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January 25-26 Storm Potential

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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I'm home on imac which works fine..Alot of iphone users can't post from phone when it's on mobile version. It says we don't have permission to post..and noone seems to be able to give us an answer when it will be fixed

If they knew why they would tell you when. Its been like 6hrs. Were there any updates done on your phone.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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out of range, but nonetheless tick tick on the 21z SREFs 0.25 and 0.5 contours

 

Yeah, .25 and .5 did definitely move.  .1 just slightly and the spread is gone as Dendrite says.

Nice of them to break the board just as a storm comes in.

 

Jay, yeah, it's contamination from the WRF members I think which were recently added. 

 

sref_namer_072_precip_p24.gif

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
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LOL.  Like you I'm frustrated with the upgrade.  I will say the issues in IE seem to be gone.  No longer getting the timeouts when trying to post/very infrequently. 

 

Skisheep, Stamford CT absolutely not, Lake Placid, yes.

Yup good to know that stamford's still in the game, even an inch to freshen up the lawns would be fabulous. Gave up on LP with this one a long time ago :)

 

-skisheep

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
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Jay, yeah, it's contamination from the WRF members I think which were recently added. 

The problem is they added more WRF members so that it's now 100% WRF. There used to be ETA and RSM members in there.

 

Seems weird to not see a few really amplified members in there...not sure if that's a red flag for those hoping for a decent NW trend or if it's just a case that the SREFs suck more than usual this far out now.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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The problem is they added more WRF members so that it's now 100% WRF. There used to be ETA and RSM members in there.

Seems weird to not see a few really amplified members in there...not sure if that's a red flag for those hoping for a decent NW trend or if it's just a case that the SREFs suck more than usual this far out now.

That's what is concerning to me. Usually there are always weenie members NW. However, as Phol noted earlier....the NAM seemed too far se with the low Friday Night. It was riding the thermal ribbon way to the south unlike the globals. Maybe that is part of it?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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The problem is they added more WRF members so that it's now 100% WRF. There used to be ETA and RSM members in there.

 

Seems weird to not see a few really amplified members in there...not sure if that's a red flag for those hoping for a decent NW trend or if it's just a case that the SREFs suck more than usual this far out now.

 

 

I don't understand why they would add more WRF members if it makes them worse. Surely they must have tested them before making it operationa. I wonder if they scored better but suck worse for east coast cyclogenesis or something. That would be a bummer.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Yup good to know that stamford's still in the game, even an inch to freshen up the lawns would be fabulous. Gave up on LP with this one a long time ago :)

 

-skisheep

 

People are confusing individual opinions/forecasts with proclamations.  There's no difference between me thinking it's a scraper at 3 days but don't give up, versus someone that says TBD.  Inherently the person saying TBD/give it time thinks something is going to change from what's currently modeled or else they'd stating what they think. 

 

Forecasts change.  We all lament forecasts from NOAA or other sources that are too slow to change.

 

We have watched models over the last 5 years take us from major snows to whiffs multiple times.  It just happened a few days ago.  The day is coming when we will have another 1/25/00 or something similar to it where models totally pick the wrong s/w pair for development, or totally miss some aspect of a system that blows up more than forecast.  It WILL happen again, it's just a matter of when.  To be clear I am absolutely, totally, without debate NOT saying this is 1/25, just pointing it out as an example.   For the most part the huge model failures always seem to work to hose us, but it will happen again that at the last minute or in the last hours a storm will blow up more than expected and we'll get buried when the models were forecasting little to no snow.  I think by the nature of the human programmed models we will always have a 30 to 1 or whatever it is ratio of snow to fail vs fail to snow, but there will always be those cases.

 

So never give up, no matter what anyone says because most of the time here we're speaking of our backyards first and foremost, and based on a consensus of the models, personal experience and gut feelings.

 

Anyway, let's hope for good things.  If this one comes around NCEP needs to retool the SREFs pronto.

 

 

Scott re the SREFs not having members NW.  I don't think it matters, the NAM is flat, the WRFs are flat too.  I have much more faith in the Euro ENS which was not far from a much bigger system.  Sure the goalposts are defined already, but like the two previous systems there's a definite dump max possibility anywhere in that zone.   The SREFs could show a blizzard in 6 hours and likewise I don't think any of us would care.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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We already had our catastrophic model bust on 1/26/11 for a monster snowstorm.

 

I'm horrible with dates.  What'd that do?

 

The point being it's never 100%.  Even if we're 99% sure it's going to miss there's always going to be that 1% that blows up in our favor.  I'd bet the odds are still way in favor of last minute Charlie browns vs last minute good times though. 

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

People are confusing individual opinions/forecasts with proclamations.  There's no difference between me thinking it's a scraper at 3 days but don't give up, versus someone that says TBD.  Inherently the person saying TBD/give it time thinks something is going to change from what's currently modeled or else they'd stating what they think. 

 

Forecasts change.  We all lament forecasts from NOAA or other sources that are too slow to change.

 

We have watched models over the last 5 years take us from major snows to whiffs multiple times.  It just happened a few days ago.  The day is coming when we will have another 1/25/00 or something similar to it where models totally pick the wrong s/w pair for development, or totally miss some aspect of a system that blows up more than forecast.  It WILL happen again, it's just a matter of when.  To be clear I am absolutely, totally, without debate NOT saying this is 1/25, just pointing it out as an example.   For the most part the huge model failures always seem to work to hose us, but it will happen again that at the last minute or in the last hours a storm will blow up more than expected and we'll get buried when the models were forecasting little to no snow.  I think by the nature of the human programmed models we will always have a 30 to 1 or whatever it is ratio of snow to fail vs fail to snow, but there will always be those cases.

