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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Thanks Will.  That's amazing.  I bet Phil is probably around climo too. 

 

 

How much does Phil have?

 

If he's at around 13-14" then he's prob near climo. I don't remember how much he got in each storm. I know he got 4 or 5" in 12/29, almost 4" in the last one. Ifhe nickled/dimed his way to another 5" then he's prob doing fine. That area averages around 33" per year I think, but its a bit weighted toward February versus most of the region, so climo might even be a bit below 13-14" right now.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Thanks Will. That's amazing. I bet Phil is probably around climo too.

How much does Phil have?

If he's at around 13-14" then he's prob near climo. I don't remember how much he got in each storm. I know he got 4 or 5" in 12/29, almost 4" in the last one. Ifhe nickled/dimed his way to another 5" then he's prob doing fine. That area averages around 33" per year I think, but its a bit weighted toward February versus most of the region, so climo might even be a bit below 13-14" right now.

I'm at 10.75". It seems like more perhaps because other areas have had a tougher go if it and mine's been more recent... but that's it. I'd say close to on target this far.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
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23% below norm is considered "slight"?

 

 

Not over a full season, but when you are talking about partial seasons, then the percentage matters a lot less since the average is lower. They dont call a 12" season in DCA a disaster even though is like 20% below average because its only 3" of snow.

 

If you start to fall 12-16" behind climo, then it becomes more worrisome. On Dec 24th, i was about 9" below climo...by Dec 29th, I was about 8" over climo. I guess it all depends on how you look at it. If you fall 12" below climo but a monster storm is in the forecast a couple days out, then you probably don't care that much as you will be back right near climo after the storm...but if it continues to look bleak, then that is a different picture.

 

 

Personally, I'd wait another 10-15 days before starting to really worry if we will finish significantly below climo. It might be a bit sooner in some other areas as they got screwed earlier this winter.

Thank you. It's slight when its something that can easily be made up. This winter isn't great but to call it one of the worst winters is a joke and expecting way to much of a SNE winter.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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PWM is actually running +2.6" while CON is -12.2" (GYX is -9.6"). Reverse of the BOS screw zone so far up here.

Yeah CNE/NNE has had it rough. I mean Plymouth State has 23". BOS has had it rough too.

 

That November storm was interesting as it looked like a NNE deal and the snow just got destroyed by dry air...we were in an advisory in Plymouth IIRC. Parts of CT had over 1'. That helped a lot of areas in CT with yearly totals.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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This winter has been one of the worst for snow in Boston. I don't know  what's so hard to understand... For much of SNE though, it's been near average. But from Boston area points NE through the North Shore, it's been truly terrible.

 

Even still, if the area does average from here on out (entirely possible to do 21 more inches) BOS wouldn't even crack the top 30 worst snow seasons.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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True, hopefully we can achieve clmo from here on out. This streak has to end at some point

 

The sites that are truly getting screwed are just interior from the true coastal plain. Those areas missed out on the first part of the year when climo says they should be getting snow, BOS and other coastal locations don't really start their snow season until late December anyway. So relative to climo here on out, CON for instance needs to do better than climo to achieve a better than bottom 30 snowfall season whereas BOS can be right down the middle.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Even still, if the area does average from here on out (entirely possible to do 21 more inches) BOS wouldn't even crack the top 30 worst snow seasons.

 

 

Yeah last year was so bad because February was a near shutout along with March. Unless that happens again, this will probably not go down as historically bad.

 

Bad start for usre, but we've been in worse spots before for Boston...2006-2007 being the most recent but far from the only one that was worse to date. '94-'95 was also worse IIRC, and so was '91-'92, '88-'89, '85-'86, '79-'80, '74-'75.

 

 

And not sure further back but I think even the great winter of '57-'58 was horrendous in BOS through Feb 1st.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Yeah last year was so bad because February was a near shutout along with March. Unless that happens again, this will probably not go down as historically bad.

