snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 No I dont believe it but hey 10-16'' could be possible. Funniest thing about that map is that it'd still be snowing beyond 84. 24-27" and counting. And no, I don't think 10-16" is a realistic expectation either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What's your prediction for northeastern IL Geos? I think will get accumulating lake effect. If we do get synoptic snow it will be blended with lake enhancement. Light steady snow for a time, then maybe some moderate lake effect as the system pulls away. More then we got with Thursday night. I would say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 With the last storm, other than that one run on the 72+ hr run of the nam that was way nw, how accurate was it once it got within 60 hrs? Not that it relates to this storm, but just curious At this point it was agreement with the other models. It started NW but quickly caved to the other models.. At this point http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012121806&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 last storm dropped almost 2.5" qpf here. Not that it means much of anything for this storm. With it being a slow mover.. Is some convective/confection snow or w/e you call it, lol, possible? This could be real big for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You don't really think we're getting any snow with this do you? There is going to be no NW trend that gets us anything and the LES looks like crap for up here.. Fun to track I suppose if there is nothing else to do but we've been cooked for days. Fun to track, and that is why I am tracking it. A lot on the line I suppose for SEMI posters and Snowstormcanuck, not to mention St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What the hell. Gonna run BUFKIT on this ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Lock that sucker in! I'll gladly take that isolated 1' speck right on top of Flora LOL No Kidding looks like anyone East of 55 along and to the south of 72 get a pretty good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What the hell. Gonna run BUFKIT on this ma. At the very worst you can bring it back just to show how awful the models are when you get 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 No I dont believe it but hey 10-16'' could be possible. This model goes over board with the snowfall totals LOL, but realistically i think for now 6-10 inches seems more reasonable, again this is still 50+ hours out so a few things can still change, again its something exciting, finally. I will be paying more attention to this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Funniest thing about that map is that it'd still be snowing beyond 84. 24-27" and counting. And no, I don't think 10-16" is a realistic expectation either. Best model run you've ever seen for your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 haha, the clown map is too jokes but its put me in the Winter spirit. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 At the very worst you can bring it back just to show how awful the models are when you get 2" I'll add it to the collection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 haha, the clown map is too jokes but its put me in the Winter spirit. http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif Meh...That's pretty typical from Detroit to Toronto. Run of the mill storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Lol...after that, I am truly in the donut hole. I am so disappointed that I moved here during such crappy winters ..and all the southeast MI folks can guilt trip me and tell me to be "happy with what I get in a lake effect snow belt", but truth is, this area seems to SUCK synoptically...and if the winds aren't right, there is no lake effect....and the winds haven't been right for several winters. Urgh. Yep.. The zone between here, Bowme and you has been the screw zone for several winters now. It is bound to change. Just a matter of when. Even though i appear to be in a better spot for this event then you i am still not sold on it. As that snowmap shows it wont take much of a shift to end up with a total miss here. Plus it is hard to get excited when the main features are tracking across KY. RARELY does it work out here when that happens. Thus my doubts about the higher QPF up this way that this model showed. We'll see anyways. Gut says the nw trend stops and maybe even a little tick back to the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Best model run you've ever seen for your backyard? Off the top of my head, I can't recall any model outputting north of 2 feet. VD 2007, Dec 2007 and GHD 2011 had a few nutso runs, but I don't think this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM QPF is always a joke. Anyone remember yesterday when it showed 0.5"+ tomorrow for southern Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This model goes over board with the snowfall totals LOL, but realistically i think for now 6-10 inches seems more reasonable, again this is still 50+ hours out so a few things can still change, again its something exciting, finally. I will be paying more attention to this now. Based on what the models are showing now, I agree with 6-10. Aside from the NAM, it's not being advertised by any of the other models as a particularly protracted event. Maybe 12 hours. I hesitate to throw up big numbers when things are quick moving like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yep.. The zone between here, Bowme and you has been the screw zone for several winters now. It is bound to change. Just a matter of when. Even though i appear to be in a better spot for this event then you i am still not sold on it. As that snowmap shows it wont take much of a shift to end up with a total miss here. Plus it is hard to get excited when the main features are tracking across KY. RARELY does it work out here when that happens. Thus my doubts about the higher QPF up this way that this model showed. We'll see anyways. Gut says the nw trend stops and maybe even a little tick back to the se. How on earth do we get snowstorms here? The climate here is so frustrating! It either weakens, warms up and we get rain, orit goes southeast. Is it just unfortunate luck that we keep getting screwed or is this part of the climate? Soooo frustrated that I moved here for winter and have gotten years of fall and summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Take the complaining to the complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Daayum, this storm looking better and better for those in the swath. Those are some mighty impressive snowfall totals being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I trust that since the San Francisco area currently has numerous flash flood warnings that this system is onshore and data for both the NAM and the upcoming GFS will be current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Meh...That's pretty typical from Detroit to Toronto. Run of the mill storm Is this the popular phrase this year? I think I have read that at least 5 times already this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Cant see the upper level maps, so I don't have an idea of what might happen, but RGEM at 48 has a sub 1000mb low on the AR/MS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When does this get sampled? anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This looks GREAT for those of you in Indiana and Toronto!!!!!!! :) I am SO happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 its coming on shore now, full sample tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When does this get sampled? anyone know? It's about halfway there. Probably will be fully onshore for tomorrow's 12z run, or 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Cant see the upper level maps, so I don't have an idea of what might happen, but RGEM at 48 has a sub 1000mb low on the AR/MS border. Lots of heavy snow over the northwestern half of Arkansas. Also southern Missouri spreading into southern Illinois. Looks like it would end up being good for STL through LAF to DET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We've reached critical stage folks. Unhinged posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Lots of heavy snow over the northwestern half of Arkansas. Also southern Missouri spreading into southern Illinois. Looks like it would end up being good for STL through LAF to DET. Guess I could have just posted the image lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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