WidreMann Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 really? it's the same time for me, maybe my cookies are outdated or something? It's fixed now. I'll delete my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 trends are better tonight at least, like widre said itll take a lot more for most members to see more than a token flake or two. the weenie in me is holding out hope that as the event draws closer the models will get a better handle on the precip amts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trends are slightly better, but it's going to take more than some token tweaks to bring our storm back. I'll wait till 00z tomorrow night to throw in the towel utterly. Yea I think I am going to have the same gameplan. I am a lot more interested in this little 51 hr GFS run that blasts thru here than I was seeing as how it was a non event to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yea I think I am going to have the same gameplan. I am a lot more interested in this little 51 hr GFS run that blasts thru here than I was seeing as how it was a non event to begin. yea the trends are definately in northern nc/southern va's favor tonight, potential for a quick 1" or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Does anyone have any UK Met, GGEM, and NOGAPS (LOL) info yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Does anyone have any UK Met, GGEM, and NOGAPS (LOL) info yet? I don't think any of those are out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't think any of those are out yet. yep model blackout until around 12:47 when the euro and others start running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 yep model blackout until around 12:47 when the euro and others start running. Perfect timing for my brain blackout until around 8 AM, when all those models have already run and produced what I'm sure to be disappointing results. Still, this winter has been better than last. Token snow and sleet is better than an hour of light snow that melts overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ALERT: 0z Ukie has nice little snowstorm for much of SE Va. and NE NC. Some areas up to 4 inches, maybe higher with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukie definitely puts RDU in 1-2 inches. We got a trend and everybody had already gone to bed! Seriously, one run of one model, but while the sensible weather wasn't changing much on GFS/NAM, there were some subtle changes in the trough -- a bit sharper and tilting a bit sooner. Also intrigued by what the NAM did over the NE with the system before ours. Anyway, still a long shot, but ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 1-2 0r maybe 2-4 would satisfy me the way this winter has gone around the triangle. I would love to see it. Hopefully we will get the big event next week, DT mentioned the possibility on his video tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Canadian farther offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ALERT: 0z Ukie has nice little snowstorm for much of SE Va. and NE NC. Some areas up to 4 inches, maybe higher with good ratios. ukiesnow.gif GFS/UKMET who else wants to join? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How does the euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How does the euro look? Dry....low way off the coast and way late...develops around hr72 1008mb nowhere close to shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The Euro seems to back up the idea of a flizzard across the northern tier of North Carolina Friday night. I think we may need to issue Flizzard Watches for the affected regions if this holds true through 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 After tonight's Euro, I'm 100% done. This storm is toast, and most likely this winter for most of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Will it be cold enough for snow all the way though the column Friday night fror central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Will it be cold enough for snow all the way though the column Friday night fror central NC? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKMet keeps getting better for RDU.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 FFC this morning: Not entirely bad news this morning: STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN THE NE CWA. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE 40'S ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 50'S IN SOUTH CENTRAL GA. WINDS WON'T COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE 20'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS WILL BE LIKELY. A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE STATES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING...IT MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO AREAS. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yes. I raise the question because it looks to me that the preci occurs immediately behind the cold frontal passage and the strong CAA is still hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 First, Happy Valentine's Day ... even for us broken-hearted Snowhounds! Secondly, does the prevalent "stick a fork in this winter" mantra have a foundation other than the ongoing disappointment this year has brought? Long-range outlook appears to be for an active pattern over the next couple of weeks. But then, I'm life-long fan of Clemson basketball ... obviously I've never learned when to toss in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I raise the question because it looks to me that the preci occurs immediately behind the cold frontal passage and the strong CAA is still hours away. According to the NAM when the flizzard moves over even at RDU 850's are between 0 and -4. DP is around 32 and sinks to 25 as they are passing. Critical Thickness is also good enough. All that tells me at least it should be an all snow sounding. Of course we're talking about a 3 hour window of passing showers basically so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 According to the NAM when the flizzard moves over even at RDU 850's are between 0 and -4. DP is around 32 and sinks to 25 as they are passing. Critical Thickness is also good enough. All that tells me at least it should be an all snow sounding. Of course we're talking about a 3 hour window of passing showers basically so who knows? how bout GSO? INT? DAN? or is it way past us? ive got my iphone ready in case i see a flake or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I know and applaud the general disdain that the snow maps are held ... but they do paint an interesting sort of "orphan storm scenario" for Saturday night and Sunday morning across the Carolinas. None look as potent as the Euro, with a nice swath across NE NC and SE Va., and the Ukie offered a similar scenario. The NAM's map dribbles a half-inch or so in a crescent from Myrtle Beach up to about Winston-Salem. And the GFS map coats much of interior SC with a similar dusting. It isn't the be-all, end-all, but someone in this neck of the woods might receive a pleasant surprise come Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Video from DT. He is talking possible ice strom for NC Feb 22 & 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 how bout GSO? INT? DAN? or is it way past us? ive got my iphone ready in case i see a flake or 2 Looks like it would hit those spots as well but I can't emphasize this enough it would just be a passing flurry...but hey maybe the NAM today will get stronger somehow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow! Check this out from the 00z gfs. It actually shows thundersnow at GSO at 1 am Saturday morning with .09 precip previous 6 hrs. Rarely if ever does it show -tssn. Here's the link. If you want a different location, just go into the address bar and replace "gso" with the call letter you want. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kgso.txt TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 1-2 0r maybe 2-4 would satisfy me the way this winter has gone around the triangle. I would love to see it. Hopefully we will get the big event next week, DT mentioned the possibility on his video tonight. why is no one chiming in about this event for the 22 and 23. after watching the clip it makes perfect sense to me for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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