Cashtown_Coop Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still too early to throw out totals (and because I can't make that call right now with the information provided and the uncertainty still), but went with a generic "plowable" forecast probabilities. Capture.JPG Sticking to my guns and going with a combination of the GFS/NAM/SREF, with an adjustment south due to the Euro not being in coordination. This will likely be adjusted, and I may regret making this, but gotta start making calls here tonight. Less than 72 hours away. this looks like a good starting point to me. dealing with the general public is touchy and this storm has already been hyped up through social media so a conservative approach is smart btw, what's "plowable"? 12"+ right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this looks like a good starting point to me. dealing with the general public is touchy and this storm has already been hyped up through social media so a conservative approach is smart btw, what's "plowable"? 12"+ right lol PennDOT considers 4"+ plowable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 PennDOT considers 4"+ plowable I had anywhere between 3-4" considered plowable when I made the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 PennDOT considers 4"+ plowable I had anywhere between 3-4" considered plowable when I made the map. I was joking. I figured 4" was a good plowable amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Mid Atlantic forum is unreadable. People are freaking out over a 10 mile shift of a model and 0.1" QPF difference. Thank the gods this sub-forum doesn't have that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Mid Atlantic forum is unreadable. People are freaking out over a 10 mile shift of a model and 0.1" QPF difference. Thank the gods this sub-forum doesn't have that problem. So many over in those parts. If we were looking at a big one, it'd be likely we'd see some of those folks come out of the wood-work around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Mid Atlantic forum is unreadable. People are freaking out over a 10 mile shift of a model and 0.1" QPF difference. Thank the gods this sub-forum doesn't have that problem. Heh, yeah, we just have Wmsptwx poo-pooing every model run when it comes out. j/k, man, you're cool. ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have a bottle of crown royal black coming my way if it snows 4" or greater( for here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Mid Atlantic forum is unreadable. People are freaking out over a 10 mile shift of a model and 0.1" QPF difference. Thank the gods this sub-forum doesn't have that problem.Well we have the benefit of knowing it won't actually snow here. (: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We're also adults here where I'd be willing to bet the MA and NY forums have a bunch of the old accuweather.com forum kids on it. Funny aside, I was "banned for life" from Accuwx's forums for being too hard on wishcasters. I also remember posters on there referring to themselves as "Junior Meteorologists" and posting in a thread as if they were the guy at NWS who makes the public warning announcements. Funny stuff. I'd be willing to wager that the youngest regular here is in his/her mid twenties. After 21, you tend to only act stupid on teh interwebs for teh lulz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have a bottle of crown royal black coming my way if it snows 4" or greater( for here) I promise you, whomever wagered that will make sure to be in your back yard with a blowtorch to ensure you never measure 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT issued his "first call"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm kinda feeling pretty good about it, honestly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From his "first guess". I have a hard time believing this guy is as "busy" in the consultant business as he claims to be with as unprofessional as he is. Just his latest hit... "Now if the concept that weather changes and forecast sometimes change at the last second is difficult for you to comprehend... Please stop reading this and let another inmate use the PC ok? No really that is the reason. In addition let me also inform you that the skies blue... Water is a wet... And women have secrets." While I laughed like hell at the bolded segment, that's unprofessional as all hell. I can laugh at it, because I'm not in the business of "weather consultancy". If I were, I'd probably give that crack a wide berth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is going to be south of it's 18z counterpart. It was quite a different look at the storm evolution, actually. H5 upper low took longer to close off, but blocking was weaker and farther NE and so was the UL off of Nova Scotia. The only thing keeping it from being a farther north solution was likely the fact that it was slower to close off than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And it shifts the heaviest precip farther south by like 75 miles. Keeps folks north of M-D line high and dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DC special on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DC special on the Nam. Actually it's a Richmond special verbatim of the 00z. DCA *only* gets about an inch of QPF. BWI about a half inch. Anyone north of the M-D line in Central PA - Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Qpf totals: These are estimations UNV: 0 AOO: 0.18 JST: 0.25 MDT: 0 THV : 0 LNS: 0 FIG: 0.02 West of I-99 it pretty much follows US 422 to Ebensburg. On to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREFS have also begun to back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just saw the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm kinda feeling pretty good about it, honestly!I bet you entry to a Senators game we don't see 1", my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And it shifts the heaviest precip farther south by like 75 miles. Keeps folks north of M-D line high and dry.... well not the run we wanted but it was only one run. nams wheelhouse is inside 48. now if gfs trends toward euro then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Game over I-70 north. All hail King EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 aaaand thats why we keep expectations low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Game over I-70 north. All hail King EURO. Not over yet. Still have the GFS & Euro. Oh, and like 2 days to change some details. As much as it dropped south tonight via the NAM, it could correct back north depending on the evolution of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With the SW sharp cutoff, I am hoping for at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ohhhh confluence, why ya gotta be like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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