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January 21/22 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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Trying to get the title back from its epic 12hr fail the other night. This never looked good for BOS anyways so I don't care what models showed. Whenever you are in the 7-10 split, it sux. I said this even yesterday.

Yeah but a gutter ball? At least the 7-10 gives someone something decent.

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That area of precip down over LI on radar looks like it will clip SE MA and the Cape with some decent bands of snow

 

yeah that's the last band.  It should ride up close/over me in an hour and then that's really it.  The back edge is clearly moving east through LI with that band.  I think it's all over by 11-1 west to east. 

 

Next.

Yeah but a gutter ball? At least the 7-10 gives someone something decent.

The Euro blew the other night because it missed/misplaced a tiny spin in a super fast flow. It never bit on this one from what I saw up north neither did the RGEM/GGEM which was the best with that last one.

I may have missed a run or two but I don't recall anyone indicating the RGEM/GGEM or Euro ever had this as more than what it basically is tonight.

I picked up .5" in the last hour, or just under rather. about 1.45ish OTG

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Yeah but a gutter ball? At least the 7-10 gives someone something decent.

In the met world, it's never good to be in between areas of mesoscale forcing.

Who knows, maybe with east winds it may flare up a bit after midnight. These things are fickle as we all know.

I hope some weenies learn a lesson and take advice from mets who weren't as bullish. This thing did have super hat potential...they always do.

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Some good melts this thread..lol.

 

Always thought 2-4" for Boston metro, but even that probably busts lol...

 

2 things had me rallying for more: (1) some of the SREF outputs seemed to have a last minute upswing last night / this morning, and (2) the fact that just about all TV forecasts and NWS bit the bait with their maps.

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yeah that's the last band.  It should ride up close/over me in an hour and then that's really it.  The back edge is clearly moving east through LI with that band.  I think it's all over by 11-1 west to east. 

 

Next.

The Euro blew the other night because it missed/misplaced a tiny spin in a super fast flow. It never bit on this one from what I saw up north neither did the RGEM/GGEM which was the best with that last one.

I may have missed a run or two but I don't recall anyone indicating the RGEM/GGEM or Euro ever had this as more than what it basically is tonight.

I picked up .5" in the last hour, or just under rather. about 1.45ish OTG

 

 

You will end up with more then most on here for sure, Congrats

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