Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Everyone keeps saying they've never seem such big swings in the models. So no one remembers a couple winters ago...Feb 2009 I believe. IIRC...models were looking like a HV runner up until about 72 hours out. Then suddenly we had a couple runs that trended way east and got us in the game for a MECs. Everyone got amped up. Then 48-60 hours out...models started trending back west to a HV runner...but the didn't stop there. When all was said and done the low went to fooking Chicago. That is the most ridiculous flip-flopping and model performance within 72 hours I've seen. Models have been screwing with our heads ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 03z SREF's give me some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 HPC QPF Totals from yesterday to today. Still nice amounts for the civilized parts of New England. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Boston TV mets all calling for dusting. F them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Boston TV mets all calling for dusting. F them What do you expect them to do? Call for a foot an bust like last December Lu? They are playing conservative as they should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Boston TV mets all calling for dusting. F them Now we have a new breed....rip and read Euro. For the short term that would be correct but xtnded Euro gives a snowstorm Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 HPC overnight. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLENDED THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWFENS MEAN DAYS 3 TO 5. THIS KEPT UP A WIND AND COASTAL SNOW THREAT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DAYS 4-5 LATE SUN INTO TUES. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE REVERSED SOLUTIONS SINCE YTDAS 12Z RUNS WITH THE N ATLC LOW. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF LAST 4 RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED KEEPING THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE 00Z OP ECMWF CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND EASILY CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm feeling really confident on the 12z cause of the srefs.. I think the Nam could be a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yesterday's double crush runs on the Euro was amazing if just for great winter weather porn but how common with a coastal snow event of any magnitude is it for there to be runs like the euro that crush just about all of sne at some point leading up to the actual event? Based on the last five seasons here in the Springfield Mass area we are at a deficit of about 40 inches or a little more...going on a 50 inch average. The last storm which brought a foot plus of snow was the Feb 06 event that put down 16 inches where I live, however just west of here, literally a few miles some parts of Springfield only had 8-10 inches while just to the east of where I am (east forest park) upwards to 21 inches of snow fell, all within the city limits!! I have only been in the Springfield area for five winters (this being my sixth). Is there anyone here who has lived in Springfield and measured an honest two foot event? I know kcef never has had one documented. I've lived around Springfield for over 20 years...never saw 2 feet. The biggest one I personally saw was March 93 where we had about 18". Jan 96 was 15.5" in my backyard. I was in Worcester during Feb 06 and in NYC during PD II -- those look like they were foot and a half events around Springfield. I think the closest Springfield came recently was in Feb 01 when I was in CT -- there were several reports close to 2 feet and my family told me there was 2 feet...that was a gross estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Gun to your head....or maybe what you'll need to do today for a paycheck...what's your sense Scott? It's amazing what 40-50 miles will mean for us. I think we will see some snow, and a mdt event could be in the cards for us. Even the euro has a significant amount of wrap around snow for us, so if we just get clipped by the main low, we could have several inches of wrap around. I've never seen such wild swings in both the op runs and ensembles, which makes confidence shaky at best, but I do think we'll see a decent event. My gut says 12z may trend west just a bit, but nothing would surprise me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I was but I tried killing 2 birds. Curiosity of who you were on the old chat (ne.weather, #weather, #neweather, etc). Good luck with this event. Thanks. I was Stormsurf back then(I think lol). My memory is fading from my 52 year old melon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ok big guy. Try driving here on a daily basis with all season radials. I pull you guys out of ditches all winter. i see your a tough guy and i was just trying to make conversation . never have gone into a ditch so i guess you wont be pulling me out of any snow bank soon or my F250 and the ones in ditches don't know how to drive . back to the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think we see more models shift west again today may not be huge swings but really for the most part they do not need to be, With all the data finally onshore today we should hopefully start to see some positive trends and be able to start sustaining them for a few cycles.