Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Ens mean QPF is better for ENE. 0.10" line runs from about BGR-DAW-ORH. sorry to bother you Brian - does it get the quarter inch contour into New England anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 sorry to bother you Brian - does it get the quarter inch contour into New England anywhere?No bother at all. It gets near the elbow, but not quite on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No bother at all. It gets near the elbow, but not quite on shore. great thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Did he get a lot of socks for the holidays too? Tauntons take: FRI...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROF PASSAGE ON FRI. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT SHARPNESS OF THE TROF SUGGESTS MENTION OF SCT FLURRIES. SAT...LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SUN...SHORT WAVE TROF WITH BAGGINESS IN SFC PRES FIELD DEPICTED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A TAD MORE QPF...THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT SHARPER SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A NEGATIVE TILT HINT. PUT POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF AREA FOR SUN. MON-TUE...MON LOOKS DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE UPPER TROF AND SFC CLIPPER LOW PASSES THRU WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. GFS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS LOW CENTER COMPARED WITH THE ONE ON SUN BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE. There may have been some disappointments under his tree as well.... Have you or the mets ever seen such a difficult season to get our hands around a pattern? Even though I have little scientific knowledge, as a hobbyist I could generally use some gut instinct or pattern recognition skills to at least have a feel for what was happening and what was likely to pan out - but this year no way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No bother at all. It gets near the elbow, but not quite on shore. jeez stil in the low to mid 30s here....lol, maybe some pack survives. I have heard folks including HPC talk about N atl ridging se of greenland. Could that help us out here with one of these clippers? Seems like good set ups and tracks if they can just slow down a bit. I guess I'm asking if there is any mechanism here that could allow some slowing and amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 18z GFS looks pretty decent with the shortwave digging for 2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Lot of s/w rotating thru the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Lot of s/w rotating thru the northern stream I have very little hope for the first two, I think in the end like KTAN the progressive nature of things will rear its ugly head as system 2 approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Lot of s/w rotating thru the northern stream I have very little hope for the first two, I think in the end like KTAN the progressive nature of things will rear its ugly head as system 2 approaches. It won't be the flow as much as the strength and digging of the energy. I still think 2/3 holds some promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z GEFS don't look as qpf friendly as the 6z gefs for sunday. but those bounce around like the ladies at the cabaret. hoping euro ens stay the course with .10 for the area....just cover the grass, make it appear like a real winter. I hope this doesn't become a cne, then downeast deal. as some members have a low in vicinity of lake ontario sorta transfering to a low just ENE of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 woah on the GFS 40 u s/w diving down and NOT getting blunted east. Best looking run in ages for a system at this timeframe. By 87/90 it's really wrapping up, going to be a big storm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 woah on the GFS That vorticity coming down from Canada at 78 hours is beastly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 woah on the GFS 40 u s/w diving down and NOT getting blunted east. Best looking run in ages for a system at this timeframe. Yeah pretty nice. Digs much harder and tries to phase with the other s/w well ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The main s/w manages to catch the little vortmax out in front of it. We get very nice downstream ridging. This allows the mid-levels to back the flow a bit and throw some decent Atlantic moisture over our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If only we could get that ridge a little sharper out west. Still..liking this run a lot for 2/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 That vorticity coming down from Canada at 78 hours is beastly Real tight window, it starts to get shoved east by about 90 hours (500mb), but it's a heck of a snow producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Low end warning event for eastern half of SNE on that run...really good run for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Weird looking low, almost inv trough looking with the s/w trying to capture the low..but that's practically WSW for some ern areas. Nice trend anyways, the euro would be nice, but farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If one of these next mega s/w's (2/1 2/3 and 2/6) don't produce it's just not our year. Such strong systems aloft. (2-1 is already DOA) Obviously all of the exciting runs in the last few weeks have featured a steeper approach by the s/w...but I don't recall any featuring such a strong S/W. NAM is strong too but doesn't manage to avoid the merry go around as it comes thru the Lake and it starts to bend east for the reasons Will mentioned. Please...let this one work out, that would be a fun system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice little snow event as we prepare for Super Bowl festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 LOL rather unstable too. TTs of 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 LOL rather unstable too. TTs of 59. Well its ridiculously cold aloft with not that cold sfc temps relatively speaking...TSSN. We can always dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well its ridiculously cold aloft with not that cold sfc temps relatively speaking...TSSN. We can always dream. Yeah nice to see. Would be nice to break 6" in one setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Now Kevin, this is when you say advisory snows region wide! In all seriousness, this is probably the best run for the area yet, has .25 back to the NY/CT border, so 3+" for everyone and BOS is probably 6-8" Verbatim. It's about time one of these goes our way, hopefully this is the one! Who knows though, as we know this winter, anything can and will happen, so major caution flags still out. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 There are two other s/w's that come down afterwards. One gets taken to the meat grinder, but another forms a weak wave south of SNE on Tuesday. There almost looks like we could have a weenie trough of low pressure south of SNE creating onshore flow....but the GFS kicks it north towards ME on Wednesday. Would be awesome with low thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 There are two other s/w's that come down afterwards. One gets taken to the meat grinder, but another forms a weak wave south of SNE on Tuesday. There almost looks like we could have a weenie trough of low pressure south of SNE creating onshore flow....but the GFS kicks it north towards ME on Wednesday. Would be awesome with low thicknesses. Yeah its basically light snow for like 24-30 hours straight aided by that onshore flow. GFS would be a pretty wintry period for the first week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 am I going to have temp issues with this if it verified verbatim? Upton has me at 37 for sunday, but if this verifies will that be lower? Not sure what the correllation between storm and cold is here, still trying to figure out how it all fits together. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 ...and when we all wake up and check in the morning...it will be gone from the models again. Maybe not...let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Ukie is even more amped the GFS at 72h...not a shock though, Ukie likes to do that. Can't see beyond 72h yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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