AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very little changes at hour 15 as well. Vortmax in northern plains is about 25 miles west of 06z run. Blocking is only slightly weaker (barely noticeable), and the ULL over Nova Scotia looks almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 where is she flying from? winds above the surface near heart of the storm are crazy strong... they may not verify blizzard but there should be some really strong gusts with the low visibilities where the best banding hits She is coming from Fl.. She is to land about 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hour 24: Maintaining that 25 mile west shift in the northern plains. Blocking is now stronger (barely) and ULL over Nova Scotia is weaker, but has slightly better vort-lobes around it. Vorticity is rounding the base now of the main piece of energy in the N plains. If I had to make a guess now for how it plays out -- I would say close to what 06z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hour 24: Maintaining that 25 mile west shift in the northern plains. Blocking is now stronger (barely) and ULL over Nova Scotia is weaker, but has slightly better vort-lobes around it. Vorticity is rounding the base now of the main piece of energy in the N plains. If I had to make a guess now for how it plays out -- I would say close to what 06z had. yep looks very close to 6z through 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Noticeable differences at hour 51. Slightly more negatively tilted, orientation of the h5 low is more oblong (N-S direction) and gets farther north. Lagging energy that brought the low back NE in previous runs looks to be in a better spot for an even more N pull. At the surface, it looks the same, but slightly less juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I like how CTP's night shift loser decides that day shift may need to actually do some work today. I hope the day shift guy throws the cement cart over the night shift guy in his write-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And definitely a N pull at hour 60 at the surface. Precip fills in near the PHL metro and down the coastal plain as well. Boston will get a solid hit from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Comparison of precip from 06z to 12z on the GFS... 06z: And 12z: That northward pull REALLY helped us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 American guidance north, warning criteria snow for Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster and Chester counties.EDIT: Still believe too far north, EURO consistency is too impressive not to ignore. Of course watch me be wrong with today's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston gets crushed on this one. I love weather for this reason. Going from nothing to a possible banger in Boston with 36 hours to go! They do better than D.C. does too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just want to say how great it is to have a met (All Weather) in our little subforum doing PBP...thank you...much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That gfs run is totally plausible too. Thoughts matt? Edit: the furthest north extent could be a little overdone, sorry north cpa friends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crazyblizzard, looks like you and I might be chasing this storm as part of our commute. Hopefully we get enough at the office so we dont have to make the commute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That gfs run is totally plausible too. Thoughts matt? Which Matt? Me or AllWeather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There was a substantial difference in the orientation of the ULL as it rounded the ridge. In previous runs of the GFS, it had been getting more and more negatively tilted, and here it was the most neg tilt I've seen yet from this system. And the leftover troughiness/vorticity from back in the N plains & New York yanked this baby north and up the coast. Also hearing that the UKMET is starting to reflect this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not sure why you added my comment Jamie, but this is just a hobby for me sure I love snow but it is what it is and we can't control Mother Nature. If this ends up south I could drive to it if I wanted to....work stresses me out, this is just fun for me. Did because I thought you were agreeing with me. Ok let me clear this up, as a weather hobbyist it is fun when you get weather that is interesting. Do we all just fall to pieces when a storm doesnt go our way? No. We move on with our day. This is the only place we have to voice our displeasure when a storm misses us without looking insane. And admit it, most of us are at work sneaking a look at the models hoping against hope for an unlikely bump north haha. All true except one thing - I am unconvinced others in other subforums don't just move on with our day. Man, some of them go ape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Comparison of precip from 06z to 12z on the GFS... 06z: Screen Shot 2013-03-04 at 10.49.47 AM.png And 12z: Screen Shot 2013-03-04 at 10.49.30 AM.png That northward pull REALLY helped us out WOW...so now you have the GFS and NAM at 12z so different for S C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per that run it would appear that the 1.00 line makes it... to US 22 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hopefully we get enough at the office so we dont have to make the commute! I'm sure I'll have to go in, my employer never shuts down. Besides, I kind of enjoy driving in the snow. As long as I'm in my wife's SUV, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any matt welcome, enjoy both of your input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did because I thought you were agreeing with me. All true except one thing - I am unconvinced others in other subforums don't just move on with our day. Man, some of them go ape. definitely am Jamie. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol, GFS gives my homestead .50", everything else nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Isn't the negative tilt that GFS and Euro showed on Friday (much more extreme than what is shown currently), a plausible scenario that the models are moving towards. Maybe not the extreme from Friday but perhaps more then what is currently being shown. Being in the Lancaster snow hole this year, this would be a nice wrap up before Spring starts full tilt. Come on snow move north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gfs and nam really hammer us here in the exit 4 area off i 83 (first exit across md line.) Any bets on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any matt welcome, enjoy both of your input I think it's plausible, but keep in mind it's still an outlier at this point in time. It was the first model to suggest that some backend troughiness/vorticity would help capture and pull the ULL north and up the coast (I think it was yesterday AM it showed this first). One thing that is impressive for this, is that many of the GFS ensemble members have been in great agreement with a northward pull. It's not just GFS OP. So it's either a major failure of the GFS and its ensembles (I find it hard to believe with good agreement from the members), or a miss by the Euro. The one thing for sure is that the Euro does not have ANY interaction near the east coast with the ULL over Nova Scotia and thus it never pulls north. I can't remember the last time I saw this much disagreement with the globals with this amount of time left. If the GFS is right, warning level snows south of the PA turnpike and heavy snow up the 95 corridor into Boston. If the Euro is right, we see barely anything south of the TP and Boston stays high and dry. I imagine there are millions of dollars in eastern seaboard Dept. of Transportation decisions up in the air right now, and if the GFS is right, there won't be much time to implement plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per that run it would appear that the 1.00 line makes it... to US 22 lol I was thinking more of a RT. 30 Gettysburg to Intercourse kinda Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it's plausible, but keep in mind it's still an outlier at this point in time. It was the first model to suggest that some backend troughiness/vorticity would help capture and pull the ULL north and up the coast (I think it was yesterday AM it showed this first). One thing that is impressive for this, is that many of the GFS ensemble members have been in great agreement with a northward pull. It's not just GFS OP. So it's either a major failure of the GFS and its ensembles (I find it hard to believe with good agreement from the members), or a miss by the Euro. The one thing for sure is that the Euro does not have ANY interaction near the east coast with the ULL over Nova Scotia and thus it never pulls north. I can't remember the last time I saw this much disagreement with the globals with this amount of time left. If the GFS is right, warning level snows south of the PA turnpike and heavy snow up the 95 corridor into Boston. If the Euro is right, we see barely anything south of the TP and Boston stays high and dry. I imagine there are millions of dollars in eastern seaboard Dept. of Transportation decisions up in the air right now, and if the GFS is right, there won't be much time to implement plans Brother, i wouldn't wanna be you today/tomorrow and trying to give notice..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I was thinking more of a RT. 30 Gettysburg to Intercourse kinda Nut That may be it. I may have seen the wrong number looking at the chart lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.