Mid to late February Pattern Discussion...stormy or end of winter?

[CT Rain]

wow. LL's wildflowers and oysters FTL on the GFS.

 

Damn it does get cold in weenie land D10-D16. That would just be a nuts pattern for early March.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL at the GFS in the long range. That would probably break records in the plains for cold at that time of the year.

[Baroclinic Zone]

wow. LL's wildflowers and oysters FTL on the GFS.

lmao.  -20c 850s tickling VT in the long range

[H2Otown_WX]

Yeah getting that storm around D10 is key. Otherwise it's like a climo regime with temps through D10 and slow and steady melting. If we can pull off a sweet Miller B at the end that would be great.

Ryan any thoughts on what the GFS is trying to pull late Thursday? It looks like the BL is torched at any rate.

[icebreaker5221]

(morch)^-1

[Tropopause_Fold]

any word on the euro ens for the extended period? 

[Damage In Tolland]

any word on the euro ens for the extended period?

Pickles?

[ORH_wxman]

any word on the euro ens for the extended period? 

 

 

They look awesome...good signal near Mar 7th...and then again around Mar 11th. They are really cold too. Its remarkable to me how cold they are for a long range prog. Big chunk of the northern plains/lakes have -12 to -14C 850 temps.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Thanks will

[weathafella]

3/3-15 are going to be incredibly fun.

[Ginx snewx]

They look awesome...good signal near Mar 7th...and then again around Mar 11th. They are really cold too. Its remarkable to me how cold they are for a long range prog. Big chunk of the northern plains/lakes have -12 to -14C 850 temps.

Spring Fling!

[Tropopause_Fold]

Spring Fling!

Oysters, bikinis, fire pit. BSE3

[Mr Torchey]

Spring Fling!

Hows everything going GInx. hope all is well with the family and pet.

[SR Airglow]

Looks beautiful in the long range on all the models, but it's going to have to verify beautiful to get down here in on the action. Taking the 7th as an example, climo here is 44/27, so we would have to be a solid -10 on the high to see a snowstorm. Impossible?, no, but not easy, and everything has to fall into the right place. I think we see another accumulating snowfall down here, probably not another blizzard, but according to climo we do get a few inches on average here in march, and I think we do see that.

-skisheep

[Ginx snewx]

Hows everything going GInx. hope all is well with the family and pet.

not good on the dog, family healing at home. Thanks

[weathafella]

Looks beautiful in the long range on all the models, but it's going to have to verify beautiful to get down here in on the action. Taking the 7th as an example, climo here is 44/27, so we would have to be a solid -10 on the high to see a snowstorm. Impossible?, no, but not easy, and everything has to fall into the right place. I think we see another accumulating snowfall down here, probably not another blizzard, but according to climo we do get a few inches on average here in march, and I think we do see that.

-skisheep

Or...it could hit 45 at 2pm, and start snowing at 30 at midnight.

[SR Airglow]

Or...it could hit 45 at 2pm, and start snowing at 30 at midnight.

Quite possibly, and hopefully true! A daytime snow is always more fun, but the odds of that seem to be low for down here, but like I said, I don't think we're done down here quite yet, think another advisory+ event is still in the cards.

-skisheep

[weathafella]

Quite possibly, and hopefully true! A daytime snow is always more fun, but the odds of that seem to be low for down here, but like I said, I don't think we're done down here quite yet, think another advisory+ event is still in the cards.

-skisheep

3/3/60. I left for school in nj with temps in the 20s. Md day heavy snow and wind with temps in the low20s. South of your location.

[nzucker]

Yeah as we head into March, it's tough to get good surface cold unless its dynamically forced. There's a reason the CP's snow season ends around 3/1-3/10.

Huh? We've had plenty of good snowfalls after the first week of March in Westchester. 1958 had two 10"+ snowfalls in the second half of the month; 2004 had two major snowfalls right near the equinox. 2003 had a 4-8" for NYC metro on April 7th. To me, reasonable snow chances extend to around March 24th...after that, it becomes much more difficult yet not impossible.

[nzucker]

Looks beautiful in the long range on all the models, but it's going to have to verify beautiful to get down here in on the action. Taking the 7th as an example, climo here is 44/27, so we would have to be a solid -10 on the high to see a snowstorm. Impossible?, no, but not easy, and everything has to fall into the right place. I think we see another accumulating snowfall down here, probably not another blizzard, but according to climo we do get a few inches on average here in march, and I think we do see that.

-skisheep

Using average temperatures to compute the potential for snowfall in March is a fallacy because those reflect clear days with high sun angle. When you have potential for snow, you naturally have troughing to form low pressure so you're dealing with colder than normal temperatures as well as limited sun exposure.

 

Of course, once the average highs get well into the 50s later in the month, it does require a bigger trough for significant snowfalls.

 

People are forgetting the coastal plain averages significant snow in March just because we haven't had a decent March since 2005. Even NYC usually gets like 4" in March.

[HoarfrostHubb]

March can produce some biggies

[Allsnow]

Oysters, bikinis, fire pit. BSE3

Flowers are going to look great this march

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies are very -NAO bullish and rather cold.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Weeklies are very -NAO bullish and rather cold.

Morch dead and buried?

[CoastalWx]

Morch dead and buried?

RIP.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Nice. Hopefully theres one last big region wide snowstorm in the cards.

[CoastalWx]

Long range gfs op still chilly towards the end. I think thats agreeing with the ensembles of the improving Pacific allowing for cold to dive south.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm hoping for a slightly colder rain in early march.

[SouthCoastMA]

Let's get that -NAO cranking into March and April. Looking forward to that nice refreshing breeze off the water with drizzle.

[CoastalWx]

The -NAO weakens and the PAC takes over allowing for more cold air into the CONUS. Snowpack is good so that allows a nice highway for colder air to mvoe south. Of course we all know it doesn't have to translate to snow, but as is...that's the best way for us in SNE to get snow. The -NAO will be around too.