weatherMA Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 This could well turn into a warning event as we enjoy the Super Bowl "Enjoy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah, because we'd likely have no system on 2/3 or a very weak one if the 2/1 "bombs", that one would be long out of the way by 2/5 or 2/6 which could cause limited confluence and hence a more north track for that system. I think the 2/3 system has more potential for SNE anyway than the 2/1 clipper does so everyone should probably be pulling for the 2/1 clipper to fall flat on its face, remember just last week a clipper that bombed off Delaware ruined the phasing of the next system and as a result we only had the light snowfall across E PA/NJ/NYC instead of the likelihood the northern/southern waves may have phased up if not for the predecessor flattening out the flow a bit. but could feb 1 get out to Atlantic Canada and be a 50-50 for 2/3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro and GFS are night and day for Sunday. Euro develops a low right off the coast and GFS is way north. We then have a chance or two again next week as we spoke about yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Such big differences with the GFS and euro next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS spits out more qpf Sunday,,but Euro is sharper and farther south and would give us more snow than GFS track..Either way..we are looking at a snowy Saturday night and Superbowl Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We 'll take 1-4 to start a new pack FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Good morning horrible weather in Fla. mid 70's no humidity a little boring all you need is a tape recording all winter except for an occasion life disrupting citrus freeze LOL see ya. peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs looks abysmal for this threat way north at 0 and 6z, and it lost midweek too. yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 if the GFS wasn't running neck-and-neck with the euro of late, i'd be more interested in this system. we'll see what guidance does over the next few days. prudent just to keep the chance for snow in the forecast, with best odds from ORH to BOS to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs are awful this year...having a bunch of hires models running wild isn't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs are awful this year...having a bunch of hires models running wild isn't helping. Yeah...who's idea was that and why wasn't it tested? Yikes. What a waste of what was once a favored tool. I'm with Phil on this one. Euro has done the tuck rule on these storms several times. Has seemingly wanted to turn each system on the hook north only to dump it pretty quickly. I'll take the GFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah...who's idea was that and why wasn't it tested? Yikes. What a waste of what was once a favored tool. I'm with Phil on this one. Euro has done the tuck rule on these storms several times. Has seemingly wanted to turn each system on the hook north only to dump it pretty quickly. I'll take the GFS for now. How do you know it wasn't tested? I'm pretty sure they ran it parallel to the old SREF suite and it performed better otherwise they would never use it. But its certainly not doing well this winter for whatever reason. We can't assume the old SREFs would have done better either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs are awful this year...having a bunch of hires models running wild isn't helping. yeah that's the thing - they are basically now comprised of all the same type of model. i know they each have different schematics but i honestly think losing the rsm and eta members is hurting them. they aren't really an "ensemble" anymore in the sense of providing balance. now they are an ensemble of high-res stuff. might be good in the summer with convection or if we were having a winter with a lot of miller A type storms riding the western wall of the gulf stream....but not for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah they'll never send a product out not tested, but for whatever reason...something seems wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 How do you know it wasn't tested? I'm pretty sure they ran it parallel to the old SREF suite and it performed better otherwise they would never use it. But its certainly not doing well this winter for whatever reason. We can't assume the old SREFs would have done better either. they must have run it parallel. they always do for quite some time. i'll be curious to see if they do a bit better with the upcoming pattern of storms ejecting out of the plains and ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah they'll never send a product out not tested, but for whatever reason...something seems wrong. Tinker tinker to make a product better well that and job justification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS still is meh on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 they must have run it parallel. they always do for quite some time. i'll be curious to see if they do a bit better with the upcoming pattern of storms ejecting out of the plains and ohio valley. I'd think that someone on this forum would have come across it....I'm sure at some point it was, but I wonder what type of testing was actually done. Changes went into effect about 8/21/12 Maybe one of the red taggers could email the names at the bottom and ask? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin12-30sref_aaa.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Some better ridging out west on the 12z GFS would do wonders for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Some better ridging out west on the 12z GFS would do wonders for this system. Yeah it nearly gets the whole vortmax underneath us. That would produce some half decent snows if it can do that...as it is, probably another event that give many like an inch or so. Probably high ratio stuff again given the airmass in place and ML temps where the lift would be. We'll see where we are in another 2 days. Funny how the 2/6 system which at one time was forecasted to track up into the St. Lawrence valley has become a clipper that could suffer the meat grinder effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah it nearly gets the whole vortmax underneath us. That would produce some half decent snows if it can do that...as it is, probably another event that give many like an inch or so. Probably high ratio stuff again given the airmass in place and ML temps where the lift would be. We'll see where we are in another 2 days. Funny how the 2/6 system which at one time was forecasted to track up into the St. Lawrence valley has become a clipper that could suffer the meat grinder effect. Same old same old. Although if that entire system gets shoved out under us at least we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah it nearly gets the whole vortmax underneath us. That would produce some half decent snows if it can do that...as it is, probably another event that give many like an inch or so. Probably high ratio stuff again given the airmass in place and ML temps where the lift would be. We'll see where we are in another 2 days. Funny how the 2/6 system which at one time was forecasted to track up into the St. Lawrence valley has become a clipper that could suffer the meat grinder effect. I have my issues with that 2/6 "system" Back to this threat, that ULL that moves into the PAC NW really puts a beat down on the good ridging we have. Hopefully it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z Ukie looks similar to 12z GFS at 96h. Has a low developing off VA/NC coast. Maybe a hair N. By 120h it has a 985mb low just off the NS coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z GGEM gives light snows for the area. Looks like more for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z euro is awfully close to a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro gives close to if not advisory snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 12z euro is awfully close to a good hit. What's it do with the ULL in the PAC NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro gives close to if not advisory snows No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 How much different can the euro and gfs be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro gives close to if not advisory snows the 12z euro? no it doesn't. i don't even know if it has anything more than a "T" of precip over most of SNE. it's maybe 1-3 or 2-4 (if you're really optimistic) out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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