Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 The periods that were widely predicted to be the snowiest or heralding in winter have proven to be dry, mild, and/or rainy. The best snows of the year for most of SNE and SNY occurred before winter began and the only appreciatable snow for most of ENY and WMA went almost without notice. The board consensus reflects a poor handle on the chances for wintry precipitation in the long range. In fact, I bet it's statistically worse than climo considering the built in pro snow bias of most forecasters. where do you live ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The periods that were widely predicted to be the snowiest or heralding in winter have proven to be dry, mild, and/or rainy. The best snows of the year for most of SNE and SNY occurred before winter began and the only appreciatable snow for most of ENY and WMA went almost without notice. The board consensus reflects a poor handle on the chances for wintry precipitation in the long range. In fact, I bet it's statistically worse than climo considering the built in pro snow bias of most forecasters. Well there's your problem right there. On a serious note, I think those mets that offered their thoughts on the long range nicely laid out the developing pattern and possible failure modes. I can't recall any of them trumpeting anything that could be regarded as "snowiest" or "heralding in winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Well there's no harm in discussing the long range. It's only the weenies who get upset and fight about IMBY forecasts off a 15 day ensemble forecast. There's a really tiny chance of something this week but I think looking at the long range stuff offers much more hope lol. I agree. And yeah the long range stuff offers hope. But it's at least partly false hope. I guess I wish people acknowledged a little more of the inherent uncertain in the models. The long range is by definition unreliable. And I also wish people better understood that climate indices don't dictate weather. The NAO state doesn't force the models to start doing something. The modeled state of the atmosphere and the modeled state of the climate indices are caused by the same thing. There is a big time causation vs. correlation confusion on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 edduggs. melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 MJO http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mosaic/movies/moswirbbmjava.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 edduggs. melted. Who's next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I agree. And yeah the long range stuff offers hope. But it's at least partly false hope. I guess I wish people acknowledged a little more of the inherent uncertain in the models. The long range is by definition unreliable. And I also wish people better understood that climate indices don't dictate weather. The NAO state doesn't force the models to start doing something. The modeled state of the atmosphere and the modeled state of the climate indices are caused by the same thing. There is a big time causation vs. correlation confusion on this board. I'm not sure why you're using Kevin's posts as "board consensus". I'd say these threads... if you actually look at what the red taggers have posted... have laid out the potential pattern well. If I'm posting about a 15 day ensemble forecast I shouldn't need to include a paragraph disclaimer about the inherent uncertainty in that forecast. Would you like that for next time though??? As has been said time and time again by the mets in here is that even though the pattern looks to become more favorable nothing seems like a lock and we could certainly end up on the wrong side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Well there's your problem right there. On a serious note, I think those mets that offered their thoughts on the long range nicely laid out the developing pattern and possible failure modes. I can't recall any of them trumpeting anything that could be regarded as "snowiest" or "heralding in winter." Sure, lots of mets express their thoughts compellingly and articulately. I just believe there is very low skill in long range forecasting. And further, if you're looking for snow, as many of us are, this is not a fruitful place to look. That's just my opinion. It seems to me there are a lot more long range prognosticators around here than there are solid medium and short range synoptic forecasters. I think that's kind of unfortunate. But I have been around here a while, and I know they do come out and show their stuff when there's actually something to talk about in the short range... which there really isn't right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Sure, lots of mets express their thoughts compellingly and articulately. I just believe there is very low skill in long range forecasting. And further, if you're looking for snow, as many of us are, this is not a fruitful place to look. That's just my opinion. It seems to me there are a lot more long range prognosticators around here than there are solid medium and short range synoptic forecasters. I think that's kind of unfortunate. But I have been around here a while, and I know they do come out and show their stuff when there's actually something to talk about in the short range... which there really isn't right now. Then why don't you go away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 18z NAM is sweet for VT/NH with that second wave Monday night. Probably 3-6" verbatim after 1-2" early Monday AM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 18z NAM is sweet for VT/NH with that second wave Monday night. Probably 3-6" verbatim after 1-2" early Monday AM lol To bad its the Nam............