Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 More interesting than I thought it'd be but like Phil said hard to ignore the pattern we are in. At 3-4 days it could easily break much better, or go the way of many other threats. This one does look different in that we finally have strong, well organized features aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I do like the look of this though for at least part of the area. Explosive vortmax on the GFS and euro has a strong one too...just more linear and kicks out too far east. Should be interesting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 How do temps look for my area? Looked at 850's and they look good for me, what else can you look at to see if there are problems in other levels? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks good for Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I do like the look of this though for at least part of the area. Explosive vortmax on the GFS and euro has a strong one too...just more linear and kicks out too far east. Should be interesting today. Yup--and not said for eric to post the qpf-mike pic, inside of 495 up into ME looks like a great spot. Hopefully, we can get some early development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 How do temps look for my area? Looked at 850's and they look good for me, what else can you look at to see if there are problems in other levels? -skisheep It's going to be a snow or no situation. Critical levels are cold enough for snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 i like your optimism jerry. i do think that sooner or later one of these is going to get the job done but then again i can't say i'd be surprised if this whiffed east just given the pattern / flow. i'm not a fan of the way the GFS is doing this - i'd like to see the euro's evolution, just stronger. i feel like the GFS would eventually just end up a dendrite special (not that he shouldn't get snow lol) good morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lets see if we can get something that slows the whole thing down a bit. Is this a Manitoba Mauler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I do like the look of this though for at least part of the area. Explosive vortmax on the GFS and euro has a strong one too...just more linear and kicks out too far east. Should be interesting today. yeah should get at least some of the area with some snows. i'd like to see the GFS get it's act together earlier with the secondary or be further south with the primary or not as strong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 How were the euro ensembles relative to the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It's going to be a snow or no situation. Critical levels are cold enough for snow..... Good to know, lets hope for the former! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm on board for the 3rd, Need to see the euro come around and develop this system sooner and further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro is quite close, but no cigar. It actually develops a pretty good inverted trough for GON/E LI, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Good to know, lets hope for the former! -skisheep We could easily get screwed (seasonal trend) but this is the best looking shot we've had for something decent since the end of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I think we still need that southern s/w to slow down or dig more S to allow the potent N s/w to capture it. I like the look of this setup still for Eastern areas the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 This is our best shot at something good snow wise in quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We need a 6th and 10th thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 We need this storm to deepen southeast of LI rather than southeast of Nantucket, MA, that way we get a more prolonged shot at the comma head development. Also we need the vort max to be stronger then modeled so that the southern and northern vorts phase. This is a Manitoba Mauler disturbance, so the trough is amped, we just need a stronger disturbance to allow phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We need this storm to deepen southeast of LI rather than southeast of Nantucket, MA, that way we get a more prolonged shot at the comma head development. Also we need the vort max to be stronger then modeled so that the southern and northern vorts phase. This is a Manitoba Mauler disturbance, so the trough is amped, we just need a stronger disturbance to allow phasing. One of the issues at around this time range has been a tendency of the models to try to dig the s/ws more SSE versus the eventual SE or ESE. The GGEM and RGEM really haven't bitten on any of those modeled threats and the GGEM is still really flat/boring as Will pointed out last night. I agree with what you're saying I'm just not at that point yet. One of these is going to work in our favor and this could well be it, just would like to see another run with full support. If I had to forecast it'd just be flurries/snow showers out here until after this 12z. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 a lot of the 6z gfs ens members hit maine pretty hard. low makes a much sharper left hand turn and bombs over the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 a lot of the 6z gfs ens members hit maine pretty hard. low makes a much sharper left hand turn and bombs over the GOM. 90h 96h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Good morning you princes of Maine, you kings of New England. Nice to wake up to see the GFS throwing us a bone. If it remains consistent or continues the trend, and the euro picks it up this afternoon, I could become excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is even slower more meh with the first impulse in Montana this run. But that's actually what we want for NE providing everything else is still in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'll take what some of the ARW models are smoking. 9z SREFs mean SLP secondary develops just S of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'll take what some of the ARW models are smoking. 9z SREFs mean SLP secondary develops just S of LI. Wow yeah there are some super weenie members in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Super weenie runs is what we like to hear, rain for Cape Cod, MA most likely then. Onto the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 SREFs are now what the DGEX once was at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I think this NAM run is going to look mostly the same based on what I see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Fook the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 a lot of the 6z gfs ens members hit maine pretty hard. low makes a much sharper left hand turn and bombs over the GOM. What is causing that? gfs have more blocking in the na? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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