mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 meh, 1/2 of Linthicum lost power and I'm 1 of them no where else in Balt metro area of consequence has power been lost I hate losing power in summer but the last time I lost it was that arctic blast in 2/07 after the 4" of concrete; that was miserable for 2+ days! I guess today is the best day to lose it as long as they get it back before the cold air invades ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i don't necessarily disagree with the idea. i think the trends today are not particularly good ones but we probably have too much faith in models that are usually wrong with details at this range. I have no doubt that the models are underplaying the arctic air some, and that places north and west can get some front end snow/ice, but for the rest of us the odds are this storm is going to be of little consequence. But he does always try to make the case, and it works for him maybe half the time at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why are people trying to figure out temps 5 days away when temps today were wrong? Seriously Long range forecasting is voodoo and magic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Whlie the next two weeks may be best chance based on the MJO, our chances during week two of this period look dicey. I see that the NAEFS from 00 UT today gives us a 70+% chance of above normal temperatures during that period. Actually, MJO currently in phase 7 (not very favorable for us). If MJO progresses as forecast, favorable phases should be realized from Feb. 3 through the end of Feb. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I feel like 18z gfs is a good scenario to root for versus trying to improve on it. And makes sense. CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS different again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I feel like 18z gfs is a good scenario to root for versus trying to improve on it. And makes sense. CAD. Light Snow to ice to drizzle/light rain looks like on 18z GFS... if the 2m temps are right... which they never are. I would take this run and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 nice run....it looks like we will be playing ping pong for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS different again Of course it is the 18z gfs but it is a reasonable scenario at least. And a best case. Mostly snow and by the time it changes over we mostly get dry slotted. Nice 2-4" thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i think we need to see what happens with that northern stream wave. a little further south and we could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Light Snow to ice to drizzle/light rain looks like on 18z GFS... if the 2m temps are right... which they never are. I would take this run and run It's probably not light. It's like .30 in like 4-5 hours I would guess. It is a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Of course it is the 18z gfs but it is a reasonable scenario at least. And a best case. Mostly snow and by the time it changes over we mostly get dry slotted. Nice 2-4" thump. i would take this in a heartbeat and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It's probably not light. It's like .30 in like 4-5 hours I would guess. It is a thump. True... looked like majority of our "heavy precip" was icy to me... but no matter... I think this is prob the best we will get out of this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i would take this in a heartbeat and call it a winter I would take it and hope we add to it. Ill take lesser too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Of course it is the 18z gfs but it is a reasonable scenario at least. And a best case. Mostly snow and by the time it changes over we mostly get dry slotted. Nice 2-4" thump. Yeah I like it too. This was the situation I mentioned to Mitch concerning the Euro....snow/sleet to slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 True... looked like majority of our "heavy precip" was icy to me... but no matter... I think this is prob the best we will get out of this system I still think the cold will be scoured too quickly on the models at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Of course it is the 18z gfs but it is a reasonable scenario at least. And a best case. Mostly snow and by the time it changes over we mostly get dry slotted. Nice 2-4" thump. This is what to look for. Once the cold air sets in and the models get to use that only then will it become clear as to p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I still think the cold will be scoured too quickly on the models at this range. I think most us agree on the surface initially. Especially for the north and west burbs. Assuming decent precip gets here very doubtful it is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'd lean cold/snowy. #weeniemode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'll take it too with no complaints <just this one time> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like the 18Z GFS offers about the best we can hope for given everything else. Not saying anything about how accurate it is, just verbatim and comparing to what we saw in earlier cycles. Though I'd love the 00Z from the other day (was that Friday night's run that looked so damn good?). I know most of us have been focusing on this event, but what are people's thoughts on the period beyond it? I know there's been discussion here and in other sub-forums on the MJO possibly cycling into phases 8-2 as we go into February, but that's kind of unclear. I've been taking cursory looks at the oper GFS and the ensemble mean just to get a feel for things. My observations (for what they're worth!) are that the deterministic GFS has generally gone to a "blah" looking pattern or getting warmish, though there have been a couple of runs that look generally cold and active with some possibilities as we go into February. The ensemble mean, however, has for some days now been emphatic with a rather chilly look in the east (with a good eastern trough, +PNA, hint of a -NAO block). This is mostly in the longer range, going past 240 hours. Oh, and one other thing, the GFS has seemed rock-solid consistent on a lakes cutter of sorts after next week's storm of interest. Not much variance that I've seen on that. EDIT: Well, looking now at the 18Z GFS in the longer range, it does look pretty interesting again (like some previous runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think most us agree on the surface initially. Especially for the north and west burbs. Assuming decent precip gets here very doubtful it is all rain. Nam will have a run where it's snowing with temps in mid teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 per the text output, DCA total qpf is .59", of which .58" falls by 7AM on Friday and IAD and BWI are very similar so it's over by 7AM; DCA gets to +.3C at 1PM while IAD and BWI remain below freezing (don't know what happens up to 4PM, but it gets cold after the storm so it can't rise much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam will have a run where it's snowing with temps in mid teensIn middle of JuneMDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think most us agree on the surface initially. Especially for the north and west burbs. Assuming decent precip gets here very doubtful it is all rain. Granted I look for my area mostly, but I notice that often in these setups that the 850 line has a way of sneaking south as we get closer too. Dec 26 is a good example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam will have a run where it's snowing with temps in mid teens Probably so...in northern Ohio! (This is only partly in jest.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 The 18z GFS gets us every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I think most us agree on the surface initially. Especially for the north and west burbs. Assuming decent precip gets here very doubtful it is all rain. Matt, .11" falls as all snow thru 1AM Friday, then another .47" falls between 1-7AM, 850's start out at -3.3 at 1AM and rise to +3C, but then are back down to +1.2 at 1 PM there's at least 2", if not closer to 3 that would fall as snow thicknesses only peak at 543, so it's probably a thin layer right at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 per the text output, DCA total qpf is .59", of which .58" falls by 7AM on Friday and IAD and BWI are very similar so it's over by 7AM; DCA gets to +.3C at 1PM while IAD and BWI remain below freezing (don't know what happens up to 4PM, but it gets cold after the storm so it can't rise much) If you put that precip with Euro temps, you have all of it falling before 850s go above zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam will have a run where it's snowing with temps in mid teens Euro will have .07" of qpf at 29 degrees in MRB and HGR with 850 temps of +1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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