djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 looking better for williamsport... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the Euro is wrong, I'll eat my hat and buy every person here a beer. quoted for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yea I really have a feeling Euro may be way to go. Who knows though, I doubt we see much movement either way at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like the 12z NAM is coming in with more precip, at least in the bulls eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What's the timing of this? originaly i thought Tuesday late into Wednesday, now it looks like it starts Wednesday Morning and snows through the day? Also, i'm not sure us in the Harrisburg area have reached the their projected high temps in the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z NAM is just teasing us right now just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like the 12z NAM is coming in with more precip, at least in the bulls eye. yea it looks wetter and a little stronger... quite a hit for DC area at hr54 lol...again it looks to be turning north once it gets to the coast... fantasy solution would be for it to slow down and slowly turn north near the coast... one can dream right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM holds serve..geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What's the timing of this? originaly i thought Tuesday late into Wednesday, now it looks like it starts Wednesday Morning and snows through the day? Also, i'm not sure us in the Harrisburg area have reached the their projected high temps in the last couple days. Per the 12z NAM we are out of it, further south along the Mason Dixon Line is where the main action. BWI and DC it is quite a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM holds serve..geez. It's a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z NAM is just teasing us right now just to our south. You're not kidding. Just a sneeze from this thing in either direction would have HUGE forecast implications for us north of the M-D line. Baltimore gets nailed on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per the 12z NAM we are out of it, further south along the Mason Dixon Line is where the main action. BWI and DC it is quite a hit. yeah, but i'm still riding this pony to the finish line.....for a plowable snow! Whats a 25-50 mile jog to the North among friends right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Basically southern pa is on the edge of precip in a confluence type event...those things shorten your life believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Basically southern pa is on the edge of precip in a confluence type event...those things shorten your life believe me. Yes, because if anyone gets that worked up over snow they should be shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, because if anyone gets that worked up over snow they should be shot. you're on your A game already this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, because if anyone gets that worked up over snow they should be shot. +1! I convinced myself last week this isn't our storm, so these close calls aren't bothering me one iota. It's the way to go IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Shoot me then lol, I love the stuff. Btw cleared out and sun feels great today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yeah, but i'm still riding this pony to the finish line.....for a plowable snow! Whats a 25-50 mile jog to the North among friends right? yep I am with you. But this model run of the NAM is just a slap in the face for us. 45 minutes to an hour down I-83 and it is heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif wow... It's actually quite funny how close it is to being a hit for SC PA. A 50 miles jog to the north would have HUGE forecast implications for us. 50 miles in weather terms is like a "step" on a human frame of reference. If this thing "steps" to the north (which at 36 hours, it might), then we may see something out of nothing. Then there's the corollary - that it could step 50 miles south and we hardly see anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Shoot me then lol, I love the stuff. Btw cleared out and sun feels great today. no sun here yet, its 26 but feels like 22 yep I am with you. But this model run of the NAM is just a slap in the face for us. 45 minutes to an hour down I-83 and it is heavy snow. by next run, we will be in the mix again, isn't that how it works? push away, pull back in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Shoot me then lol, I love the stuff. Btw cleared out and sun feels great today. +1! I convinced myself last week this isn't our storm, so these close calls aren't bothering me one iota. It's the way to go IMO. you're on your A game already this morning! yep I am with you. But this model run of the NAM is just a slap in the face for us. 45 minutes to an hour down I-83 and it is heavy snow. I'm just saying I don't understand having a hobby that stresses you out that much. If we get it, great. If not, no big deal. I don't think with this storm anything can be counted out right now. As for us up in true central PA, looking around at some of the posts, this isn't going to be our last shot at a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's actually quite funny how close it is to being a hit for SC PA. A 50 miles jog to the north would have HUGE forecast implications for us. 50 miles in weather terms is like a "step" on a human frame of reference. If this thing "steps" to the north (which at 36 hours, it might), then we may see something out of nothing. Then there's the corollary - that it could step 50 miles south and we hardly see anything! It is unreal. definitely love to have blocking to force storms south but in this case just a little too far south per the NAM. This is definitely when I don't want to be you and have to forecast this stuff. We could have nothing to over a foot of snow on the ground with just a slight jog to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crazyblizzard, looks like you and I might be chasing this storm as part of our commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm just saying I don't understand having a hobby that stresses you out that much. If we get it, great. If not, no big deal. I don't think with this storm anything can be counted out right now. As for us up in true central PA, looking around at some of the posts, this isn't going to be our last shot at a snowstorm. Not sure why you added my comment Jamie, but this is just a hobby for me sure I love snow but it is what it is and we can't control Mother Nature. If this ends up south I could drive to it if I wanted to....work stresses me out, this is just fun for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok let me clear this up, as a weather hobbyist it is fun when you get weather that is interesting. Do we all just fall to pieces when a storm doesnt go our way? No. We move on with our day. This is the only place we have to voice our displeasure when a storm misses us without looking insane. And admit it, most of us are at work sneaking a look at the models hoping against hope for an unlikely bump north haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok let me clear this up, as a weather hobbyist it is fun when you get weather that is interesting. Do we all just fall to pieces when a storm doesnt go our way? No. We move on with our day. This is the only place we have to voice our displeasure when a storm misses us without looking insane. And admit it, most of us are at work sneaking a look at the models hoping against hope for an unlikely bump north haha. Really, i usually kick the dog! I'm just kidding, sorry PETA... Wednesday could be interesting for my sister law flying in to HIA. the storm could really impact flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is rolling. Some minor differences at H5 at hour 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok let me clear this up, as a weather hobbyist it is fun when you get weather that is interesting. Do we all just fall to pieces when a storm doesnt go our way? No. We move on with our day. This is the only place we have to voice our displeasure when a storm misses us without looking insane. And admit it, most of us are at work sneaking a look at the models hoping against hope for an unlikely bump north haha. You seem to live and die by the model outputs . anyway, I am a deep south boy who love to see snow. I guess it goes back to when I was about 9 and we had a snow storm close schools that day. I thougt it was the best of both worlds. lots of snow and no school. Since now I work/teach at a college, I also look forward to massive snows and closed schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Really, i usually kick the dog! I'm just kidding, sorry PETA... Wednesday could be interesting for my sister law flying in to HIA. the storm could really impact flights. where is she flying from? winds above the surface near heart of the storm are crazy strong... they may not verify blizzard but there should be some really strong gusts with the low visibilities where the best banding hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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