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PUNTING NEMO


Ji

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NYC also gets crushed. This could be one of those surprise storms where we are forecasted to see nothing more than some back end flakes and we end up with a foot.

 

#staypositive

 

Alright maybe that is too extreme but I wouldn't be surprised if between now and friday we get a run that throws us a bone.

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I know most here know this but just to reinforce the problem at hand for those who are hoping because the 1036hp looks so good,  this says a lot:

 

 

Look at the wind barbs in our area. S-SE surface flow is a dagger. Same flow @ 850 too. 

 

The low near the lakes is a warm air vacuum. That beautiful 1036 hp is rendered useless until the 850 circulation shuts off to our n-w. If the antecedent airmass was much colder then we could talk about meaningful front end precip but there is just too much stacked against us here. 

 

There is a very very slim chance the circ around the low to the nw shuts off fast enough to let the low to our south pull enough cold air down to give us something at the end but I wouldn't bet a dollar at 5-1 odds on it. 

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The low levels are just toasty by 12z Friday on the NAM.  Nearly 5°C at 950mb.

 

And look at the winds at all levels. The southeasterly winds at around 950mb are a killer for those hoping for damming.  The strong 850 low to our north also is a big problem. 

 

Date: 45 hour Eta valid 9Z FRI  8 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1013    57   1.3   0.8  96  0.5   1.1  85   7 273.4 274.1 273.6 284.2  4.00  1 1000   164   2.4                      105  14 275.6                          2  950   582   4.1   2.5  89  1.6   3.4 144  31 281.4 282.2 279.0 294.7  4.81  3  900  1020   1.4  -1.1  84  2.4   0.3 156  24 282.9 283.6 278.6 294.0  3.93  4  850  1477  -1.6  -2.1  96  0.6  -1.8 165  22 284.5 285.2 279.3 295.4  3.85  5  800  1961  -1.1  -1.1 100  0.0  -1.2 209  18 289.9 290.7 282.4 302.6  4.39  6  750  2473  -4.5  -4.8  98  0.3  -4.7 221  15 291.7 292.3 282.2 302.1  3.56  7  700  3013  -7.4  -8.6  91  1.2  -7.9 229  15 294.3 294.8 282.5 302.8  2.84  8  650  3591  -7.6  -8.2  96  0.5  -7.8 232  42 300.3 300.9 285.3 310.0  3.18  9  600  4210 -11.3 -12.8  88  1.5 -11.8 232  38 303.1 303.5 285.5 310.5  2.38 10  550  4872 -14.9 -21.3  58  6.5 -16.5 240  37 306.5 306.7 285.5 310.6  1.27 11  500  5588 -18.8 -30.8  34 12.0 -21.0 246  37 310.1 310.2 286.1 312.1  0.59 12  450  6363 -24.8 -38.2  28 13.4 -26.5 248  43 312.1 312.2 286.5 313.2  0.31 13  400  7207 -32.0 -38.4  53  6.4 -32.6 249  50 313.4 313.5 287.0 314.7  0.35 14  350  8136 -38.3 -41.7  70  3.4 -38.6 236  65 317.1 317.2 288.1 318.1  0.28 15  300  9176 -47.0 -50.5  68  3.5 -47.2 227  77 319.1 319.1 288.6 319.5  0.12 16  250 10357 -56.1                      228  88 322.6                         17  200 11771 -53.7                      249  81 347.8                         18  150 13623 -54.7                      257  92 375.8                         19  100 16165 -62.2                      262  73 407.5     
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Yay rain

 

The NAM almost has that boxing day look except much warmer so maybe we dry slot some or maybe not since it's the nam and a little outside its wheelhouse.  Still all the models have that strong northern stream to screw things up in terms of low level temps.  For this storm all the models have the warmest layer at around 950mb.  For those still hoping for snow, that's the level to watch. if the winds at that level end up being northeasterly instead of southeasterly,  there would be hope. My own feeling is the probably of that is around 5% or less but for those who really like hoping that will be enough. 

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This reminds me of the early February storm I chased in 2005.  It was all set to dump 18-24 on SNE and it kept trending warmer and further north inside 48 hours.  I ended up having to go to North Conway, NH/Fryeburg, ME and even there got "only" about 14" though the mountains just to the west did 20"+, and I drove through there.   I'd hate to be in RI, BOS right now

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Temps aside, the total precip maps for the 12Z NAM are pretty hilarious from our perspective, as well.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif#

 

 

Thats crazy. 4-5 inches. Somebody is getting 3 feet up there.

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