Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Didn't take long for the attacks to continue lol *** HOW BAD IS THE 12Z GFS ?? *** no other model has the Low 100 miles NORTH of orf and 100 miles ENE or RIC no other model has the Low over wallops island / Salisbury MD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Did because I thought you were agreeing with me. All true except one thing - I am unconvinced others in other subforums don't just move on with our day. Man, some of them go ape. some also do not like when a location outside of that region is discussed during PBP of model runs when they end up showing more snow outside the region than locally i have noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET 12z is north a good bit...looks like it's the world versus the EURO for now, but I'm still cautious and siding with EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Didn't take long for the attacks to continue lol *** HOW BAD IS THE 12Z GFS ?? ***no other model has the Low 100 miles NORTH of orf and 100 miles ENE or RIC no other model has the Low over wallops island / Salisbury MD... gosh DT is so unreadable these days...it got so bad that I had to unlike him on facebook. He is just plain awful. As soon as a model go against snow in Richmond he is all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think it's plausible, but keep in mind it's still an outlier at this point in time. It was the first model to suggest that some backend troughiness/vorticity would help capture and pull the ULL north and up the coast (I think it was yesterday AM it showed this first). One thing that is impressive for this, is that many of the GFS ensemble members have been in great agreement with a northward pull. It's not just GFS OP. So it's either a major failure of the GFS and its ensembles (I find it hard to believe with good agreement from the members), or a miss by the Euro. The one thing for sure is that the Euro does not have ANY interaction near the east coast with the ULL over Nova Scotia and thus it never pulls north. I can't remember the last time I saw this much disagreement with the globals with this amount of time left. If the GFS is right, warning level snows south of the PA turnpike and heavy snow up the 95 corridor into Boston. If the Euro is right, we see barely anything south of the TP and Boston stays high and dry. I imagine there are millions of dollars in eastern seaboard Dept. of Transportation decisions up in the air right now, and if the GFS is right, there won't be much time to implement plans crazy part about that is each of them have been nearly consistent on their own run to run... not seeing much trend from say GFS to Euro or Euro to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET 12z is north a good bit...looks like it's the world versus the EURO for now, but I'm still cautious and siding with EURO. Funny, I've been reading for the past 18 hours that it's the GFS vs the World. I even just saw this picture proving it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Brother, i wouldn't wanna be you today/tomorrow and trying to give notice..wow Ha, tell me about it. And Doug Allen is on vacation so guess who gets the evenings today through Wednesday? This guy! I don't mind, though. We haven't been hyping this up very much, unlike other local media outlets *cough*, so for it to be a miss wouldn't be a huge bust for us. In a situation like this, you have to start conservatively, then ramp up if there begins to be an agreement on a snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Funny, I've been reading for the past 18 hours that it's the GFS vs the World. I even just saw this picture proving it.. Heh, this was the impression I was under up here in NEPA too. Seems like the GFS is the only one giving us any [meaningful] precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah Psu, I also heard a few people say gfs is over doing the precip in northern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 funny if I remember right back in the '96 blizzard it was the euro that was the only model showing the storm coming north. if the gfs is right with this storm it will be reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm pretty sure the GFS had us getting .25-.50 QPF right before the 5-6 February 2010 event, and we wound up with almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sure did...we were I. .5 to .75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I could see CTP adding Franklin and Adams counties to the watch this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I could see CTP adding Franklin and Adams counties to the watch this afternoon. it seems like everyone is in a holding pattern until euro comes out before deciding what to do with any updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 it seems like everyone is in a holding pattern until euro comes out before deciding what to do with any updates probably a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the trend continues, I would expect a hwo to be issued for most areas. A kind of ramping up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the trend continues, I would expect a hwo to be issued for most areas. A kind of ramping up... HWO already out for all of CTP: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA724 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013PAZ017>019-024>028-036-056-057-059-063>066-051230-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-724 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY IS LOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WINTER STORM TRACKINGFROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW TOSEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON THEEXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.$$ PHI: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1127 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-061-062-105-051630-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-UPPER BUCKS-1127 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEWJERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRALPENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A STORM WHICH MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THEAREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WITH GUSTYWINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL NO CERTAINTY OF PRECIPITATIONOCCURRING IN THIS AREA BUT THE CHANCES HAVE INCREASED. THERE ISMODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIME DUE TOUNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTCOASTAL STORM..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.$$ HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1127 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013PAZ060-101>103-051630-BERKS-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-1127 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ANDSOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAYINTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATIONS HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS.THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIMEDUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM. A WINTER STORM WATCHMAY BE ISSUED IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR WEDNESDAY ANDWEDNESDAY EVENING. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FORUPDATES..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.