Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Don't even bother with the NAM beyond 24-36h. It's got potential for the 2/3 deal. Timing isn't bad for the s/w coming out of the Rockies. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It's got potential for the 2/3 deal. Timing isn't bad for the s/w coming out of the Rockies. We'll see. That's the big IF. All about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 god i hope so. i do like the look of the pattern going forward with more energy coming out of the southern plains and more moisture available. factor in climo of february and that may help even the coastal dwellers make out a bit better despite us losing some of the cold. some of the runs here and there also have a bit more of "potential cold" look. i.e. while daytime temps may not be especially cold on days when it's sunny, you could easily be 25-30F with precip just because of the Continental push that seems evident north of the gradient. we don't have the ridiculously low thicknesses anymore but almost have a more widespread region covered with cooler air - if you know what i mean. I know exactly what you mean. Cold aloft, but especially if little snow cover is on the ground..you can mix fairly well and have temps not terribly cold. Snowcover begins to mean more heading into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This is the snow pack imby this morning. We'll see how it looks by thursday. Can't imagine we loose it all cuz' the torch will be quick here. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well it's going to amplify at some point. Whether that is S of us or offshore remains to be seen. I'm skeptical of anything more than light snowfall at this point for the factors I listed earlier. Theme this winter has been for a fast PAC jet not allowing for good amplification. Couple that with s/w that really are all that compact and it leads me to low expectations. The same goes for any follow-up system. If you look at the 00z Euro Op from last night you can see a s/w hot on the heels of the Sunday system. This to me, looks like it may spoil what could be a good system. After that, it looks like the trough axis out west may be too far E to allow for the follow up system to amplify close to the coast for anything substantial. Just my thoughts at this time but subject to change as we get closer. Lets hope Tip is on to something...or that the hint of ridging east of greenland midweek (I read this in a post) is enough to slow it all down a bit. At this point just some moisture and storms would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This is the snow pack imby this morning. We'll see how it looks by thursday. Can't imagine we loose it all cuz' the torch will be quick here. We'll see. CAM00629.jpg Wow, not bad. You do well up in the nrn part of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I know exactly what you mean. Cold aloft, but especially if little snow cover is on the ground..you can mix fairly well and have temps not terribly cold. Snowcover begins to mean more heading into Feb. The split flow pattern with still ridging in the PNA region has typically been a very nice pattern for larger storm threats. Hopefully we don't get too much of a vortex over AK...the better solutions have it further SW which keeps the ridge a little more pumped over NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Lets hope Tip is on to something...or that the hint of ridging east of greenland midweek (I read this in a post) is enough to slow it all down a bit. At this point just some moisture and storms would be nice... I love the thoughts he's laid out but they are also not cast in stone. The last "event" fizzled out after some great teleconnections and model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The split flow pattern with still ridging in the PNA region has typically been a very nice pattern for larger storm threats. Hopefully we don't get too much of a vortex over AK...the better solutions have it further SW which keeps the ridge a little more pumped over NW Canada. Yeah fingers crossed. The euro backed off the vomit at 12z...but I would like to see a little more improvement. The GEFS actually looked a hair better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 MOS has backed off on the mid 30s for Fri/Sat...now keeps it in the upper 20s. I thought some of those 34F forecast highs for ORH with 510 thicknesses looked a little bizarre. I think even for BOS those numbers are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wow, not bad. You do well up in the nrn part of the valley. Downtown has less, I'm tucked in a little elevated neighborhood in the Green River Valley. Tight little valley with hills E, N & S keep this neighborhood cold. Even my neighbor who posts here (Doug 1991) will sometimes have less snow and he is less than a mile from me. Overall Greenfield is usually the cold border in the winter for this part of the Valley. Deerfield and points to the S are often warmer w/ less ability to hold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 another 1" event .. awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 MOS has backed off on the mid 30s for Fri/Sat...now keeps it in the upper 20s. I thought some of those 34F forecast highs for ORH with 510 thicknesses looked a little bizarre. I think even for BOS those numbers are too warm. euro would argue for 20s on saturday i think...even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 MOS has backed off on the mid 30s for Fri/Sat...now keeps it in the upper 20s. I thought some of those 34F forecast highs for ORH with 510 thicknesses looked a little bizarre. I think even for BOS those numbers are too warm. Yeah I mentioned some stations having mid 30s here last night. This isn't March..