moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Dude. How much longer can it trend NW? We are less than 12 hours from the dang event. It will be raining over Eastern SNE if you keep it trending. LOL. Any 'trends' in the next suite of runs will be significant for areas downstream (GYX./CAR). For here they'll merely reflect what we're reporting on the obs thread I think. Congrats east of 190-395. The rest of us will enjoy our advisory refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 More and people should agree with me. They'd get more snow and they'd lead happier lives. Yeah there's going to be 12+ amounts. If I had to pick a spot I'd say Norfolk/Foxboro area of Mass over to Putnam ,CT You've stayed steadfast. Good for you. I think we will make out well here. There were a few of us who saw this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 where do you see that? curious to learn. Well it's a little less here, but when you see that top layer follow a moist adiabat like that..or even if it tilts more to the left (this is conditionally unstable)..it's possible it could signal heavier bands of snow. Here is a better example. Notice the top of this sounding bend back. It's in between the dry adiabatic lapse rate and moist adiabatic lapse rate...yet this parcel of air is moist. This means that the parcel is unstable and could be convective. Also, if there is any frontogenic forcing to help force the parcel to rise even more....the better chance you have to get heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wow RAP destroys me early this evening to about 2am.....f uckng destroyed! Go frolic with the furry friends! We watched one fatty carrying a dunkin donuts coffee cup up a tree. City squirrels arr gangsta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The NAM pounds EWB with strong omega in the max dendritic region 00-03z. That area will rock later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Scott...new gfs has a decent signal for strong banding across all of SE Mass and RI...mid level frontogen values between 100-200 units with some negative epv on top...looks real good around 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wow RAP destroys me early this evening to about 2am.....f uckng destroyed! Were getting smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The NAM pounds EWB with strong omega in the max dendritic region 00-03z. That area will rock later. From what I saw in SE MA...it could be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wow RAP destroys me early this evening to about 2am.....f uckng destroyed! just want to verify,, the RAP is not the HRRR correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Could be an interesting drive back from work 8-9pm. Flurries or pounding +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm starting to think 8+ is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It had the .5'' contour to us this run, but I looked at the Euro and the NAM and it doesn't quite reach us on them. Picturing lots of subsidence and 3-4'' out of this, not inclined to raise my expectations any more than that. Pretty much agree with this. Fairly minor advisory snow for us. Someone in the bottom half of NH might sneak a weenie 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Scott...new gfs has a decent signal for strong banding across all of SE Mass and RI...mid level frontogen values between 100-200 units with some negative epv on top...looks real good around 00z. That's what it looked liked on the other products too. I'm hoping the frontogenesis and lift from 700-600 gets into this area..I think it will. Sometimes I like to look just NW of the big 700 omega gradient for the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 just want to verify,, the RAP is not the HRRR correct? new RUC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm starting to think 8+ is possible. GFS is still warm to start here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At my girlfriends place in on the Plympton/Middleboro line, she doesn't seem to get why I'm giggling and smiling uncontrollably. Been too long since we've had a good threat like this! Hope everyone gets some snow and last winter is forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well it's a little less here, but when you see that top layer follow a moist adiabat like that..or even if it tilts more to the left (this is conditionally unstable)..it's possible it could signal heavier bands of snow. Here is a better example. Notice the top of this sounding bend back. It's in between the dry adiabatic lapse rate and moist adiabatic lapse rate...yet this parcel of air is moist. This means that the parcel is unstable and could be convective. Also, if there is any frontogenic forcing to help force the parcel to rise even more....the better chance you have to get heavier snow. Thanks Scott! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where's he working?? Good for him!! I believe he is now employed at WSI. Only reason I know he got a job is because I received his Teaching Assistant position when he left. NECN biting hard on the left side of system developing and nailing Eastern SNE. 10" totals for all from say 495 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 new RUC? RAP replace the RUC yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It had the .5'' contour to us this run, but I looked at the Euro and the NAM and it doesn't quite reach us on them. Picturing lots of subsidence and 3-4'' out of this, not inclined to raise my expectations any more than that. I have 3-6" for southern NH except 6-10" along the immediate MA border (expecting 6 not 10, but I like to keep my ranges even... not go 3-6/4-8 etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Ray should do ok if he gets in on a band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 GFS is still warm to start here. I think that warmth will be short lived with this bomber and in any case I'm feeling good abut where I sit a few miles further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That's what it looked liked on the other products too. I'm hoping the frontogenesis and lift from 700-600 gets into this area..I think it will. Sometimes I like to look just NW of the big 700 omega gradient for the good stuff. Yeah, i like to look for the best banding to cling to the northern edge of the frontogen max...so if the gfs is a perfect prog that would be between pym and owd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 new RUC? seems that the RAP and HRRR do a similar thing, so just wondering what the differences are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 There will be many doubled digit reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I believe he is now employed at WSI. Only reason I know he got a job is because I received his Teaching Assistant position when he left. NECN biting hard on the left side of system developing and nailing Eastern SNE. 10" totals for all from say 495 in. congrats! Tim Kelly is on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My guess is that BOX will expand the warning to Tolland and Rockingham Counties and add a couple inches to the areas currently in the warning area. That would seem reasonable and prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I have 3-6" for southern NH except 6-10" along the immediate MA border (expecting 6 not 10, but I like to keep my ranges even... not go 3-6/4-8 etc). That's me, I'm about 2 miles or so from the MA border. I don't know I just don't think I'll hit 6''...maybe I can weenie my way to 4.5'' or 5'' but even then I kinda doubt it. Probably won't even be a fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Pretty much agree with this. Fairly minor advisory snow for us. Someone in the bottom half of NH might sneak a weenie 5" I disagree the storm is stronger and further north than modeled. reports out of ohio and penn. is that what was expected for accumulations they actually received higher amounts. I think a good 4 to 6" is likely of coarse this is my opinion we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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