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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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18z Hi-Res NAM just crushes you at home in Litchfield County.  Has that deformation band that just rots there and lifts up into ME. 

 

What's interesting on these models is that the deform band is forming but it isn't curling eastward, but transitioning northeast into NH/ME.  Its interesting because east of that band, the models are sort of ending the heaviest snows until you get back towards the immediate coast. 

 

But man, get into this puppy and its all over.  This band is going to be ripping. 

 

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yeah man, I'm pulling for the band obviously but even without getting smacked by a band you're still looking at 15"+.  It's a win win no matter where you are.  Does the BTV WRF only update 4X a day?

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Would not be a surprise to see the qpf tempered back slightly on the 0z runs.  The bar has been set very high.

 

30" seems reasonable for a few locales but totals much over that I'll believe when I actually see reports of it otg.

 

I would agree, but I'm hesitant to do so as I think we've all expected the amounts to be coming down for a while and they sit sickingly high.  We'll see soon enough.  Meanwhile, I just subscribed to weathertap so I can watch the radar in full glory.  Pathetic.

 

22.8/4.  I'm ready.

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powder i think its very possible lolli's will reach 40 if that deform band sets up over E slope/PERU / High elevations near colebrook, etc.

 

If we set up a thread for guess the jackpot amount in this storm (not the town) i would say 44. AGAIN this can't be forecast, because who knows what town, or even what part of what town will get under the MDB pivot action. But when they do, they will pound snow at like 3-4 inches an hour for hours

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Would not be a surprise to see the qpf tempered back slightly on the 0z runs.  The bar has been set very high.

 

30" seems reasonable for a few locales but totals much over that I'll believe when I actually see reports of it otg.

 

Said reports will be forthcoming from Tolland,Ct and West Chesterfield,Ma.

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DISCLAIMER:  We have no way of knowing whether the RAP will be of any use with this system.  This is a discussion between model runs pre SREF and NAM...out of boredom.

 

The 23z RAP and all the others have been pretty consistent.  The low crosses just over or SE of Hatteras and moves NE.  The latest RAP would be east of the NAM(s) I think for certain and probably even the GFS run at 18z in terms of DE/VA.  Meaningless probably at that range but oh well.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=rap&cycle=23&area=namer&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick

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Great job by the pros and knowledgeable hobbyists in this subforum sniffing out this threat....hope all of you get the crushing you are expecting enjoy....I'll shut up now, looking forward to more great analysis as this unfolds, thanks also to the pro mets from this region who have patiently answered questions from those outside the region.  And a tip of the hat to Tippy, nice analysis.

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Looks like that Low is Starting to get Energy off the Gulf Stream...

 

 

 

 

Folks, Greetings, i'm in ILM, NC, hearing thunder, in the distance, (Towards the beach(s)),,,I'm about 5 miles from the beach, We are getting, shall I say quite a bit O' rain here,Wells lots, Bands almost with Gust(s) embedded,,, headed your way... Looks like your gonna get one Heck of a Nor.Easter, SNOW-CANE!

 

post-2767-0-27335100-1360285887_thumb.gi

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Wouldn't it be awesome if every single one of us 24 plus? Euro says that's possible

I was explaining how much I wanted as much snow as possible....50 or more if it were doable. After we catch up on sleep when the storm ends we'll need another snow fix. Lets enjoy this one.....a truly epic event for the ages. Think about it, 2-3 inch qpf rainstorms are noteworthy when people always say...imagine if this was snow? Now it will be!

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I was explaining how much I wanted as much snow as possible....50 or more if it were doable. After we catch up on sleep when the storm ends we'll need another snow fix. Lets enjoy this one.....a truly epic event for the ages. Think about it, 2-3 inch qpf rainstorms are noteworthy when people always say...imagine if this was snow? Now it will be!

 

How much QPF was in the April Fools 1997 storm?  I gotta imagine that was more QPF as snow than what this storm looks to be.

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