nzucker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think we see huge swings from Feb 8th onwards, but nothing locking in.......I do think we are done with Arctic air outside a day or two shot though, I think Feb ends up above climo snow wise, just feel a lucky hit 2nd half of month. All you need is good timing, but at least we turn stormy even though some will cut I think we get at least one big one to end the season if not a couple. I think temperatures might be a touch colder than predicted this weekend (Upton has 33/25 and 39/24), and then we may see an arctic shot behind the 2/5 threat if it manages to amplify since the PV is still hanging around near Quebec/Hudson Bay. However, winter's coldest may have passed as the stratospheric seems to be rapidly cooling and long-range models show the PV re-organizing over Kamchatka/Siberia which may put an end to our arctic outbreaks, at least for February. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming seem to dwindle past mid-February, which is when the possibility for warmth becomes stronger. Personally, I disagree that we get the big snowfall/KU event the 2nd half of February. I think the first half of the month, and potentially early March, look more favorable for a widespread 6-12" event. Some years that had weak +ENSO fading towards neutral/Nina were 53-54, 77-78, 03-04, and 04-05. Here's what March snowfall in BOS looked like in those winters: March '54: 0.4" (chilly March in many places though) March '78: 16.1" (snowiest March of late 70s but overlooked because of February blizzard) March '04: 10.6" (storms near equinox were great down here too) March '05: 14.5" (excellent March) The only thing going against us is the rapid cooling of the Pacific with a Nina emerging quickly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 mike have you narrowed down any vaca/rental home locale's (vt/nh/maine) The Jackson, NH area is the front-runner. Bethel and Waterford, ME area are still there, but in the background. We'll be checking out a few possibilties in Jackson the weekend after next. Hopefully they'll have more snow by then after the tropical monsoon en route. 27.9/27 EDIT: just went out to grab wood--lots of glaze out there at the moment. Icicles taking form--always a nice thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things. Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. Ryan I think our understanding of the interconnections has been dealt a bit of a blow the last year or two. We understand some of the pieces but we're figuring out that even though they may go together in a similar way as past years the results may be totally different. Voodoo was probably a bad choice of words but maybe some of these indicators are being relied on too much in terms of the weather they may produce when it's kind of obvious we don't know what it all means quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think temperatures might be a touch colder than predicted this weekend (Upton has 33/25 and 39/24), and then we may see an arctic shot behind the 2/5 threat if it manages to amplify since the PV is still hanging around near Quebec/Hudson Bay. However, winter's coldest may have passed as the stratospheric seems to be rapidly cooling and long-range models show the PV re-organizing over Kamchatka/Siberia which may put an end to our arctic outbreaks, at least for February. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming seem to dwindle past mid-February, which is when the possibility for warmth becomes stronger. Personally, I disagree that we get the big snowfall/KU event the 2nd half of February. I think the first half of the month, and potentially early March, look more favorable for a widespread 6-12" event. Some years that had weak +ENSO fading towards neutral/Nina were 53-54, 77-78, 03-04, and 04-05. Here's what March snowfall in BOS looked like in those winters: March '54: 0.4" (chilly March in many places though) March '78: 16.1" (snowiest March of late 70s but overlooked because of February blizzard) March '04: 10.6" (storms near equinox were great down here too) March '05: 14.5" (excellent March) The only thing going against us is the rapid cooling of the Pacific with a Nina emerging quickly: pacsst1.28.gif I will take my chances with milder/stormier,time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 32 Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 another nina zucks....this one barely took a breather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs weenied out even more than 15z for the 2/1 system. We'll see if the 00z suite gives it any support. But SREF has solid advisory for a good chunk of SNE. Esp eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 another nina zucks....this one barely took a breather I can't believe how quickly we're developing a La Nina...Classic -PDO/-ENSO signal now for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs weenied out even more than 15z for the 2/1 system. We'll see if the 00z suite gives it any support. But SREF has solid advisory for a good chunk of SNE. Esp eastern areas. SREFs weenied out even more than 15z for the 2/1 system. We'll see if the 00z suite gives it any support. But SREF has solid advisory for a good chunk of SNE. Esp eastern areas. You guys might be doing pretty well with that. Tough one for out here by the looks of it, but glad some might score a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs weenied out even more than 15z for the 2/1 system. We'll see if the 00z suite gives it any support. But SREF has solid advisory for