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 To bad its the Nam............ Hahaha I know, right? Yeah even the Euro had 1-2" o the backside so I suppose it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 edduggs. melted. He will be missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I agree. And yeah the long range stuff offers hope. But it's at least partly false hope. I guess I wish people acknowledged a little more of the inherent uncertain in the models. The long range is by definition unreliable. And I also wish people better understood that climate indices don't dictate weather. The NAO state doesn't force the models to start doing something. The modeled state of the atmosphere and the modeled state of the climate indices are caused by the same thing. There is a big time causation vs. correlation confusion on this board. How many more "ifs" can we write everyday? I think you're misunderstanding the long range discussions too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 How many more "ifs" can we write everyday? I think you're misunderstanding the long range discussions too. I have a feeling we're going to have a follow up wave (Wednesday's wave) weenie solution in a coming op run that will never verify lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Hahaha I know, right? Yeah even the Euro had 1-2" o the backside so I suppose it's something to watch. I would question it here as it had some snow on the back end, Typically we don't do well in those anafrontal passages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I have a feeling we're going to have a follow up wave (Wednesday's wave) weenie solution in a coming op run. 15z SREF's hint at it for Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Sure, lots of mets express their thoughts compellingly and articulately. I just believe there is very low skill in long range forecasting. And further, if you're looking for snow, as many of us are, this is not a fruitful place to look. That's just my opinion. It seems to me there are a lot more long range prognosticators around here than there are solid medium and short range synoptic forecasters. I think that's kind of unfortunate. But I have been around here a while, and I know they do come out and show their stuff when there's actually something to talk about in the short range... which there really isn't right now. Horrible post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I would question it here as it had some snow on the back end, Typically we don't do well in those anafrontal passages Agreed. It'll be interesting to watch. I never usually put much stock in weenie afrontal solutions outside like 36 hours, especially on the NAM...only storm that kind of was afrontal was 3/7/11, but had legit wave running up the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I'm not sure why you're using Kevin's posts as "board consensus". I'd say these threads... if you actually look at what the red taggers have posted... have laid out the potential pattern well. If I'm posting about a 15 day ensemble forecast I shouldn't need to include a paragraph disclaimer about the inherent uncertainty in that forecast. Would you like that for next time though??? As has been said time and time again by the mets in here is that even though the pattern looks to become more favorable nothing seems like a lock and we could certainly end up on the wrong side of the boundary. I'll put it simple. Every "red tagger" (i.e., undersgrad degree in meteorology?) that I read who described the future pattern or provided a long range forecast over the past month predicted an improving winter pattern beginning by early December. In fact the "pattern" has gotten worse for wintry precipitation. The predicted improvement is always far enough out into the future so we can't know for sure that it's wrong. Eventually it will snow... it is winter after all. But nobody on here is particular good at seeing it coming beyond 10 days. It's been like this since the early 2000s on all the weather boards. People really think they can see the future. But it's just a lot more complicated that most people acknowledge. MJO, NAO, PNA, stratospheric temps... yes, they are all correlated somehow, but even if we could predict their state weeks from now, they don't tell the full story. Suggesting that we could end up on the wrong side of the "boundary" isn't exactly going out on a limb. If that's true, then the "pattern" wasn't ever very encouraging after all. The word "pattern" doesn't even really have much of a tangible meaning unless you're a climatologist. And gradient pattern means even less, considering the entire N Hemisphere is a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Then why don't you go away? Because I enjoy reading some poster's thoughts, and I also have something to offer. You might not have thought of everything, or at least thought of it the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Agreed. It'll be interesting to watch. I never usually put much stock in weenie afrontal solutions outside like 36 hours, especially on the NAM...only storm that kind of was afrontal was 3/7/11, but had legit wave running up the frontal boundary. That's what we would need to amplify the trough, Then yes we would have a chance i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I'll put it simple. Every "red tagger" (i.e., undersgrad degree in meteorology?) that I read who described the future pattern or provided a long range forecast over the past month predicted an improving winter pattern beginning by early December. In fact the "pattern" has