HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 In a week or 2 this will all be a fleeting memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Took my daughter to Bright Nights in Springfield tonight. Really glad I got in the "thru lanes" and was able to approach from the other side. The line to get in was over half a mile in the initial direction and about 12 cars when I looped to the other. Dense fog coming up to the Pit on the way home. Much worse than the wording in the forecast. Pretty darn toasty tonight--37.1/37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This is possibly the greatest image ever posted to this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I heard from a reliable source that the new euro monthlies look more colder with more of a -AO and the vortex more in central canada for the rest of winter FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Sure, lots of mets express their thoughts compellingly and articulately. I just believe there is very low skill in long range forecasting. And further, if you're looking for snow, as many of us are, this is not a fruitful place to look. That's just my opinion. It seems to me there are a lot more long range prognosticators around here than there are solid medium and short range synoptic forecasters. I think that's kind of unfortunate. But I have been around here a while, and I know they do come out and show their stuff when there's actually something to talk about in the short range... which there really isn't right now. wtf are you talking about? there are some fantastic short and medium range forecasters on here. I think this whole rant you are on is a big ole projection and you need to look in the mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I heard from a reliable source that the new euro monthlies look more colder with more of a -AO and the vortex more in central canada for the rest of winter FWIW was this reliable source blizz or jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 was this reliable source blizz or jb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'll put it simple. Every "red tagger" (i.e., undersgrad degree in meteorology?) that I read who described the future pattern or provided a long range forecast over the past month predicted an improving winter pattern beginning by early December. In fact the "pattern" has gotten worse for wintry precipitation. The predicted improvement is always far enough out into the future so we can't know for sure that it's wrong. Eventually it will snow... it is winter after all. But nobody on here is particular good at seeing it coming beyond 10 days. It's been like this since the early 2000s on all the weather boards. People really think they can see the future. But it's just a lot more complicated that most people acknowledge. MJO, NAO, PNA, stratospheric temps... yes, they are all correlated somehow, but even if we could predict their state weeks from now, they don't tell the full story. Suggesting that we could end up on the wrong side of the "boundary" isn't exactly going out on a limb. If that's true, then the "pattern" wasn't ever very encouraging after all. The word "pattern" doesn't even really have much of a tangible meaning unless you're a climatologist. And gradient pattern means even less, considering the entire N Hemisphere is a gradient. stupid things bolded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Guys remember the monster winter in se mass (think it was) 04-05. Well did that feature a strong blocking or a anomalous epo or pna. Thanks (on mobile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 was this reliable source blizz or jb Brett Anderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Brett Anderson yep... Model has more of a -AO look for the rest of the winter with polar vortex supressed south into north/central Can. http://twitter.com/B...481568375808000 Also mentioned: For JFM combined period model is showing moist zone from Ohio Valley into southern Ont/Que and into Atl. Can Model is actually now slightly colder than normal around Great Lakes and near normal rest of E. Can and NE U.S. All and all, the model does look more promising than earlier runs for snow lovers in the NE/East Can. Will post maps Monday morning. New ECMWF seasonal basically indicates no chance for El Nino this winter...its near-neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Took my daughter to Bright Nights in Springfield tonight. Really glad I got in the "thru lanes" and was able to approach from the other side. The line to get in was over half a mile in the initial direction and about 12 cars when I looped to the other. Dense fog coming up to the Pit on the way home. Much worse than the wording in the forecast. Pretty darn toasty tonight--37.1/37 Sumner Ave. FTL during Brightnights season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Guys remember the monster winter in se mass (think it was) 04-05. Well did that feature a strong blocking or a anomalous epo or pna. Thanks (on mobile) Yes strong Greenland block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Be careful with that graphic. December and January had a +NAO until the big blizzard. It was king of a meh pattern yet we cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 went to the Le Salette x-mas lights festival tonight, pretty cool, kids had a blast.. at 9:30 on the dot the lights went off, pitch dark.. pretty crazy trying to find our car and all 11 kids we had with us. foggy on the way drive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This thread was psychotic today. The pattern isn't that bad at all. It's a good way