a good chunk of SNE. Esp eastern areas. Will really weird pattern this winter with the models. The 2/1 thing was picked up on by every model but the OP Euro at one time or another (GGEM/GFS/GEFS/NOGAPS and even the JMA) only to be dropped. Yet it seems to be coming back. I like the dual s/w's coming down, it has a chance. Maybe this is the one we've been looking for to break our way. We'll see shortly. One reason post SREFs that I'm interested is the NOGAPs has had the storm for a few runs. It's a little weak but around the BM. Kind of tells me maybe this is a solid signal this time??? The 18z GEFS aren't biting, still flat and lame. Hoping for the big hit for this winter which loosely translated is a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 You guys might be doing pretty well with that. Tough one for out here by the looks of it, but glad some might score a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I will need 36" to hit avg, Unless we get real lucky its not going to happen Just about 40-41" more to hit average here. Probably going to go in the books at below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I don't see how the NAM gets us to the promised land with storm 1, but I'm loaded up on cold meds and maybe missing something. Looks like it stepped the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I will take my chances with milder/stormier,time will tell. Are you worried about temps for 2/3? Upton has me at 38 for sunday, do you think that if the clipper were to verify like the GFS or EURO have it that 38 would bust high? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 mike you are far and away the best spot for Cold air damming for SNE posters. 28.1 nice! Nope, my neighborhood usually trumps him for low temps. Elevated valley locale ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM looked a bit better ont he 2/1 threat but still not supporting the SREFs. In the end it was still just weenie flakes for far southeast areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sickening watching these pieces of energy slip south and east without the blocking they need to slow down and amplify, nice track decent airmass and bye bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sickening watching these pieces of energy slip south and east without the blocking they need to slow down and amplify, nice track decent airmass and bye bye. just not our year. hope for an early spring so we can say goodbye to this nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM looked a bit better ont he 2/1 threat but still not supporting the SREFs. In the end it was still just weenie flakes for far southeast areas. Yep 6-9 hours too slow at the surface in coming together. Same schtick different day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM looked a bit better ont he 2/1 threat but still not supporting the SREFs. In the end it was still just weenie flakes for far southeast areas. The WRFNMM looks more like the SREF's its last few runs, this could just be typical lousy NAM beyond 60 hours, even the 18Z GFS seemed closer...the CRAS even it has it for goodness sake!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The WRFNMM looks more like the SREF's its last few runs, this could just be typical lousy NAM beyond 60 hours, even the 18Z GFS seemed closer...the CRAS even it has it for goodness sake!!! Nam blew from the 18 hour range... Ie the features were moved quite a bit. Could be first guidance to see something new or the nam sucking wind as usual. We will see in an hour. It's really close just doesn't get it together. Reason I think it might be off is these are strong features unlike the messes we often have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I just can't buy the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I just can't buy the SREFs. No reason to think this system is any different than all the others. Scraper or miss? Gfs looks like its going to "back off" from the 18z scrape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I see temps in the mid 30s this weekend from stations but with 510 thicknesses? Seems a bit warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No reason to think this system is any different than all the others. Scraper or miss? Gfs looks like its going to "back off" from the 18z scrape. It was a fropa until someone mentioned the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I see temps in the mid 30s this weekend from stations but with 510 thicknesses? Seems a bit warm. Kinda unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think we need to stop comparing this winter to other winters..No 2 winters resemble one another. it is it's own winter..and when it's over it will go down however it ends I'm not looking forward to the winter that gets compared to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It was a fropa until someone mentioned the SREFs. Yeha maybe a squall or weenie snow...that's really all the other guidance has...except 18z GFS had an inch or so on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It was a fropa until someone mentioned the SREFs.Just more wasted energy both at 500mb and on the Internet, lol.A storm develops way too late, same old same old. I don't see any reason to think anything changes in the next couple. Hoping one finds the spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 So, looking ahead...when's the last time we had three disgusting winters in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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