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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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Consensus seems to building around 4-8". I personally, will be very happy with that. Nothing epic, of course, but enough to refresh. And dense enough to solidify the base.

And then theres this tuesday wednesday deal. Good times.

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Event totals: 7.5” Snow/0.34” L.E.

 

We picked up an additional half inch of snow during the day today, which may mark the end of this event based on the radar.  Next we’ll have to see what the potential weekend storm brings.

 

I updated the storm totals as of this evening for the Vermont ski areas; the north to south listing is below.  Smugg’s made a big leap in accumulation from this morning, and aside from Burke being way out to the east, you can see the numbers line right up down the spine.

 

Jay Peak: 27”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 24”

Stowe: 18”

Bolton Valley: 16”

Mad River Glen: 16”

Sugarbush: 12”

Pico: 8”

Killington: 8”

Okemo: 6”

Bromley: 8”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 7”

Can someone explain to me how exactly the "Jay Cloud" works? Meaning, why in events like this one and the last upslope, Jay can get significantly more snow than points south? I skied Jay yesterday (and will again today) and can vouch for >20" of low-density. And yes, wind slab cracks and some impressive slough runs in the steep woods, leaving little crowns behind ... Interesting ...

 

Its proximity to the deeper moisture source, which in upslope events is usually in the Maritimes or northern ME or southern Quebec. 

 

Its more like the "Spine" cloud as you can see amounts taper as you move south, but still fairly significant.  I mean Smuggs had 24 inches (so that is not necessarily "significantly more snow than points south").  This event was certainly more favored than usual in the far north, as lots of towns (not just Jay Peak) had accumulations in excess of 20" from northern Lamoille County north into southern Canada.  You could see this setting up a couple days in advance with the best moisture progged to remain over that far northern VT region.

 

Jay Peak does jackpot in these events, but sometimes these things will jackpot eastern Chittenden County from Underhill to Bolton.  Sometimes its eastern Addison County.  We sometimes joke that the Jay Cloud got lost and is sitting over Bolton or Mansfield or Sugarbush.  But usually you can draw a direct correlation to latitude on the Spine and snowfall, all because of proximity to the moisture source and storm circulation which has to be to our E or NE in order to provide W or NW winds into the Spine.

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Exactly. It's not a "jay" cloud. It's a "spine cloud."  Sometimes Jay gets the biggest snowfall. Sometimes Smuggs. Sometimes Stowe, MRG, Bush...and so forth.

It's about wind direction, location of moisture source, temperature profiles....and a dozen other mesoscale features.

 

Jay just does a very good job of owning the orographic precip that falls along the spine.

 

Ummm, in other news, anybody else really really interested in Wed-Sat of next week? Me likes cut-off lows.

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Ummm, in other news, anybody else really really interested in Wed-Sat of next week? Me likes cut-off lows.

 

Yeah, the GFS is pretty weird next week.  A close brush to start, then cutoff and retrograding some if I'm seeing things correctly.

 

Could prove to be an interesting week--though retrograders here in eastern VT don't do a lot.  It's the one time we seem to get shadowed some from the western Whites. 

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I've posted this in a few places... Not sure where the nh crew is hiding. I'm headed to Portsmouth for the day Saturday to go snow shoeing. How far north and west away from the coast should I expect to travel for good snow depth? I've seen many conflicting reports of snow depth on the coast.

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I've posted this in a few places... Not sure where the nh crew is hiding. I'm headed to Portsmouth for the day Saturday to go snow shoeing. How far north and west away from the coast should I expect to travel for good snow depth? I've seen many conflicting reports of snow depth on the coast.

Snowdepths on the NH seacoast:

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?ql=station&zoom=&loc=42.773+N%2C+70.551+W&var=snow_depth_shallow&dy=2013&dm=2&dd=22&dh=16&snap=1&o11=1&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&lbl=m&mode=pan&extents=us&min_x=-76.766666666669&min_y=41.908333333334&max_x=-69.875000000002&max_y=45.783333333334&coord_x=++-70.551&coord_y=+++42.773&zbox_n=43.367916666667334&zbox_s=42.756527777778444&zbox_e=-70.54263020833537&zbox_w=-71.11980729166873&metric=0&width=800&height=450&nw=800&nh=450&h_o=0&font=0&js=1&uc=0

 

Go to Pawtuckaway west of Portsmouth in NH or maybe Mount Agamenticus in York, ME for good outdoor rec in that area.

 

My old stomping grounds...  :loon:

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I've posted this in a few places... Not sure where the nh crew is hiding. I'm headed to Portsmouth for the day Saturday to go snow shoeing. How far north and west away from the coast should I expect to travel for good snow depth? I've seen many conflicting reports of snow depth on the coast.

I hope this helps but you will be better if you can get an on the ground report.

post-1533-0-05187300-1361551469_thumb.jp

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You guys are the best, thanks! I wish trails.com had snowdepths posted.

 

No problem, man.  Have fun--Portsmouth is a cool town and there's some outdoor recreation not too far away.  Mount Ag. in York is closer than Pawtuckaway to Portsmouth but both are certainly within striking distance.

