll explain to you what the Midwest is on the forum, and watch as it heads for the coast."

followed by...

"Since our viewers tend to have more meteorological knowledge than, say, my counter-part from Faux 43, I won't have to dumb this down and show you the picture of the snowflake blowing out a candle. You know it's going to be blustery out there."

COME ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Where is this at?

[dcfox1]

Atomixwx, What????

[Atomixwx]

Nothing. A couple of weeks ago when both Allweather and Jumpers started posting I was joking about getting them to have at eachother because of the whole being from competing stations bit...

 

you know what? Not going to explain the joke. lol

[AllWeather]

Nothing. A couple of weeks ago when both Allweather and Jumpers started posting I was joking about getting them to have at eachother because of the whole being from competing stations bit...

 

you know what? Not going to explain the joke. lol

 

LMAO, I thought this was an actual TV Met in the area saying this. Now I can put away my axe and pitchfork. Jeff and I may work for competing stations, but we are cool with each other  .

 

Only if our schedules weren't so conflicting we could go grab a beer together, haha!

[Cashtown_Coop]

CTP ramping up their wording.  Text for Adams:

 

TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 30.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
 

.WEDNESDAY...SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATION. COLDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 30.
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
 

[paweather5]

LMAO, I thought this was an actual TV Met in the area saying this. Now I can put away my axe and pitchfork. Jeff and I may work for competing stations, but we are cool with each other  .

 

Only if our schedules weren't so conflicting we could go grab a beer together, haha!

 

 

I live in york pa and what I will do is put out a snow map for you guys to put on the air then if its wrong just say it was paweather5 from americanwx forum  snow map not ours. haha

 

But this does remind me of i think 2010 when it looked south all along and I was thinking well not going to get much then i got 20 inches. Alot to wait and see but I think the heavy snow has been getting ever so close to york.

 

One last thing I have flown a few of your coworkers from wgal in the helicopter out of lancaster airport. It was nice working with you guys on the river flooding footage.

[Cashtown_Coop]

from CTP AFD:

 

 

INITIAL ESTIMATES OF STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL VARY FROM JUST A FEW INCHES NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT...TO
BETWEEN 8-11 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES /WITH A
GENERAL 3-6 INCHES NEAR AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEG-KUNV-KFIG
LINE.

 

[Atomixwx]

Where are SEG and FIG?

[Atomixwx]

I thought this was an actual TV Met in the area saying this. Now I can put away my trident.

FIFY

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

Where are SEG and FIG?

 

SEG= Selinsgrove  FIG= Clearfield

[Atomixwx]

Thank you.

[Atomixwx]

That initial (operative word) estimate actually sounds more similar (and reasonable all things considered) to the December 19, 2009 event than the February 5, 2010 event for this area. Sharp cutoff north of State College, 8-10 inches in LSV with 3-6 in between. 

 

That would get everybody involved, somewhat here. It would be nice if we could bump the "line" from the turnpike to, say, US 22. I say US 22 because I-80 is probably prohibitively unrealistic at this point.

[AllWeather]

FIFY

 

Yes. Trident. My apologies

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

18z GFS crushes southern Franklin, Adams, and York Counties.  Would have to think the Euro would trend north tonight but who knows.    Little more than 48 hours until game time.  With the NAM and GFS trending wetter and north maybe they have ingested some better data now that the vort is entering a data rich zone. 

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

From the MA forum posted by Yoda,  Pretty good thrashing for the lower part of the valley.

[Eskimo Joe]

Mason-Dixon counties get thrashed pretty well.  Heavy, wet snow with an 8:1 ratio probably.

EDIT:  Critical Weather Day (CWD)  forthcoming from NCEP:

 

 

 

CWD WILL PROBABLY BE PUT IN PLACE LATER TODAY.. AFTER THE 12ZMODEL RUNS AND COORDINATION/DISCUSSIONS ARE CONDUCTED.. DUE TOTHE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS OF CENTRALAND EASTERN REGION DURING THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. MORETO COME ON CWD ISSUANCE AFTER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMPLETE.THE CWD WILL INSURE A MORE RELIABLE FLOW OF DATA AND MODEL OUTPUTTO NWS AND NCEP CENTERS.. DURING THIS WINTER STORM EVENT.NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Atomixwx]

Look at that sharp fn cutoff!

