SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Super weenie runs is what we like to hear, rain for Cape Cod, MA most likely then. Onto the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Fook the SREFs. Yeah..after the past few weeks, not even worth considering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 SREFs are now what the DGEX once was at this range. As is the NAM. Not much to do right now except wait for the Globals to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Actually maybe this run will be a little better, shortwave a little slower down in Arkansas but maybe not enough to matter. We'll see. Probably doesn't mean Jack anyway since it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 This is a really strong s/w diving out of Canada. I think the lead s/w as well as lack of good ridging out W is preventing this from being a much bigger system for a lot of us, as modeled currently. Not much else to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeah..after the past few weeks, not even worth considering. Thou shalt not spurn whatever models give thee thine desired storm. Thou shalt exclude the JMA from that last bit. Thou shalt always mock the JMA. So it is written, so it shall be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Actually maybe this run will be a little better, shortwave a little slower down in Arkansas but maybe not enough to matter. We'll see. Probably doesn't mean Jack anyway since it's the NAM NAM is coming to a more intense solution. It supported the "global" solutions earlier and has gradually slowed down the lead s/w. It's ramping up nice by 60 hours. NAM probably brewing a biggie this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Shortwave over AR looks stronger in the northern jet stream. Could mean more southern moisture connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 It looks like the NAM wants a double phasing jet structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Southern shortwave dissipates. Arctic shortwave comes through the Great Lakes, strong moisture fetch off the Atlantic off the Mid Atlantic coastline, hints of a large circulation storm. Could be a big one. All on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It looks like the NAM wants a double phasing jet structure. talk dirty to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hour 63 shows a large Atlantic inflow of moisture over the region, indicative of an intense developing storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Its going to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Man, if that darn s/w wasn't there over Maine at 66h, this would be awesome...still as is, there's enough juice in that shortwave to still make things quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well she looks pretty good on this run IMO. Nice strong shortwave. If that stuff over New Brunswick was gone it would be a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lol the play by play on the Nam, The Srefs suck ballz all year and the Nam is useless out side of 24 hrs, Take whatever it has with a grain of salt, GFS looks decent, Euro slowly coming around, Its gon snow....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Its going to phase. Well, that's a given imo. It's a matter of where and what impacts to the area it will have. Man, if that darn s/w wasn't there over Maine at 66h, this would be awesome...still as is, there's enough juice in that shortwave to still make things quite interesting. It's right there Will. Close to a sizeable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Like Capeweather guy said there is a lot of flow coming in off the Atlantic..that is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Im surprised box is only going with a 40% chance of snow here Man, if that darn s/w wasn't there over Maine at 66h, this would be awesome...still as is, there's enough juice in that shortwave to still make things quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lol the play by play on the Nam, The Srefs suck ballz all year and the Nam is useless out side of 24 hrs, Take whatever it has with a grain of salt, GFS looks decent, Euro slowly coming around, Its gon snow....... I'm pretty much sold after this run of the NAM. Only because I think all the models are trending the same way at this point and barring any changes for the worst in the others at 12z time to send up the flag with details TBD. You just don't see that much energy diving in very often, that's pretty epic. EDIT: No idea who it ultimately effects and what weather it brings, just saying I think we see a late bloomer that has a lot of potential to deepen and slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 LOL it winds up tight at 84 hr...too bad this wasn't 24 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Just for laughs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like an advisory event on the NAM...its really close to being something a lot bigger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm pretty much sold after this run of the NAM. Only because I think all the models are trending the same way at this point and barring any changes for the worst in the others at 12z time to send up the flag with details TBD. All the posts about the Nam being so bad, hmm. Seems pretty good last couple of storms, it blew the GFS away with QPF this last storm, GFS finally capitulated, unless you got 2-3 of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm pretty much sold after this run of the NAM. Only because I think all the models are trending the same way at this point and barring any changes for the worst in the others at 12z time to send up the flag with details TBD. You just don't see that much energy diving in very often, that's pretty epic. I am sold on the other models, Just getting on the Nam as its still a good 75 hrs+ out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 man, I'm hoping we get more than an 1" on this one.. I'm hoping for a big week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the nam would maybe be better after the run (post 84)...but it's still pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 All the posts about the Nam being so bad, hmm. Seems pretty good last couple of storms, it blew the GFS away with QPF this last storm, GFS finally capitulated, unless you got 2-3 of rain? Yeah, it was pretty good with the last storm and fine with this one. This should be where it excels too. We will see, models are having problems with the strength of features diving down out of Canada. GGEM has normally been pretty good, so let's see what it shows. I don't think there's any doubt a big ocean low is going to form now. Finally we get one to amplify... BTW, CF nightmare on this run on screaming east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 All the posts about the Nam being so bad, hmm. Seems pretty good last couple of storms, it blew the GFS away with QPF this last storm, GFS finally capitulated, unless you got 2-3 of rain? The Nam did nail my qpf the other day though, 0.17", If it was the only model that shows this storm would you ride it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM was very interesting, still needs to resolve a few issues, but overall looking like a nice three run trend on the model for something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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