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No problem, man. Have fun--Portsmouth is a cool town and there's some outdoor recreation not too far away. Mount Ag. in York is closer than Pawtuckaway to Portsmouth but both are certainly within striking distance.

I love Portsmouth. We are headed up their tonight and staying downtown. Wish I could spend the weekend but its not going to work out. Girlfriend is dying to try out her new snowshoes.

Thanks for all the help

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You guys are the best, thanks! I wish trails.com had snowdepths posted.

you might be better off on ice skates. The snow pack is practically bullet proof lol

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This forecast looks good albeit I'd assume the lower end of the ranges... but the NWS grid ranges in the point 'n click can be a bit misleading sometimes if you add them.

 

I think about 3-4 inches on the mountain and 2-3" in town is where we are at with this one.

 

  • Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow. Low around 23. South wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • Sunday Light snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Sunday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

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We might actually do ok around here with the northern system and the trough between it and the coastal.

 

And then there's next week. Should be interesting.

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This forecast looks good albeit I'd assume the lower end of the ranges... but the NWS grid ranges in the point 'n click can be a bit misleading sometimes if you add them.

 

I think about 3-4 inches on the mountain and 2-3" in town is where we are at with this one.

 

  • Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow. Low around 23. South wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • Sunday Light snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Sunday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE

RELATIVELY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER

TEMPERATURES WITH THE SOUTHERN GREENS TAKING HOME THE HIGHEST

AMOUNTS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925MB

AND ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS

WELL AS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 2-DAY TOTALS FROM 3" IN THE VALLEYS TO 6" IN

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

 

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Maybe I'm setting the bar too low, but I consider any snow after this point a bonus. Not that it's well received, but after March 15th we can transition to weather that I can spend some time on my screened in porch during the afternoon. I know my cats agree..lol.

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WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE

RELATIVELY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER

TEMPERATURES WITH THE SOUTHERN GREENS TAKING HOME THE HIGHEST

AMOUNTS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925MB

AND ABOVE WILL LEAD TO SOME SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS

WELL AS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 2-DAY TOTALS FROM 3" IN THE VALLEYS TO 6" IN

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

Yeah that looks spot on. I'm surprised its already near freezing in a lot of valley spots. I really don't expect more than 1-3" at home at 750ft.

1500-3000ft is another ball game as it usually is.

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I could tell it was mild this morning the moment I woke up.  We heat 100% with wood so the house temp can fluctuate a bit and it felt quite warm upstairs when I opened my eyes.  Sure enough, I come downstairs and find it at 27F with a steady southerly already blowing.

 

Maybe I'm setting the bar too low, but I consider any snow after this point a bonus. Not that it's well received, but after March 15th we can transition to weather that I can spend some time on my screened in porch during the afternoon. I know my cats agree..lol.

I hear ya.  After a nice base it set, which we have, I've always been an appreciater of moderate events--easier to clean up and they keep things fresh.  Love your avatar picture, btw.  Montpelier?

 

Well, at least it looks like we'll all get a few inches out of the deal.  It's all good.

 

 

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Belatedly, thanks pf and adk re "spine cloud." I realize the devil's in the details - which is why, for example, the spine south of I-89 was favored in the late December upslope events but lately north of 89 has been the sweeter spot. I also was interested to see that in this event Smuggs was in the same ballpark as Jay, which, given Smuggs' west-facing aspect and the decreasing Froude numbers as the event progressed, was what my extremely amateur wx geek brain had come to expect. 

 

But for now I'd like to turn my continuing self-education to the subject of occluded lows. From the GYX AFD this a.m.:

 

UPR LOW WILL CUTOFF NEARBY NEW ENGLAND INTO THEWEEKEND...WITH CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WX BEING THE RULE RATHER THANTHE EXCEPTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY ADDITIONAL NRN STREAMENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPR LOW PRES...AS THISCOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL. NWP HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FORSEVERAL DAYS...OR IT COULD TREND TO A MORE INVERTED TROF LOOK WITHTIME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION...BUT GOOD CONSENSUS WITHLONG WAVE PATTERN...FOUND IT HARD TO STRAY FROM AT LEAST CHANCEPOP IN THE EXTENDED. USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND 12Z/22 ECMWFFOR POP GRIDS...ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. WE ARE ALSO AT ARELATIVE LOSS FOR COLD AIR. 00Z/23 GEFS CONTINUE SEASONABLE TOSLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL H8 AND H9 TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED. THISTRANSLATES TO SFC TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WITHMILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THANKS TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

 

As it happens I am taking AIARE level I avy training next weekend and it's looking like there should be all sorts of interesting layers in the snowpack for the field work on MWN ... funny to think that just a few weeks ago I was wondering if there would be anything but sheer ice up there.

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Snowing here and coming down at a good clip.

Right at 32....

Here too. Light to at times moderate. I guess I was expecting it to begin later in the pm. Oh we'll, beggars can't be choosers.

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