usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 18Z GFS still has the second storm. It looks pretty nice on this run, actually. except it has an inverted trough back towards the great lakes where there is a monster closed low, those type systems almost alwasy end up west of the initial forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Early Jan storm right where we want it Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Cuba? We will be like their Indiana for the that one. Come on you know we only want bullseyes at d14 and not 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 except it has an inverted trough back towards the great lakes where there is a monster closed low, those type systems almost alwasy end up west of the initial forecast. Weenie smasher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 except it has an inverted trough back towards the great lakes where there is a monster closed low, those type systems almost alwasy end up west of the initial forecast. Well that's a downer. Hopefully we can manage a better setup sometime in early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well that's a downer. Hopefully we can manage a better setup sometime in early Jan. I just don't like that particular deterministic model 500h. It could be wrong and we could still get a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I just don't like that particular deterministic model 500h. It could be wrong and we could still get a wave. The crappy part is you are almost never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 the event on 12/29 still looks like a 1-3"snow event Edit...I see Wes likes the Euro solution which is warm and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 except it has an inverted trough back towards the great lakes where there is a monster closed low, those type systems almost alwasy end up west of the initial forecast. Well now we know not to waste time on it. Next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 the event on 12/29 still looks like a 1-3"snow event Need to keep it weak as the 500 looks too much like the old euro did when it had the storm a day or so ago. I don't like having a vortex back towards the lakes. Still it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 the event on 12/29 still looks like a 1-3"snow event Edit...I see Wes likes the Euro solution which is warm and north Can we kill the first one first before we kill the 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Can we kill the first one first before we kill the 2nd Christmas should have been January 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Need to keep it weak as the 500 looks too much like the old euro did when it had the storm a day or so ago. I don't like having a vortex back towards the lakes. Still it's something to watch. just noticed the sfc low up in the great lakes...that is an old Mitchnick/zwyts rule that we probably adopted from you...I don't remember....but we always put the kabosh on a storm where there is another sfc low up in the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 just noticed the sfc low up in the great lakes...that is an old Mitchnick/zwyts rule that we probably adopted from you...I don't remember....but we always put the kabosh on a storm where there is another sfc low up in the lakes I get a little over excited last night . Good chance we have no snow during holiday period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 the event on 12/29 still looks like a 1-3"snow event Edit...I see Wes likes the Euro solution which is warm and north Can we kill the first one first before we kill the 2nd lol, hopefully, you don't mean me, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 I get a little over excited last night . Good chance we have no snow during holiday period how bout 1/5-1/10 before maybe the pattern breaks?....we got back to back events in 1997 before we got warm again....we just need a weak wave to dump 1-3" before it changes over or shuts off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 the event on 12/29 still looks like a 1-3"snow event Edit...I see Wes likes the Euro solution which is warm and north lol, hopefully, you don't mean me, do you? No man. I love you. Redskin fan...wizards fan...weather genius and haven't busted since feb 14 2007 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 how bout 1/5-1/10 before maybe the pattern breaks?....we got back to back events in 1997 before we got warm again....we just need a weak wave to dump 1-3" before it changes over or shuts off Pattern break? We're not even in a new pattern yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 how bout 1/5-1/10 before maybe the pattern breaks?....we got back to back events in 1997 before we got warm again....we just need a weak wave to dump 1-3" before it changes over or shuts off I'm certainly not advocating that we can't get something in the next 10 days. The pattern is better than its' been though i worry some about the northern stream dominating how that the pna is positive sort of like happens during a nina but that may be pessimistic nature. Sounds like the MJO or some other type of tropical forcing may keep some southern stream energy going. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No man. I love you. Redskin fan...wizards fan...weather genius and haven't busted since feb 14 2007 storm You forgot the Boxing day fiasco a few years ago when I was metaphorically castrated by CWG weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I normally don't go out more the 5 days on model surfing. I can't help it but the 1st week of January looks very interesting to me. I am sure I am not the only one thinking the same thing. So far at that time period it's showing -AO/-NAO/+PNA and that is the best I have seen in along time. I still have a sour taste in my mouth after last year. Happy Holidays everyone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 how bout 1/5-1/10 before maybe the pattern breaks?....we got back to back events in 1997 before we got warm again....we just need a weak wave to dump 1-3" before it changes over or shuts off That sounds really pessimistic to me. We are not even in a good pattern yet and I hope when one does develop it lasts more then 5 days and delivers more then 1-3". Keep in mind if that we're to occur and we go into another raging -Pna pattern it could be feb before things reload and then those panicking might be justified as we could be facing back to back historically bad snowfall years. It could happen but you say it like its no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 probably shouldnt start the dec 29 thread yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 probably shouldnt start the dec 29 thread yet is their a Jan 2 event....or is that gone too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 is their a Jan 2 event....or is that gone too? 1/2-3 event is still there. Suppressed but there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 is their a Jan 2 event....or is that gone too? right where we want it. don't listen to wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 whats up with the epic heat wave at end of GFS 384? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 whats up with the epic heat wave at end of GFS 384? early jan storm or bust.. next window in feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 early jan storm or bust.. next window in feb. Lol....last night we were in the freezer.... And tonight shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm confused ...euro has a warm rain on dec 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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