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Blizzard of 2013 Forecast Discussion Part II


forkyfork

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Don, one thing I've always noticed however with the GFS is that it tends to struggle with showing with precip fields/maxes.  Is that an issue with resolution?  Is it simply better to use in looking at things "synoptically"?

DTK might be able to answer that, as I don't have sufficient expertise to comment on that issue. If I recall correctly, in general, models do better in forecasting the 500 mb pattern than they do with forecasting qpf.

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SPC mesoscale has her down to 993 and the minimum pressure is probably actually lower than that. If you follow the greatest pressure drops you can see that the center looks to pass only 50-75 miles SW of ACY

 

WHAT THE HECK IS UP WITH THAT 1012 LOW OVER SW VA?

 

pchg.gif?1360343810254

Cold air damming. That causes high pressure to nose down the east slopes of the Apps and create that baggy isobar appearance.

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Can someone give me an idea what 287 looks like currently from NY state line south? I am heading south on i87 in Kingston NY right now (just stopped off for lunch? Am I screwed by the time I get down there? Heading back to Bucks county.

Thx

I'm in Ramsey right near the I-287/I-17 split. It's snowing moderatly here and everything is covered.

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DTK might be able to answer that, as I don't have sufficient expertise to comment on that issue. If I recall correctly, in general, models do better in forecasting the 500 mb pattern than they do with forecasting qpf.

 

QPF is notoriously difficult to predict (there are so many scales of phenomena involved, dealing with phase change, highly nonlinear nature)....especially with models run at their current resolutions.  The GFS effectively has 27 km (ish) horizontal resolution, so a lot of what goes into QPF is parameterized (adding to the difficulty). 

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Great! Thanks Yanks

 

Same in Oakland - moderate snow, sticking on all surfaces (though I haven't seen the main roads), temps below freezing. Watch out on I-287 between Oakland and Wanaque; there's a pretty good incline over the Ramapo Mountains, followed by a long bridge over a river valley. That stretch tends to be very slick. 

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QPF is notoriously difficult to predict (there are so many scales of phenomena involved, dealing with phase change, highly nonlinear nature)....especially with models run at their current resolutions.  The GFS effectively has 27 km (ish) horizontal resolution, so a lot of what goes into QPF is parameterized (adding to the difficulty). 

What's your thinking based off the radar, water vapor lopp and current trends? Does the idea of a track further NW have any merrit?

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HRRR also picks up the warm tongue. All hi-res models have this now. HRRR has it further east. Depending on where the low and mid level lows combine is where this warm tongue will set up. The NAM drops heavy precip in the warm tongue, completely over running the dynamical cooling effects. Correct if I'm wrong... HRRR:

 

tempt3925f10.png

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is anyone worried in nj based off looking at the radar, such at TWC's radar it shows precip over by 5pm in all of NJ does this make any sense?

No, the precip will not be ending at 5PM. I was TWC on and they said specifically that they expect precip to change to snow around 5PM for NYC and NJ. I think it will be earlier then that though

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