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Late January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Might be a good time to get the ice scraper tuned up just in case. 12z surface on Fri:

 

attachicon.gif12zgfsice.JPG

 

We'd probably start as snow but as progged it is not a very wet system since it really never gets enough amplitude to really tap deep moisture from the gulf.  That means most of heavier precip will probably be on the north side of the low with the warm advection/isenttopic lift and them some showers with the trailing cold front.  If it were a wetter system it would be interesting. 

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I'll let the others have fun with this one and wait until later in the week to see about front end details...a back end low seems kind of improbable

 

The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end.  We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. 

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I'll let the others have fun with this one and wait until later in the week to see about front end details...a back end low seems kind of improbable

Only thing to really watch is maybe it can speed up a bit and juice up better south of the surface low as it approaches. There is an ok are of waa precip breaking out in the middle of the country in advance of the sw. Maybe it gets organized better. Who knows. I suppose we can continue to wish it south. It's not too late for that yet but we need an awful lot of help to the north.

Trailing low prob wouldn't do much anyways. Not a good axis and no signs of that changing. Any wave would scoot unless something closes off. Highly unlikely.

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The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end. We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy.

Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system.

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The back end stuff rarely works and the GFS now has the scenario that looks more real for the back end.  We need to have the system be wetter than it is on this run or our front end is going to be pretty wimpy. 

When I saw the hour 114 panel I thought there might be enough room for a decent secondary to come closer but I guess it was wishful thinking. I am wrong in thinking the further north the first low gets the better chance for a back end low.

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Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system.

I'm concerned with how dry it looks. I guess will have to see how the disturbanc/clipper on Wednesday helps this play out.

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Anyone notice that this run is about 300 miles faster?

It looks like the energy responsible for this is still well out over the Pacific. I don't have any idea how that area ranks on the data collection scale, but with as much variability just shown, I'd think we are still a bit away from clarity.

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Some people are comparing this to 12/26, your thoughts? I feel like in a way it is similar, the front end overperformed for many, especially around Baltimore where I got 1.5 se of town. This situation has a different set up at h5 and a better antecedent airmass. You'd like to think that a similar thump would be there, only problem is we dont have a sub 998 working its way up, its a west east mover at 1000+. We need that low to deepen as you said, because there could be some cad and I could see a finger of HP working in between our clipper bombing off the MA and this system.

 

Much weaker storm on the GFS. But as usual I believe the CAD will be under done on the models. Hopefully the storm will be stronger than modeled.

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This run of the gfs is rain in Leesburg verbatim....just sayin....third different solution in two days

To me it is nice not to have a locked in snow solution only to have the football pulled away. It may end up being fun to track once the models catch on to the depth of the air mass. I am fine with a frozen to rain solution.

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To me it is nice not to have a locked in snow solution only to have the football pulled away. It may end up being fun to track once the models catch on to the depth of the air mass. I am fine with a frozen to rain solution.

I agree about it not being a locked in snow solution just yet....my post about being weary of long track events is just that...more painful to lose it close to the event vs. it never showing or surprising late

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I agree about it not being a locked in snow solution just yet....my post about being weary of long track events is just that...more painful to lose it close to the event vs. it never showing or surprising late

I'm not invested in this one. If we get something great. I am all in from about 2/5 til the end. If we crap the bed then, I will be upset.

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We gain about 18C at 850 in 24 hours.

it's hard to tell how everything is moving along with the 24 hr maps

all the models show a lobe on the western flank of the PV dropping down and capturing the slp which takes it well to our west

I bet Boston has probs with this one....999mb over Lake Erie

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