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Shadow, you have to understand that MRG lives in Northwest Ontario not NW Mass. you dont get snow up their hehehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm feeling really confident on the 12z cause of the srefs.. I think the Nam could be a huge hit I hope you are right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 You guys want to get a new thread going now for the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think we see more models shift west again today may not be huge swings but really for the most part they do not need to be, With all the data finally onshore today we should hopefully start to see some positive trends and be able to start sustaining them for a few cycles.......... Exactly.. I've seen models shift 100 miles 48 hours out in less complicated setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It's amazing what 40-50 miles will mean for us. I think we will see some snow, and a mdt event could be in the cards for us. Even the euro has a significant amount of wrap around snow for us, so if we just get clipped by the main low, we could have several inches of wrap around. I've never seen such wild swings in both the op runs and ensembles, which makes confidence shaky at best, but I do think we'll see a decent event. My gut says 12z may trend west just a bit, but nothing would surprise me at this point. I wouldn't even rule out something much bigger, but the odds of that are much less. The thing is, if you get into the comma head of a low moving north and then nw...watch out. The GFS is close to that. As Ray would say, someone in AZ could fart and change the orientation of the s/w coming across the south. Phasing is a very intricate process, so if the s/w is just a little off or perhaps less intense...then we see big downstream changes. It's the classic saying of, small change here means big change there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 HPC QPF Totals from yesterday to today. Sierra Nevada FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Guys.. please remember what dt and Wes said last night.. that s/w wont be on shore until 12z! So lets wait through the 12z runs before we jump ship... srefs NW is huge IMO.. Nam will.certainly come west... We are only 150 miles of heavy snow! Because this stalls perfectly Got to give you credit for bringing some sanity to the board for these events. As stated we are talking about a storm that has not even formed folks. It would be funny if this came around to being a more strung out disorganized system after all the hype about major coastal bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I wouldn't even rule out something much bigger, but the odds of that are much less. The thing is, if you get into the comma head of a low moving north and then nw...watch out. The GFS is close to that. As Ray would say, someone in AZ could fart and change the orientation of the s/w coming across the south. Phasing is a very intricate process, so if the s/w is just a little off or perhaps less intense...then we see big downstream changes. It's the classic saying of, small change here means big change there. dam i just farted i hope this storm wont be going ots now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The major hit was like lighting the fuse to a keg of gunpowder. Off hour model runs not a big fan. Down to a short fuse the keg maybe gone but its going to snow. Consolaton and holding out for a 12Z return to atleast a stick of dynomite. <6+> EMASS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 dam i just farted i hope this storm wont be going ots now Congrats on the worst post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What a rollercoaster ride. Blockbuster, out to sea, historic blizzard, mixing concerns, coastal scraper. It really makes me nervous that even the best-case scenarios seem to rely heavily on late trowal/wraparound/retro snows, which never seem to pan out as hoped. Even if this does end up coming together as currently depicted, it's going to be nerve-wracking watching the radar returns since it likely won't be the classic scenario of snows steadlily creeping up the coast. Instead, many of us will be watching and waiting for the late left hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats on the worst post ever. thank u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 24" in Westfield, most of which fell in 8 hours. 2001 (?). Awesome, awesome, awesome rates. That was 2/5/01. I was visiting a friend in East Longmeadow Mass...we measured exactly 24" inches in 11 or 12 hours...measuring 3 to 4 inches in an hour at one point during the early evening. Thunder and lightning too. The snow came in like a wall...went from nothing to S+ almost immediately...and stayed that way. Awesome storm...one of my favorites...especially since I was just visiting a friend and ordinarily wouldn't have been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do I get the sense people only think it's gonna snow in Eastern Mass? All modelling has snow back into ENY state All there is is talk about Eastern Mass when the majority of posters don't even live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do I get the sense people only think it's gonna snow in Eastern Mass? All modelling has snow back into ENY state All there is is talk about Eastern Mass when the majority of posters don't even live there You're right -- some of us live even further east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why do I get the sense people only think it's gonna snow in Eastern Mass? All modelling has snow back into ENY state All there is is talk about Eastern Mass when the majority of posters don't even live there Yes, the euro also has wrap around moisture back to God's country. Jerry just asked me a question about BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the HPC precip maps still give a foot of snow to much of the area and closer to 2 feet for the areas that flirt with but don't changeover...Ray? Ray?? RAY!!! Mr Jayhawk you getting some love too and Jerry not so bad man. Everything shifts back west a bit shortly. Dont' forget our strong baroclinic zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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