December Forecast Discussion

[JoMo]

I'll give up the whole winter if we have to wait for the stratospheric warming unicorn. Last year was torture trying to pull that thing out of the hat. Just never happened.

Yeah that seems to be the new 'thing'.

[griteater]

Temp surging again up on the pole at 30hPa today,going a good bit above normal.10Hpa level also starting to move upwards close to normal.Watching for the HLB possibility.

Like to see the zonal winds decrease now.

Enjoy your posts in here on the stratosphere. What is "HLB"?

We have some easterly anomalies ongoing now, but the strat vortex appears to re-exert itself over the next 10 days, with westerly anomalies increasing, though not super strong. From what I read on here and elsewhere, it sounds like the potential is there for a major warming and vortex disruption in late Dec / early Jan...but it's all cheap whiskey I guess until we see actual flakes falling from the sky.

[griteater]

I'll give up the whole winter if we have to wait for the stratospheric warming unicorn. Last year was torture trying to pull that thing out of the hat. Just never happened.

Funny, that's the direction I went in the last post

[packbacker]

I'll give up the whole winter if we have to wait for the stratospheric warming unicorn. Last year was torture trying to pull that thing out of the hat. Just never happened.

That's how we know this is going to be a bad winter, when we have to hope for some magical stratospheric warming to occur which nobody seems to fully understand. That's like the last ditch effort to save winter

[Cold Rain]

You gotta love how the strongest ridge in the world on the 240 Euro H5 is a 588 dm pig ridge centered squarely over Cuba.

[GaWx]

Folks,

In case DJFM all turn out to be cr*ppy (I'm not predicting that but it is is always possible if the -PDO really dominates), I thought I'd mention that KATL had a snowstorm on, believe it or not, 4/25/1910! Yes, it really happened. That period's DJFM were all pretty dry and DJF didn't have a +PDO. Also, only 0.3" of S/IP fell prior to 4/25. So, just in case the winter really stinks, please keep 4/25 in the back of your head before calling winter over.

[NC_hailstorm]

Enjoy your posts in here on the stratosphere. What is "HLB"?

We have some easterly anomalies ongoing now, but the strat vortex appears to re-exert itself over the next 10 days, with westerly anomalies increasing, though not super strong. From what I read on here and elsewhere, it sounds like the potential is there for a major warming and vortex disruption in late Dec / early Jan...but it's all cheap whiskey I guess until we see actual flakes falling from the sky.

High Latitude Blocking

I was thinking more of getting them strong enough to get a technical SSW where you get reversal at 60 north at 10hPa.This warming won't quite do it but another might.I'd say the strat is in better shape than last year though at this time the vortex is getting bounced around and it's much warmer.Flux is also forecasted to point poleward so that helps too.

[Mr Bob]

Folks,

In case DJFM all turn out to be cr*ppy (I'm not predicting that but it is is always possible if the -PDO really dominates), I thought I'd mention that KATL had a snowstorm on, believe it or not, 4/25/1910! Yes, it really happened. That period's DJFM were all pretty dry and DJF didn't have a +PDO. Also, only 0.3" of S/IP fell prior to 4/25. So, just in case the winter really stinks, please keep 4/25 in the back of your head before calling winter over.

Thanks, Larry!

[WilkesboroDude]

I'll give up the whole winter if we have to wait for the stratospheric warming unicorn. Last year was torture trying to pull that thing out of the hat. Just never happened.

We got it.

North Korea claims discovery of 'unicorn lair'

Today.com (blog)‎ - 7 hours ago

Anyway, here is some snippets from Raysweather.

"In fact, there's no significant cold in sight through mid-December.

There is some positive signs for wetter weather after the end of this forecast period, however."

[HKY_WX]

I think some may have jumped the gun a little. Nothing looks to lock in any cold over the CONUS until the 20th or so. At that point we have a true Greenland Block, at least according to the euro/gfs ensembles. Just ridging over the northern atlantic/greenland generally results in nothing more than some transient troughs. I would stay patient and enjoy the warm weather for a bit.

[HKY_WX]

And for those comparing this Dec to last, it looked nothing like this:

THE gfsENS are printing out negative 5 to 6 numbers, that's comparable to the 10/11 winter. This would be enough to plunge us into a prolonged cold pattern and disrupt what's going on around the poles(PV).

[WilkesboroDude]

The sun angle starts getting higher again after December 21st.

[SnowNiner]

The sun angle starts getting higher again after December 21st.

Sorry, that was funny.

[eyewall]

I think some may have jumped the gun a little. Nothing looks to lock in any cold over the CONUS until the 20th or so. At that point we have a true Greenland Block, at least according to the euro/gfs ensembles. Just ridging over the northern atlantic/greenland generally results in nothing more than some transient troughs. I would stay patient and enjoy the warm weather for a bit.

I don't think anyone has any patience after last year. The elephant in the room is the fear of 2 consecutive years without winter.

[Bevo]

And for those comparing this Dec to last, it looked nothing like this:

THE gfsENS are printing out negative 5 to 6 numbers, that's comparable to the 10/11 winter. This would be enough to plunge us into a prolonged cold pattern and disrupt what's going on around the poles(PV).

This goes along with my earlier point - different team on the field right now.

The sun angle starts getting higher again after December 21st.

And yes - that actually is funny.

[JoshM]

Well the end of the world is the 21st and he's worried about the sun angle

[DixieBlizzard]

Well the end of the world is the 21st and he's worried about the sun angle

Well, if the new North Pole becomes centered in Kentucky, we'll all be in business....."in the next life" anyway.

[packbacker]

I don't think anyone has any patience after last year. The elephant in the room is the fear of 2 consecutive years without winter.

