usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Wes, Nice CWG writeup, by the way (post-Christmas). I begin a week of 7 mids starting tonight on the winter weather desk. Should be interesting to see how this 12/26-27 event will pan out. Either way, regardless of the track, looks like the workload will pick up after the weekend! What desk will you be on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hr 162 984 of over south-central pa. All of i95 is warm big Ohio valley snow storm on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro is a strong Apps runner...most of the area is all rain....it never jumps either...just barrels right through us...big snowstorm for Central to Eastern OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 discussion in NE thread suggests to me it is an inland runner Right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro hates us but its probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not what we want, but still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro is a strong Apps runner...most of the area is all rain....it never jumps either...just barrels right through us...big snowstorm for Central to Eastern OH That's not surprising and I think something like that is the most likely scenario but is certainly is way east of yesterday. I'm actually getting more interested in the overall pattern after this storm. do we see any ice before the the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Did it come any further east than the previous run? no...it's stronger and further west (not by much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Not what we want, but still time. If we can get the upper low to roll to the maritimes for the low coming into the southwest maybe it can set up something towards new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 That's not surprising and I think something like that is the most likely scenario but is certainly is way east of yesterday. I'm actually getting more interested in the overall pattern after this storm. do we see any ice before the the rain? no...maybe some wraparound for far far western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't have much to say except that the super ensemble mean for D+8 is the nicest so far by far. The pattern is shown has 3 analogs that produced a 4 inch storm within 3 days of the centered mean, dec 1966, Dec 2009, Jan 1, 2001. It also had another that fell witin 5 days. That big of storm is so limo unusual that having 3 analog dates clustered that closely suggests that the pattern finally is one that is above average for snowfall. The D+11 also isn't that different. I looked for the D+11 Centered mean from Dec 2009 I know I posted it on Eastern back in the day but must have deleted it and then eastern lost all the graphics for the dec thread. Anyway, here's the 500, <snip> I still suspect that the coming storm post christmas will be mostly rain but not with nearly as much confidence as earlier. The pattern on the superens mean is a pretty good one through the new year. Of course the models have been all over the place so it would be nice to see the pattern hold for a few days before going completely ga ga on it. People aren't patient. We usually step down into a better pattern. I never give longer range much time but I've consistently liked what we're seeing in the period after next week's storm. Not to mention climo is more in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That's not surprising and I think something like that is the most likely scenario but is certainly is way east of yesterday. I'm actually getting more interested in the overall pattern after this storm. do we see any ice before the the rain? I'm in the coastal plain, like you; and while I'm entertained by the upcoming event for a possible changeover, I'm also more interested in the pattern beyond this storm. The setup into the New Year looks good for a widespread accumulating snowfall. My AAM wave timings suggested a snow event later than what's being modeled (Jan 4-9) but I suppose the PNA could get going sooner and bring something much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 People aren't patient. We usually step down into a better pattern. I never give longer range much time but I've consistently liked what we're seeing in the period after next week's storm. Not to mention climo is more in our favor. I'm with you and think people usually rush pattern changes, that's why even with the D+8 and 11 looking pretty good I made the caveat about not being yet ready to go ga ga especially with the models having so much trouble with the various shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Which storm are we talking about here, the Christmas or early January storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z Euro snow map looks pretty similar to 0z, and actually sorta like the GFS. Nothing really in the cities but quick steps up into the mtns. W/NW burbs with a bit.. much more in elevation.. even as close as HGR tho I'm dubious of that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z Euro snow map looks pretty similar to 0z, and actually sorta like the GFS. Nothing really in the cities but quick steps up into the mtns. W/NW burbs with a bit.. much more in elevation.. even as close as HGR tho I'm dubious of that for now. Behind the low would be really good upslope stuff as the trajectories off the lakes would be pretty good for the Jon Jon's of the world. Not sot good for guys in the downslope areas east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Which storm are we talking about here, the Christmas or early January storm? I thinkt he consensus is after the boxer day storm which probably will be rain for the i95 guys in the DC to Phl areas. The pattern on the longer range models D+11 etc looks like a pretty good one but that's still way out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Behind the low would be really good upslope stuff as the trajectories off the lakes would be pretty good for the Jon Jon's of the world. Not sot good for guys in the downslope areas east of the mountains. Yeah that's a good pt. I didn't even look that closely to see what was from the low itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 10 day looks nice...Big block over the Davis straits.....The ridge in the west is too far west but that can easily be adjusted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I was planning on going away for a few days after Christmas if there's decent snow w/in 150 miles of BWI, I'm chasing I'm pretty familiar with Wilkes Barre area so if we don't see anything, I'm hoping they do 'cause I'm going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 and today's run of the CFS2 says "hello January" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I was planning on going away for a few days after Christmas if there's decent snow w/in 150 miles of BWI, I'm chasing I'm pretty familiar with Wilkes Barre area so if we don't see anything, I'm hoping they do 'cause I'm going Go to Oakland, MD, they will probably be rain for the storm but post storm probably will be in winter storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 New event. High Wind Watch from 12/22/2012 6:00 AM to 6:00 PM EST. More information. EDIT: Blizzard warnings for western MD and West Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Go to Oakland, MD, they will probably be rain for the storm but post storm probably will be in winter storm warnings. Wes, I was thinking that too but thought it being Christmas week, it would be tough to get a room w/o paying through the nose [plus, knowing my wife, she'd want to strangle me if we're stuck in a hotel room for 2 days due to the heavy snow.....me? I'd be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Pretty hard to not see the difference between today's 12z run and yesterdays. I also have a hard time seeing a low in northern Ga/northern Al going up the west side of the Apps. I know anything can happen, but is that common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Pretty hard to not see the difference between today's 12z run and yesterdays. I also have a hard time seeing a low in northern Ga/northern Al going up the west side of the Apps. I know anything can happen, but is that common? It used to be relatively common... not so much in the past quarter century. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ens mean looks a bit warmer than last night.. track fairly similar. Snow totals down but still more in cities than other models .. 1-2" hugs 95 on either side and then 2-3" for Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Its also about 12 hours quicker, noticeably more amped at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ens mean looks a bit warmer than last night.. track fairly similar. Snow totals down but still more in cities than other models .. 1-2" hugs 95 on either side and then 2-3" for Leesburg. Is it a transfer or does it ride the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro ens mean looks a bit warmer than last night.. track fairly similar. Snow totals down but still more in cities than other models .. 1-2" hugs 95 on either side and then 2-3" for Leesburg. Are you talking about after Christmas? If so, what are you seeing for Christmas eve? The wunder maps make it look like we have precip with 2m and 850s just above freezing (in my area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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