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Look at that sharp fn cutoff!

Harrisburg around 8 inches and Shrewsbury 18.  Little to the East of the river.  Insane gradient.  I would think it will smooth out some closer to the event, but either way it will be sharp wherever the final lines are established. 

[MAG5035]

Wow, 15z SREF plumes are pretty epic. KAOO was the winner in that department somehow. Lowest member has 4" and the highest 27" with an even distribution in between (i.e. there's no clustering with a couple off the wall members). Mean was 15". PSB (just west of State College) and SEG had means near 10 inches but more of a divide with a bit less than half the members 5" and under and over half of them 10" and over at SEG and the PSB station is a little bit higher. IPT mean is about 7" but a worse divide with a few 0 inch members and about 8 members 5" and under. The rest were above the mean (8-18"). That would be where I would probably axe the clustering of about 7 members that are in the 15-18" range... which still gives a mean of about 4" all the way up there. I do think the northern extent is going to tighten up on the SREF as we get closer but they continue to have a very strong signal to counter the Euro's insistence on just skirting the PA border and are just overall way more generous with big snow further north into central PA than other guidance. Something's got to give there. 

 

CTP had a great writeup this afternoon on this event which i recommend reading. Here's a couple points I found interesting:

 

 

 

THE FRESH IN...15Z RUN OF THE SREF HAS TRENDED EVEN FARTHER NORTHWITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF /AND POTENTIALLY VERY SNOWFALL/ ANDNOW PLACES THE 1 INCH QPF CONTOUR AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS KUNV ANDKJST...EAST TO KLNS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A SLIGHT NORTHERN SHIFTAND STRENGTHENING TO THE 850 EASTERLY JET...WHICH IS NOW SHOWN TO BEA WHOPPING -5 TO -6 SIGMA ACROSS SERN PA AT 18Z WED. WON`T BUY INTOTHESE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE PENN TURNPIKE JUST YET...ANDWOULD RATHER TAKE THE MORE PRUDENT AND CONSERVATIVE ROUTECONSIDERING THE LARGE...AND PERSISTENT DISAGREEMENT BY THE 00Z-12ZEURO MODELS WITH THEIR MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.

 

 

 

THE FEATURE THAT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE SREFAND GEFS /SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SRNTHIRD TO HALF OF PENN/ HAS BEEN THE TRACK OF THE 250 MB LOW CENTERRIGHT OVER KCMH AND KMGW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MORNING...WHICHPLACES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN UNDER AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT UPPERFLOW AND MAINTAINS A DEEP EAST TO NE FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHMUCH OF WED.

 

The extremely anomalous -5 to -6 sigma 850 jet values if verified, would be comparable to the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm in that department. That would certainly aid in having a pretty formidable snow shield for the areas that get under the better part of it. Just to be clear..outside of elevated areas just below PA that still appear to be the target area for this attm, we probably won't get to the totals of that storm just for the simple fact that we're a month later with this storm and that there really isn't a noteable cold air mass in place for this to aid in better accums especially where more precip might fall during the day Wednesday. That said, it's still gonna be a major impact for whoever ends up getting lucky. 

[Wmsptwx]

Dang cant watch a repeat of 2010. Good luck fellas hope you get crushed..I will stay out of the way and let experts do there thing.

[Porsche]

Be curious to see if this holds over the next 24 hours.

[AllWeather]

Still too early to throw out totals (and because I can't make that call right now with the information provided and the uncertainty still), but went with a generic "plowable" forecast probabilities. 

 

 

Sticking to my guns and going with a combination of the GFS/NAM/SREF, with an adjustment south due to the Euro not being in coordination. This will likely be adjusted, and I may regret making this, but gotta start making calls here tonight. Less than 72 hours away.