to get storms in here and when you have moisture you can have snow. Last year was dry and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Be careful with that graphic. December and January had a +NAO until the big blizzard. It was king of a meh pattern yet we cashed in. Yea well it's not a snap shot but a seasonal mean. Tons of stormsNov 12-13, 2004 Dec 15, 2004 Dec 19-20, 2004 Dec 26-27, 2004 Jan 05-06, 2005 Jan 08, 2005 Jan 11-12, 2005 Jan 16-17, 2005 Jan 19-20, 2005 Jan 22-24, 2005 ... MAP ... Image Jan 26-27, 2005 Feb 03-04, 2005 Feb 10-11, 2005 Feb 13, 2005 Feb 21, 2005 Feb 24-25, 2005 Feb 28-Mar 01, 2005 Mar 06, 2005 Mar 08-09, 2005 Mar 11, 2005 Mar 12, 2005 Mar 23-34, 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Be careful with that graphic. December and January had a +NAO until the big blizzard. It was king of a meh pattern yet we cashed in. Unless you are at work you should be resting right now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Unless you are at work you should be resting right now. lol Going to soon. Long day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Lol the forum is in a rough spot. The current wx pattern is soo horrible we Have to focus on long range hope bc as pf says,"that's all we got", the annoying thing about concentrating on the 11-15 day period is ...for weeks at a time..it never seems to get closer...and when u actually start looking closer at 11-15 day trends there often aren't any, even when u see one for a couple days,it can go poof. So anyway let's hope we all get a 1-3 kfs special tue nite , to sedate everyones nerves. Agree 100% with this post. I kind of see 'duggs point. I am not saying I agree with him. It's that every time there is a monster storm on the model(s) 10-15 days out, it just vanishes like cruel trick or its all rain. The pattern sucks period, and it is what it is. I am not saying LR is unnessasary or stupid or crazy. On the other hand, there are some people on here even red taggers who seem to get really pissy about answering questions about snow threats and pattern changes. I am sure you must be tired of being questioned by some people who either don't know or people who are trying to learn by reading and looking at posts and model runs, myself included. I am not trying to start a battle between weenies/students/enthusiasts against the pros. There are some pros in here who either need to come off their high horse and realize they bust too. Btw, CoastalWx, and a few others (drawing a blank on the names,sorry)have been awesome at posting thoughts and posting with a caution of why it may not happen. A few others on the other hand....... just need a break as bad as others need snow to quit wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Agree 100% with this post. I kind of see 'duggs point. I am not saying I agree with him. It's that every time there is a monster storm on the model(s) 10-15 days out, it just vanishes like cruel trick or its all rain. The pattern sucks period, and it is what it is. I am not saying LR is unnessasary or stupid or crazy. On the other hand, there are some people on here even red taggers who seem to get really pissy about answering questions about snow threats and pattern changes. I am sure you must be tired of being questioned by some people who either don't know or people who are trying to learn by reading and looking at posts and model runs, myself included. I am not trying to start a battle between weenies/students/enthusiasts against the pros. There are some pros in here who either need to come off their high horse and realize they bust too. I don't see that in the SNE forum, even CTBlizz gets his questions answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Going to soon. Long day. Yup, unwinding is good. The Am Wx board probably never felt so relaxing. lol First few weeks napping when the baby naps can be a very healthy thing for your sanity. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yeah it's here too. If you go back and read some posts, you will see where agreeing to disagree or discussing in a civil manner so anyone can learn some objectives, they want people gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Did not take long today for some thread derailment, If things don't work out for whatever reasons over the next few weeks there will be some melt downs of epic proportion as some are starting to show some signs of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Merry Christmas on the 0z GFS........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Still looks good in the 11-15 day range................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yeah it's here too. If you go back and read some posts, you will see where agreeing to disagree or discussing in a civil manner so anyone can learn some objectives, they want people gone. if you are talking about that edbug guy, I think many people disagree with his comments not just red taggers. Anyway I'm printing the 372hr GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 If the 00z GFS verified verbatim through D16 it would be one of the more epic SNE meltdowns we've ever seen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Merry Cristmas on the 0z GFS........ saw that but even that runs it west of us! i know its the gfs and is west bias so hopefully the18 and 24th/25th give us 2 good storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 If the 00z GFS verified verbatim through D16 it would be one of the more epic SNE meltdowns we've ever seen lol well lets hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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