gotten worse for wintry precipitation. The predicted improvement is always far enough out into the future so we can't know for sure that it's wrong. Eventually it will snow... it is winter after all. But nobody on here is particular good at seeing it coming beyond 10 days. It's been like this since the early 2000s on all the weather boards. People really think they can see the future. But it's just a lot more complicated that most people acknowledge. MJO, NAO, PNA, stratospheric temps... yes, they are all correlated somehow, but even if we could predict their state weeks from now, they don't tell the full story. Suggesting that we could end up on the wrong side of the "boundary" isn't exactly going out on a limb. If that's true, then the "pattern" wasn't ever very encouraging after all. The word "pattern" doesn't even really have much of a tangible meaning unless you're a climatologist. And gradient pattern means even less, considering the entire N Hemisphere is a gradient. Even worse than your last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I'll put it simple. Every "red tagger" (i.e., undersgrad degree in meteorology?) that I read who described the future pattern or provided a long range forecast over the past month predicted an improving winter pattern beginning by early December. In fact the "pattern" has gotten worse for wintry precipitation. The predicted improvement is always far enough out into the future so we can't know for sure that it's wrong. Eventually it will snow... it is winter after all. But nobody on here is particular good at seeing it coming beyond 10 days. It's been like this since the early 2000s on all the weather boards. People really think they can see the future. But it's just a lot more complicated that most people acknowledge. MJO, NAO, PNA, stratospheric temps... yes, they are all correlated somehow, but even if we could predict their state weeks from now, they don't tell the full story. Suggesting that we could end up on the wrong side of the "boundary" isn't exactly going out on a limb. If that's true, then the "pattern" wasn't ever very encouraging after all. The word "pattern" doesn't even really have much of a tangible meaning unless you're a climatologist. And gradient pattern means even less, considering the entire N Hemisphere is a gradient. LOL this is like a comedy routine with you. Some of us just like discussing potential. You must have some "issues" that manifest themselves in lame/rambling posts on a Saturday afternoon on a weather message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 That's what we would need to amplify the trough, Then yes we would have a chance i agree That little follow up s/w would have to thread the needle haha...I think SNE has a better shot a precip from that, albeit probably rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Sure, lots of mets express their thoughts compellingly and articulately. I just believe there is very low skill in long range forecasting. And further, if you're looking for snow, as many of us are, this is not a fruitful place to look. That's just my opinion. It seems to me there are a lot more long range prognosticators around here than there are solid medium and short range synoptic forecasters. I think that's kind of unfortunate. But I have been around here a while, and I know they do come out and show their stuff when there's actually something to talk about in the short range... which there really isn't right now. I guess I'm just confused then. You are posting in a pattern/banter thread while we await a short term wintry threat. I'm not sure what you were expecting to find beside discussion of 11-15 day progs and weenies being chucked in jest. And yes there is inherently lower skill in long range forecasting, but it is not lower than climo. Climo would say no snow in SNE in November, but I believe Tip (maybe others) were able to identify a favorable pattern beyond 6 days for some white stuff to fall early in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 That little follow up s/w would have to thread the needle haha...I think SNE has a better shot a precip from that, albeit probably rain Yeah, Its definitely would have to be timed right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I have a feeling we're going to have a follow up wave (Wednesday's wave) weenie solution in a coming op run that will never verify lol. Yup, since it's been in something like 25% of the ensemble members, it's bound to appear (at least in near miss fashion) in an op run in the next day or two. It could theoretically impact the mid-Atlantic as well. Possible but unlikely as you say. Over the past few days, various models have suggested snow for part of SNE between Tue and Thurs using three different shortwaves as the mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 LOL this is like a comedy routine with you. Some of us just like discussing potential. You must have some "issues" that manifest themselves in lame/rambling posts on a Saturday afternoon on a weather message board. No issue with discussing potential. I stated my belief that long range forecasting is of poor utility for snowfall forecasting. That's all. People are entitled to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 To bad its the Nam............ It has been on other random runs of various models...like a 1-3" type deal after the rain. I actually think it has some merit as an anafrontal setup. May not be much but ending with an inch or two to whiten things up again would be nice, especially after the 2-3" front end snow/sleet should get washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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