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Downtown has less, I'm tucked in a little elevated neighborhood in the Green River Valley. Tight little valley with hills E, N & S keep this neighborhood cold. Even my neighbor who posts here (Doug 1991) will sometimes have less snow and he is less than a mile from me. Overall Greenfield is usually the cold border in the winter for this part of the Valley. Deerfield and points to the S are often warmer w/ less ability to hold snow. Nice little microclimate for sure. Mine unfortunately is the wrong kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 euro would argue for 20s on saturday i think...even here. Sweet, lets get some cover down. Yesterday morning was a spectacular winter morning, hope to see that again by Sunday. Even 1-2 OTG looked fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 This is the snow pack imby this morning. We'll see how it looks by thursday. Can't imagine we loose it all cuz' the torch will be quick here. We'll see. CAM00629.jpg Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sweet, lets get some cover down. Yesterday morning was a spectacular winter morning, hope to see that again by Sunday. Even 1-2 OTG looked fantastic. I've pretty much had continuous snow cover sicne Christmas...we got down to about 50-60% cover briefly after the 1/14 torch day that Monday before the overrunning event the next night covered everything up again. Since then the pack has been pretty consistently around 3-5"...but its all gonna go today/tonight except the piles. We haven't been able to build a deeper snow pack with the lack of larger events. We did briefly have about 12-14" OTG after the 12/25-12/29 stretch...which managed to survive almost the whole Jan 5-14 torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 I've pretty much had continuous snow cover sicne Christmas...we got down to about 50-60% cover briefly after the 1/14 torch day that Monday before the overrunning event the next night covered everything up again. Since then the pack has been pretty consistently around 3-5"...but its all gonna go today/tonight except the piles. We haven't been able to build a deeper snow pack with the lack of larger events. We did briefly have about 12-14" OTG after the 12/25-12/29 stretch...which managed to survive almost the whole Jan 5-14 torch. Yes it has been nice in our neck of the woods and areas to our SE. HFD and BOS are brutal snow melters in this type of pattern, I guess those folks whose yards are in the shadow of a high rise retain some cover but just the heat radiating off the concrete jungle vaporizes everything. Even in ORH and interstate areas across the region, the highways show what asphalt does, you get off the highway and the neighborhoods looked great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yes it has been nice in our neck of the woods and areas to our SE. HFD and BOS are brutal snow melters in this type of pattern, I guess those folks whose yards are in the shadow of a high rise retain some cover but just the heat radiating off the concrete jungle vaporizes everything. Even in ORH and interstate areas across the region, the highways show what asphalt does, you get off the highway and the neighborhoods looked great. XXX in Moosup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 XXX in Moosup? He just said no big deal due to minimal snow pack in New England lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 XXX in Moosup? Was best looking 2 inches ever? Feb needs to rock with its c out. Your predicted Morch is going to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 He just said no big deal due to minimal snow pack in New England lol. wTF are you talking about, I have zero snowpack this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If you didn't know any better or were new to the board you would think that E Ma leads the region in snowfall and has the most exciting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If you didn't know any better or were new to the board you would think that E Ma leads the region in snowfall and has the most exciting weather. certainly don't have the most snowfall...but do get exciting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 certainly don't have the most snowfall...but do get exciting weather. Well the Cape was where I would have like to have been the last week and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Tolland has exciting weather? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Tolland has exciting weather? lol Well they do get a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Tolland has exciting weather? lol it's all relative. each area has its +/- there's a lot more snow out there. then again...the top end of the good events is much lower than it is further east and north. our area doesn't do nearly as well for seasonal totals but when we get it, we get it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Interesting how the GFS took the Euro's place of "Dr No." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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