Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Based on what everbody in amwx is talking about I would think the odds favor more than a couple inches but I won't be pissed. I had basically nothing last year. Not even much cold or much to track. We ave 2 very real events to track and potentially a pretty nice cold shot coming down the road. We should be thrilled regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Based on what everbody in amwx is talking about I would think the odds favor more than a couple inches but I won't be pissed. I had basically nothing last year. Not even much cold or much to track. We ave 2 very real events to track and potentially a pretty nice cold shot coming down the road. We should be thrilled regardless. Me too Bob. Just happy to have something to talk about. As for the mid week storm, I think it's likely a sig storm, but whether that's snow or freezing rain, I wouldn't say. I think the low level cold will be there, at least that's what it looks like. If we were to have snow on Christmas eve, I just think that would be awesome, regardless of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Are people going to be pissed if we emerge from this pattern in 2 weeks and we only have a couple inches to show from it? I won't. I won't be disappointed. Long-term Dec avg here is 4.9" and seasonal avg is 6.2" through 12/31. Anything toward that total will be appreciated. It always seems like a steep climb to get to the 26.1" climo calls for. But in 6 winters here, I've averaged 26.3" Did it the hard way though, with three of those winters being 5.1," 8.5" and 15.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 3.5" is an average December at IAD I was close, but if people are going to be upset cuz they only got 2" then something is wrong with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I was close, but if people are going to be upset cuz they only got 2" then something is wrong with them. 2 inches would be a disaster. were in prime time climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 2 inches would be a disaster. were in prime time climo Feb is prime time climo for us. 2" is better than last Dec. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 2 inches would be a disaster. were in prime time climo Just wonderin...what is the Ji non-disaster amount and what is considered passable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 HPC is very south. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif Not that it shows, but seems to infer a jump near HAT or ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 HPC is very south. http://www.hpc.ncep....t_wbg_conus.gif Not that it shows, but seems to infer a jump near HAT or ILM. seems ambitious .. must be leaning gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 seems ambitious .. must be leaning gfs? Don't they always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Don't they always? I don't look at their stuff that often these days. I thought even NOAA humped the Euro these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS has the 12/29 Euro storm.....maybe that will end up being our 1st snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 man I get qpf shafted for DEC 26-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS has the 12/29 Euro storm.....maybe that will end up being our 1st snow event so we have 12/24, 12/26, 12/29, 1/1 (which is an 8-12" monster on the GFS), 1/5 to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 so we have 12/24, 12/26, 12/29, 1/1 (which is an 8-12" monster on the GFS), 1/5 to track we need our active periods to be really active if we get any sort of break in jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 we need our active periods to be really active if we get any sort of break in jan. I don't expect much, but if we can somehow come out of the next 2 weeks with a few wintry events I'll be happy....it would be nice to get 5-8" area wide before we thaw, but we could also strike out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't expect much, but if we can somehow come out of the next 2 weeks with a few wintry events I'll be happy....it would be nice to get 5-8" area wide before we thaw, but we could also strike out the early jan storm is booked and words are marked. #rockinjanuary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 why would we thaw. we thawed all of December already. gfs says we look like Siberia after 1-1 2013 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'd be sorta shocked if that storm was great given how it's been a snowstorm every run of the GFS for like 3 days at this range but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 the early jan storm is booked and words are marked. #rockinjanuary ...I think it too early to get date specific with 12/29-1/2 period...maybe it is one event...maybe 2 separate events...but looks good for something to happen that weekend into early week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 gfs below zero f in early Jan with 15 inches of snow on the grounds. cwg fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Or we could never technically thaw right? This is likely to be an -ao dominated winter. Even periods of relaxation there can be offset by other factors. It's really just a hunch and nobody should read into it more than a hunch but I wonder if we are normal or chilly for an extended period. Some of the large scale nh circulation features are changing. Both Russia and alaska are set to warm. That giant pool of cold air doesn't vanish. It moves and moderates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 -6 f on Jan 3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ...I think it too early to get date specific with 12/29-1/2 period...maybe it is one event...maybe 2 separate events...but looks good for something to happen that weekend into early week Yeah the period after the Boxing Day storm looks pretty interesting overall. Models have been consistent that we will be colder with a potentially more conducive set of tracks at least. Climo ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Or we could never technically thaw right? This is likely to be an -ao dominated winter. Even periods of relaxation there can be offset by other factors. It's really just a hunch and nobody should read into it more than a hunch but I wonder if we are normal or chilly for an extended period. Some of the large scale nh circulation features are changing. Both Russia and alaska are set to warm. That giant pool of cold air doesn't vanish. It moves and moderates. true...at least we have stuff to track for a while now....GFS 12/29 threat looks very much like the last 2 euro runs...weak and disorganized....but it helped set up the new years monster....I think all we can say is there is a threat (s) 12/28 - 1/3...after that I don't know, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You're so predictable, lol. it's cool that he never breaks character tho. the cant wait for 18z comment made me lol. jay hatem weather must be run by someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Or we could never technically thaw right? This is likely to be an -ao dominated winter. Even periods of relaxation there can be offset by other factors. It's really just a hunch and nobody should read into it more than a hunch but I wonder if we are normal or chilly for an extended period. Some of the large scale nh circulation features are changing. Both Russia and alaska are set to warm. That giant pool of cold air doesn't vanish. It moves and moderates. I agree hate to bring up that model, but the CFS2 has been really, really good so far this winter once we're within 45 days and it is looking impressive; and it's supported to a great degree by other long range models and medium range models in short, if it can be as good predicting cold as it has been predicting the warmth of DEC, this will end up a decent winter this weenie is hoping it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The ggem goes crazy with the dec 26 storm wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Perhaps we are transitioning from warm and wet cold and dry warm and wet cold and dry to weak wave and cold to coastal bomb and colder, weak wave and cool coastal bomb and colder... Who knows with all these short waves what is going to come next. All I can say at this point is that we are going to have an extremely active storm track in the best climo period of the year. Couldn't ask for much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I expect a Feb 2007 track though. These rarely trend SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.