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December Mid-Long Range Discussion


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at least .5 and probably .6 at DCA, but I guess silly to worry about QPF right now...lol

no it's not!!!

our seemingly first legit shot at some nice snow (all the models have it and the pattern is right), I'm looking for qpf baby!

I might have to break down and order Accuwx Pro for a month or two just for Euro qpf if nothing else....should I?

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I'll probably be eating every last one of these words but...after the maybe notso lame chill storm parks itself in the martimes the pattern at 500 starts to really look good. You have the pv asserting itself along with a (finally) recognizable and relatively stable +pna ridge. Pretty cold look. There is an increasing chance for a clipper event after the late week storm as well.

I normally like to post clips of maps to show what I'm talking about but I'm too lazy right now. The short version is that d9+ on both the euro and gfs should have us jumping for joy...at least for now...preparing to eat words in 6 days...

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The D+11 mean pattern from last night still looked good so I'm not surprised. It's been pretty consistent in liking the pattern into early January. Now all we need is to get a storm or two. I'm starting to like the Dec 29-30 event.

It has been trending our way for 24-48 hours now....too bad there is still 6 days to screw us over...2-4" would make me happy...even 1-2" would

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It's kind of comical looking through all the panels and seeing a pretty decent look in the lr. But then you dig in and see low heights over the pole and greenland and think, uh oh.

This winter definitely appears it may be exclusive pac driven. We lose the -ao/nao and have our best chance for snow and cold. LOL. Oh the irony. But it's great too because getting a productive period with a flip to a +ao/nao is making up for lost time. HL blocking will come back. This looks to be the relaxing period but the pac is trumping it.

Flow is nice. First tomorrow's storm parks itself in the 50-50 spot for the weekend storm and we still have a great chance at snow. Then the weekend storm replaces the ex-chill storm. Virtually no -nao at all but an active pattern with nice spacing between storms. The ridge out west is sticking a nice area of blocking hp in central canada and the 50-50 finishes the job. If you take everything as is, storm track looks to stay favorable for quite some time. All this in the face of a less than ideal nao and ao. We'll see how it shakes out because like always...we live in the ma and snow hates us.

Another thing that's interesting is the closed ull on both the gfs and euro that tracks from socal down the baha peninsula. It then tracks through mexico. With the ridge on top of it and the trough in the east, any energy that gets ejected by it could potentially get pulled up from the gulf. This is very speculative but these clips illustrate my point pretty well:

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Another thing that's interesting is the closed ull on both the gfs and euro that tracks from socal down the baha peninsula. It then tracks through mexico. With the ridge on top of it and the trough in the east, any energy that gets ejected by it could potentially get pulled up from the gulf. This is very speculative but these clips illustrate my point pretty well:

I have been keeping an eye on that feature for a few days now with the Euro and the GFS. Run to run solutions on how it handles it have been all over the place. Some have even shown that feature being ejected fairly quickly but then being replaced by another fairly quickly as well. But as you, I like the look and have to wonder with the split flow and energy being ejected whether we may have several snow opportunities in the next couple of weeks. The one thing about the setup though is I would think that we are more likely to see a storm sneak up on us then have something to track for 7-10 days on the models.

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GFS has the Day 9 HM storm. No other model kicks out the southern stream though.

the days and tracks will change....all one can say and we have been saying is that the period from 12/31 to 1/10 has the potential for a winter storm(s) or may have none...why do people get focused on one storm 10 days away?

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the days and tracks will change....all one can say and we have been saying is that the period from 12/31 to 1/10 has the potential for a winter storm(s) or may have none...why do people get focused on one storm 10 days away?

I think if the 12/29 storm can bomb out into the Maritimes like most models show, then and there will be a good window from 1/3 to 1/7 or so. The NAO won't be super cooperative but it doesn't look awful either. The PNA will finally be getting into a helpful state and I think that will be our best shot. If we can just get a SW to develop a surface low down over the gulf during that period...where the flow should be out of the NW with good cold established and a ridge in the west...we have a shot at something real and more then just some fluke or WAA stuff.

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