 

Bad start for usre, but we've been in worse spots before for Boston...2006-2007 being the most recent but far from the only one that was worse to date. '94-'95 was also worse IIRC, and so was '91-'92, '88-'89, '85-'86, '79-'80, '74-'75.

 

 

And not sure further back but I think even the great winter of '57-'58 was horrendous in BOS through Feb 1st.

 

Using the BOS ThreadEx site, this year is sitting at 15th worst start to date. You are correct on all of those and '57-'58 (only 5.4" to date) but '74-'75 was actually a few tenths better to date. FWIW, BOS is actually worse than last year at this date by 0.2". And the futility "winners" through 1/24 are both 2007 and 1928 with only 1.5" of snow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Using the BOS ThreadEx site, this year is sitting at 15th worst start to date. You are correct on all of those and '57-'58 (only 5.4" to date) but '74-'75 was actually a few tenths better to date. FWIW, BOS is actually worse than last year at this date by 0.2". And the futility "winners" through 1/24 are both 2007 and 1928 with only 1.5" of snow.

 

 

 

Looking at a few more years....amazingly, 1968-1969 was worse than this year to date too...but then BOS proceeded to have its 2nd snowiest February on record with 41.3" in Feb 1969. Years like 1966-1967 weren't much better through the end of January and also had a big comeback.

 

Many of those winters on the list never mounted much of a comeback....but several did like the already mentioned '57-'58, '68-'69, '66-'67, and '58-'59. '55-'56 was doing pretty poorly as well and made a huge comeback.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Boston is the screwzone winner....here's the departures (in inches) for snowfall thus far:

 

BOS: -13.0

ORH: +1.1

PVD: -1.0

BDL: +0.8

 

BTV is +3.3" on the season as of today... much different from last season:

 

This year to date: 43.6"

Last year to date: 22.1"

 

Last year was a royal screw for BTV as over here at only one county east and only 450ft higher in elevation, I had 3 times the amount of snow that BTV had (in town, not mountain).  Most of our snow last year was Spine induced snow, so even with not much elevation change, the nearby topography really helped out here in the village.  We had a couple big upslope events that really helped last year's totals in this area.

 

So far this winter, we haven't really seen any pronounced upslope evenst (like 10-30 inch type events) yet, so although I'm about 10" higher than BTV from nickle and dime upslope (1-3" events), that spread between the valley and the upslope region is not as great as it usually is.

 

I'll have to do some looking into it, but I think the upslope region is below normal snowfall so far this season, while the valleys and cities seem to be near normal to a couple inches above.  What is for sure, is this area is going to be well below normal for January with only around 12" of snowfall (we average over 30" in January in the village).

 

So with about 30% of January snowfall, we are falling behind climo by a good bit all the sudden, as we should be snowing almost daily and averaging over 1"/day for this month.

 

J.Spin's data also shows this, with his spot only having 14.9" so far in January and his average is 40.6" for the month.  The more I look at the stats, its actually been a pretty brutal month for snowfall...one of the lowest January's in a long time.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

BTW, if you recall....I mentioned the fact that we'll see some more storms as more Paciic energy moves into the US...even potential for taint or a cutter. If you look at the operational GFS and even ensembles...they show just that. I think the cold won't be the biggest deal with PAC jet impinging on us. We'll have more storm chances for sure.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
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I'm only at 23.5" for the season, which is about a foot below average up to this point. We've gotten skunked a bit this year, especially with regards to the 11/7/12 event as that would've been a big event if the low hadn't ticked SE at the last moment. 12/29/12 was a bit wide right (although I did get 3.5" of upslope the next morning) and 12/26-27/12 tainted, albeit barely as AQW stayed all snow.

 

Last year up this point, I was at 50.5" (final season total was 65") which is actually a little over a foot above normal thanks to Snowtober. Sans Snowtober, I was at 24" at this point last winter; so essentially we're about even with last winter, barring that one epic meteorological anomaly.

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