 

So never give up, no matter what anyone says because most of the time here we're speaking of our backyards first and foremost, and based on a consensus of the models, personal experience and gut feelings.

 

Anyway, let's hope for good things.  If this one comes around NCEP needs to retool the SREFs pronto.

 

 

Scott re the SREFs not having members NW.  I don't think it matters, the NAM is flat, the WRFs are flat too.  I have much more faith in the Euro ENS which was not far from a much bigger system.  Sure the goalposts are defined already, but like the two previous systems there's a definite dump max possibility anywhere in that zone.   The SREFs could show a blizzard in 6 hours and likewise I don't think any of us would care.

Excellent thoughts, and something that I think more people who might lurk/infrequently post need to read. Thank's for taking the time to respond/clarify, it's much appretiated.

 

Just my opinion, and take it for what it's worth(virtually nothing), have a feeling that we see the N/W trend continue, it's been the theme all season and I think that this is no exception, also the complete shift from warning snows to nothing is too extreme, I think models overcorrected, and now are trying to compensate for that correction. My guess is 2-4" IMBY, but then again who knows.

 

Again, thanks for all of your thoughs and opinions from all, they are much appretiated!

 

-skisheep

Think snow!

 

-skisheep

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted

People are confusing individual opinions/forecasts with proclamations. There's no difference between me thinking it's a scraper at 3 days but don't give up, versus someone that says TBD. Inherently the person saying TBD/give it time thinks something is going to change from what's currently modeled or else they'd stating what they think.

Forecasts change. We all lament forecasts from NOAA or other sources that are too slow to change.

We have watched models over the last 5 years take us from major snows to whiffs multiple times. It just happened a few days ago. The day is coming when we will have another 1/25/00 or something similar to it where models totally pick the wrong s/w pair for development, or totally miss some aspect of a system that blows up more than forecast. It WILL happen again, it's just a matter of when. To be clear I am absolutely, totally, without debate NOT saying this is 1/25, just pointing it out as an example. For the most part the huge model failures always seem to work to hose us, but it will happen again that at the last minute or in the last hours a storm will blow up more than expected and we'll get buried when the models were forecasting little to no snow. I think by the nature of the human programmed models we will always have a 30 to 1 or whatever it is ratio of snow to fail vs fail to snow, but there will always be those cases.

So never give up, no matter what anyone says because most of the time here we're speaking of our backyards first and foremost, and based on a consensus of the models, personal experience and gut feelings.

Anyway, let's hope for good things. If this one comes around NCEP needs to retool the SREFs pronto.

Scott re the SREFs not having members NW. I don't think it matters, the NAM is flat, the WRFs are flat too. I have much more faith in the Euro ENS which was not far from a much bigger system. Sure the goalposts are defined already, but like the two previous systems there's a definite dump max possibility anywhere in that zone. The SREFs could show a blizzard in 6 hours and likewise I don't think any of us would care.

Pretty sure you are on the cusp of challenging Tip for longest posts ever...although, yours are more readable.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'm horrible with dates.  What'd that do?

 

The point being it's never 100%.  Even if we're 99% sure it's going to miss there's always going to be that 1% that blows up in our favor.  I'd bet the odds are still way in favor of last minute Charlie browns vs last minute good times though. 

 

 

Models pulled the rug out on a major snowstorm in the final 36-48 hours before the storm only to see it come back 12-18 hours before the storm happened. I remember about 24 hours out, most of the region had 1-3/2-4 forecast by the models and verification was 12-18"

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Models pulled the rug out on a major snowstorm in the final 36-48 hours before the storm only to see it come back 12-18 hours before the storm happened. I remember about 24 hours out, most of the region had 1-3/2-4 forecast by the models and verification was 12-18"

the Revs greatest hour, his hall of fame moment, never wavered in spite of extreme pressure, oh wait.
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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Models pulled the rug out on a major snowstorm in the final 36-48 hours before the storm only to see it come back 12-18 hours before the storm happened. I remember about 24 hours out, most of the region had 1-3/2-4 forecast by the models and verification was 12-18"

 

I must not have gotten much as I don't remember.

 

I'm thinking more though of one of the deals where we all expect a system to go out to sea all along and at the 6 or 12 hour lead we're looking at the radar blowing up to our south and end up getting buried. 

 

NAM all over the place with the energy vs the 18z.

 

BTW, I never heard of and I'm not sure anyone else has of a development version of the SREFs.  You'd have to think they did that, but it's also hard to believe they tested it and this is the result.  There are people complaining in other parts of the country too, I think it was pretty miserable around Chicago when they had the series of systems.

 

the Revs greatest hour, his hall of fame moment, never wavered in spite of extreme pressure, oh wait.

 

Great forecasters call misses before others see them just as much as the hits. That's one of the things missing in the Boston market lately.  They don't call a system dead until pretty much after the radar dries up.  When Harv was on 7, Dickie on 5, Bruce et al on 4....there was some seriously good competition....then Harv went to 5 and Todd was on 7 and it was even better until the gang broke up.

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