What about 3 consecutive...we could be due for a multi-year shutout if things continue next year, I need to dig up some numbers on central NC's longest drought with snowfall under say 2".

[GaWx]

Folks,

The NOAA Nov. 2012 averaged PDO was just released and was -0.60 vs. -1.13 in Oct. My eyeballing tells me that the NOAA # is currently probably a bit lower than that....say, ~-.75 to perhaps as low as ~-1.00.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

Based on the pattern when comparing these two tables, I expect the U of Washington # for Nov. to be higher than -0.60...maybe as high as ~-0.40.

I honestly expected a more negative # than -0.60. This may bode well for the winter if we could finally shake off the stubborn -PNA as -0.60 is a pretty modest -PDO, especially for the NOAA table.

**EDITED SEVERAL TIMES**

[packbacker]

Folks,

The NOAA Nov. 2012 averaged PDO was just released and was -0.60 vs. -1.13 in Oct. My eyeballing tells me that the NOAA # is currently probably a bit lower than that....say, ~-.75 to perhaps as low as ~-1.00.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

Based on the pattern when comparing these two tables, I expect the U of Washington # for Nov. to be higher than -0.60...maybe as high as ~-0.40.

I honestly expected a more negative # than -0.60. This may bode well for the winter if we could finally shake off the stubborn -PNA as -0.60 is a pretty modest -PDO, especially for the NOAA table.

**EDITED SEVERAL TIMES**

Is there not any models that predict the PDO? I couldn't findy any. It would be nice if the PDO approached 0.

[GaWx]

Is there not any models that predict the PDO? I couldn't findy any. It would be nice if the PDO approached 0.

I'm not aware of any predicting an actual #. There are models that predict SST anomaly patterns, however, which means they implicitly predict the PDO.

[nchighcountrywx]

PDO west of Alaska appears to have won out and will likely rule the roost this winter. We have witnessed the decimation of many long term winter forecasts right before us over the past few weeks with this pattern change.

This post in this thread appears to be spot on.

Certainly not a cold lock in the East this winter, but expect much variability with primary storm track north of us in Ohio valley dragging down bouts of cold air on the backside. Not the best of NC winters but certainly not the train wreck of last year.

[Bevo]

PDO west of Alaska appears to have won out and will likely rule the roost this winter. We have witnessed the decimation of many long term winter forecasts right before us over the past few weeks with this pattern change.

This post in this thread appears to be spot on.

http://www.americanw...01#entry1895501

Certainly not a cold lock in the East this winter, but expect much variability with primary storm track north of us in Ohio valley dragging down bouts of cold air on the backside. Not the best of NC winters but certainly not the train wreck of last year.

At least you left room for error and/or improvement. I don't even necessarily disagree - but it's certainly bold to proclaim long term winter forecasts a bust at this point. Especially considering the set up isn't what it was last year. Bold may not even be the right word...

Granted, we are in two very different locations, and I can understand that a winter in the high country will be judged differently than one here in upstate SC.

[HKY_WX]

If you had access to some of the LR euro maps I saw today, you wouldn't be freaking out. Trust me on that one lol.

[weatherlover]

Care to elaborate just a lil on that...lol u have my interest peeked

[burgertime]

Care to elaborate just a lil on that...lol u have my interest peeked

He elaborated earlier. -NAO and +PNA with blocking around the 20th of December and after.

[nchighcountrywx]

If you had access to some of the LR euro maps I saw today, you wouldn't be freaking out. Trust me on that one lol.

400 to 432 looks good for our next arctic intrusion.....good timing for days before Christmas

[Cold Rain]

I don't think anyone has any patience after last year. The elephant in the room is the fear of 2 consecutive years without winter.

What about 3 consecutive...we could be due for a multi-year shutout if things continue next year, I need to dig up some numbers on central NC's longest drought with snowfall under say 2".

I have patience. You guys worry too much. And all this worrying about the -PDO is a little overdone too, in my opinion. The PDO state operates on a multi-decadal cycle. So it's likely to be negative for a while. But there's no clear evidence that it's going to stay so far in the tank this year that we get another skunk. As has already been said many times already, the players on the field are not of the same variety as last year. So unless you guys can point out some reason to believe that we're in some sort of multi-year warm winter twilight zone kinda thing, then I don't see any logical reason to feel like there won't be opportunities for cold and snow this winter.

[FoothillsNC]

As for PDO forecasting, it can't be done until its flipped positions, atleast thats the study I read recently. It is roughly a 30 year cycle but we really don't have enough in the bank to say even that, since it's so new. Like the NAO, it takes spikes, but right now is negative. And slightly increasing toward positive but has a ways to go. You can see it clearly on SST maps. The readings last few years:

2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21

2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79

2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93

Also, a lot of the years 1950 through 1980 or so were negative PDO and had -NAO thanks to that 30 year cycle or so. There's some who believe we could be in for a period like that 30 year period roughly which is pretty good for Winters in the East and MidSouth atleast.

PDO west of Alaska appears to have won out and will likely rule the roost this winter. We have witnessed the decimation of many long term winter forecasts right before us over the past few weeks with this pattern change.

This post in this thread appears to be spot on.

http://www.americanw...01#entry1895501

Certainly not a cold lock in the East this winter, but expect much variability with primary storm track north of us in Ohio valley dragging down bouts of cold air on the backside. Not the best of NC winters but certainly not the train wreck of last year.

A little dramatic and premature isn't it? It's not even Winter yet, technically?

[burgertime]

A little dramatic and premature isn't it? It's not even Winter yet, technically?

The hilarious part is that the person he agrees with basically said this would be a normal winter for the east with above average snowfall...not sure how that decimates winter forecasts.