CAPE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I like to look at the ens members, not to look for one that suits me, but to see what the majority look like. From the looks of the gfs mems it would seem a basic whiff is a possibility. I can't see the euro members but from your post earlier it didn't sound anywhere close to the euro op. I get what you're saying about moving to the middle. Makes sense. But the SREFS have to have some usefulness, and the 15z members had about a third that seem to develop this thing in a different fashion, taking the precip on a more inside track through our area and the out to the ne. I can't see the 21z members yet, but the mean would suggest that some members are still in that camp. Point being with all the different scenarios, it would seem the whole situation is far from certain. I'd just like to see some front end frozen. Lol why? Haven't you seen enough unsatisfying slop storms and weak clippers...at this point I want at least a MECS or eff it, I will start looking forward to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I like to look at the ens members, not to look for one that suits me, but to see what the majority look like. From the looks of the gfs mems it would seem a basic whiff is a possibility. I can't see the euro members but from your post earlier it didn't sound anywhere close to the euro op. I get what you're saying about moving to the middle. Makes sense. But the SREFS have to have some usefulness, and the 15z members had about a third that seem to develop this thing in a different fashion, taking the precip on a more inside track through our area and the out to the ne. I can't see the 21z members yet, but the mean would suggest that some members are still in that camp. Point being with all the different scenarios, it would seem the whole situation is far from certain. I'd just like to see some front end frozen. 21Z SREFs move the system right along and do not deepen it anything like the Euro the mean comes close to giving us snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 0Z NAM is really draining the cold air on the east side of the mts thru 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 0Z NAM is really draining the cold air on the east side of the mts thru 36 hrs Above freezing by 42, man I just don't see it on this one. Not really worth watching, it would take a lot to even get an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Above freezing by 42, man I just don't see it on this one. Not really worth watching, it would take a lot to even get an inch of snow. nothing else to do this evening anyway, I'm practicing for next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nothing else to do this evening anyway, I'm practicing for next winter Like it's not even a threat IMO, go do something else man lol. I like the d8 threat, but thats d8 so I'm waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Above freezing by 42, man I just don't see it on this one. Not really worth watching, it would take a lot to even get an inch of snow. 850's are -4ish at 45 hrs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 850's are -4ish at 45 hrs fwiw Sfc is colder, I mean N/s vort digs less from the looks of it, haven't looked at h5, but s/s wave is more north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sfc is colder, I mean N/s vort digs less from the looks of it, haven't looked at h5, but s/s wave is more north as well. comparing 48 hrs to 12z, at 60 hrs, n stream is stronger and delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks like NAM should start us off at snow, BWI at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looks like NAM should start us off at snow, BWI at least DCA is close... 850s are prob -1/-2 and temp around 33/34... so perhaps an hour of snow to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 57 hours that 850 line is holding on for dear life near DC metro, definitely different than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DCA is close... 850s are prob -1/-2 and temp around 33/34... so perhaps an hour of snow to start? heh, the runs are getting colder not warmer soooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sfc is colder, I mean N/s vort digs less from the looks of it, haven't looked at h5, but s/s wave is more north as well. That midwest low and position of the High just kills the chances at this latitude...tracking these threats on the models in an unfavorable pattern really underscores the importance of a 50/50 or decent h.l. blocking. Yeah we will track and watch the evolution, but unless you are kidding yourself or have very low expectations(ie a bit of front end frozen will do it for you) the outcome is not going to be especially good for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is a nice improvement I suppose, and yes we need the slower NS to allow a better cleaner earlier phase which then switches off to the coastal low quicker and allows the high to funnel in more cold. Still, looks like nothing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 heh, the runs are getting colder not warmer soooooo... They always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh what at 60? CAD for the Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They always do. this year, yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hmm, I'll take a cold trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Uh what at 60? CAD for the Bay? we just need the northern stream to collapse into the southern one http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 we just need the northern stream to collapse into the southern one http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_850_temp_ht.gif like this, just a hair quicker http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM has changes, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 like this, just a hair quicker http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_066_850_temp_ht.gif Wow, the position of the 850mb low is classic on this run for a nice storm, compared to models having it over BUF before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is a nice improvement I suppose, and yes we need the slower NS to allow a better cleaner earlier phase which then switches off to the coastal low quicker and allows the high to funnel in more cold. Still, looks like nothing really. Not really sure how you're so sure of what this will be when it is clearly a fluid situation at this time. Temps are close, get that ns delayed, further west which is what the NAM appears to be doing, get the precip coming in from a more sw direction, give the cad a little better chance, and you have something different altogether. I wouldn't dare say what this will be on Friday morning at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hmm, I'll take a cold trend. Dude you punted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not really sure how you're so sure of what this will be when it is clearly a fluid situation at this time. Temps are close, get that ns delayed, further west which is what the NAM appears to be doing, get the precip coming in from a more sw direction, give the cad a little better chance, and you have something different altogether. I wouldn't dare say what this will be on Friday morning at this point. I'm just stating its unlikely. Maybe a little front end frozen, but there are a lot of players you need to trend in our favor for a little event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM looks pretty Euroish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Dude you punted Still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 my cad sucks commentary yesterday was an attempt to mock the snow gods, fwiw err something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 this year, yep What I was referring to was precip on a sw-ne traj with a high in the Quebec region. Seems like the cold is always under modeled. I don't think it's helping that the NAM has the precip a bit too far east. I'd rather see it a bit more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.