$$ PBZ: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA343 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-050845-GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-343 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHWESTPENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHERCONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 My Euro guess (it is not out, simply what I feel it will show!) UNV: .0" JST: .2" IPT: .4" MDT: .1" York: .4" BWI: .9" IAD: 1" For fun Charlottesville: 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gosh DT is so unreadable these days...it got so bad that I had to unlike him on facebook. He is just plain awful. As soon as a model go against snow in Richmond he is all over it. He has gone full tilt lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm pretty sure the GFS had us getting .25-.50 QPF right before the 5-6 February 2010 event, and we wound up with almost nothing. The GFS is not high resolution enough to get the sharp back edge where the conflunce is correct. Thus the endges get "smoothed" out some and so the GFS will extend the light to moderate precip too far out. Generally with major events like this where there is a 2" qpf max, I want to be inside the .75 qpf on the GFS to feel safe. Once you get close to the .5 qpf its verly likely there is a very sharp cutoff right near there and the GFS will not show that very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NCEP Diagnostic Disco from Paul Kocin. Read it and weep folks: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1110 AM EST MON MAR 04 2013VALID MAR 04/1200 UTC THRU MAR 08/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......12Z NAM EVALUATION...MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS WILL BE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANTSYSTEM HEADING...STAGNANT UPR CYCLONE LINGERING ACRS COASTAL UPR NEW ENGLAND...THE UPPER LOW EAST OF MAINE BY MONDAY EVENING IS FINALLY FORECASTTO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH IT LEAVES BEHIND A WEAKDISTURBANCE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM HASSOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS BUT INGENERAL IS WITHIN A REASONABLE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS....PAIR OF DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ANDSWRN U.S......EVENTUAL MERGER AND AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST LEADING TO SSIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEEVALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS COMPLEXSYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SYSTEMATICMODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM CAMP AND THE ECMWF/UKMETCAMP. THE NCEP MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF ENSEMBLES/NAM/GFS/GEFS ARE SYSTEMATICALLY FARTHER NORTH THAN WITH THE UPPER LOW STARTINGON TUESDAY OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INCREASING ONWEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 09ZSREF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARD TOSPEED APPEARS PRETTY UNIFORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING WHEN THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.OVERNIGHT...THE 00Z UKMET TRENDED NORTH FROM EARLIER RUNS ANDAPPEARED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHEREAS EARLIER ITWAS MORE OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWFHAVE INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHERNORTH AND FASTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE EASTCOAST. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS THROUGH 6Z HAVE ALSO BEEN VERYSTABLE...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ALSOCONTINUING.IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCETHE CYCLONE IS EAST OF THE COAST...ALLOWING SNOW TO REACHNORTHWARD INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMETHINGTHAT THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THEUKMET DOES...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN DO NOT. THE NAM500 MB LOW IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REASONABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONSSHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS SLIGHTLYFARTHER NORTH OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST BYWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL ASTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS...EXCEPT FOR THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHERETHE SURFACE LOWS ARE NEARLY EXACT....UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIABY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED BY THE 00ZECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN/ AND THE 09Z SREFMEAN THROUGHTHURSDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES LEADING UP TO THAT TIME. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MEANS ONWEDNESDAY WITH AN ODD 500 MB FEATURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIAWEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STARTS TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW BY THURSDAYEVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT IS ALSO DEMONSTRATED BY THE00Z UKMET BUT THE OTHER MODELS APPEAR TO KEEP THE TROUGH AN OPENSYSTEM....UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZING OVER ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVINGTOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY...THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NORTH OFMINNESOTA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THAT MAINTAINS ITSELF THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANSMAINTAIN THE SYSTEM INTO THURSDAY WHERE THE SREF/GEFS DO NOT. THE00Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS ALSO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THEFORECAST BUT THE 12Z NAM MOSTLY LOSES THE FEATURE BY THURSDAYMORNING....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtmlKOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm pretty sure the GFS had us getting .25-.50 QPF right before the 5-6 February 2010 event, and we wound up with almost nothing. Sure did...we were I. .5 to .75. We had about .5 on the GFS and got 12-15" from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We had about .5 on the GFS and got 12-15" from that one. That's the kind of attitude I wanna hear. P007 and P008 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 getting some encouraging info from the Philly form indicating EURO is trending north now...3, 2, 1 DT will begin to bash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z euro is a hair north (~25 miles maybe) of the 0z run at 48 and 54hr... better for southeast PA but still not as north as GFS and not turning up coast at 66 like GFS... still north of 0z at 66hr though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh my god, DT will blow up if EURO goes north. "The 18z runs are TRASH!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's the kind of attitude I wanna hear. P007 and P008 please. Heh. Wish I had a better feeling tho, lolz. getting some encouraging info from the Philly form indicating EURO is trending north now...3, 2, 1 DT will begin to bash it. and if anyone disagrees, tell them how hard he banged their mom the night before. I've seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z euro is a hair north (~25 miles maybe) of the 0z run at 48 and 54hr... better for southeast PA but still not as north as GFS and not turning up coast at 66 like GFS... still north of 0z at 66hr though... there's still time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z euro is a hair north (~25 miles maybe) of the 0z run at 48 and 54hr... better for southeast PA but still not as north as GFS and not turning up coast at 66 like GFS... still north of 0z at 66hr though... I thought maybe it would be more than that. Certainly no help for forecasters in our area. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Apparently the .5" mark goes from Philly to Lancaster to Harrisburg, as per a guy I trust (zwyts) on the mid atlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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