Hitman Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Well I'm talking synoptic...not mesoscale upslope. I think where most people in the subforum live, the next 2 synoptic events (tomorrow and Fri) look messy or rainy. The northern half of Maine obviously is looking very snow with this next system and they may be snowy in Aroostook in the 2nd as well. But yeah, the Greens should score this weekend on the backside of that low. I likey. just in time for my vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Zone forecast looks semi-interesting here for the next 48 hours... Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain with total snow and sleet of 2-4" by Wednesday morning from backside snow showers? Tonight: Cloudy. A chance of sleet or a slight chance of freezing rain and snow until midnight...then sleet likely with pockets of snow and freezing rain after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation a dusting to 1 inch. Ice accumulation around a trace. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Tuesday: Sleet in the morning. Rain. Sleet accumulation a dusting to 1 inch. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds. Gusts up to 30 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Tuesday Night: Snow showers. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wednesday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 I likey. just in time for my vacation. I posted this in the White X-mas thread for SNE/Berkshires but it applies up here and would certainly be a sizeable upslope dump. As usual, upper level lows moving overhead with moisture and NW flow is historically very favorable for the Green Mtn ski resorts. Fantasy land models about 4-5 days out have a pretty good set-up... The 12z GFS has a pretty good prolonged event this weekend so that would be welcomed. ULL overhead and good SFC low placement. As we know, the QPF will always be under-done on these larger grid models in these set-ups.. but the trace model QPF is a big signal for that. And his H85 set up would be great for the upslope region of SNE... with 40-60kts ripping CAA over Lake Ontario and down the Mohawk Valley into the upslope zone east of ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 This event would definitely come in lower if you measured it all on one fell swoop – especially with some granular flakes and some sleet pellets that fell on top of previous snow. The snow depth would have been in the 4 to 4.5-inch range if I simply did one check this morning. Six-hour intervals make a nice routine, and I’d like to do it all the time for consistency (well, probably not the overnight ones), but I’m typically on a 12-hour collection cycle (6:00 A.M. and 6:00 P.M.) on weekdays due to work and sleep. That’s usually pretty good though, and if the storm is big enough, cancellations and delays help to open up schedules for getting toward the 6-hour cycle – and bigger events provide a little more inspiration for potentially catching that overnight snowboard clearing. For this event I just happened to be grading exams late into the night last night, so being up, there was no way I was going to skip the midnight collection with the unsure nature of what was going to be coming in the morning. I’ve also been home this morning doing the same thing, so it let me get in a noontime collection. Doing the intermediate collections is certainly going to bias accumulations high relative to once a day collection places, but fortunately as adk has indicated in the past, the liquid equivalent is the big equalizer anyway – that’s independent of fluff factor and collection frequency. I really like getting all these intermediate snow densities through the storm though, you can really get a sense for what is going into the various layers in the snowpack. Oh don't get me wrong, I absolutely love your 6-hourly updates with liquid equivalent and all. It can usually give me an idea of what the liquid is here, too, judging by the snowfall. I've never really gotten into doing liquid equivalents so its fun to see. I was just musing looking at the snow depths around the area, and also what I've got in the backyard here in Stowe. I just happened to notice it when I saw the 5.3" storm total and 4" snow depth... and was surprised that this storm had so much settling because its dense stuff. Usually its the fluffy storms that settle (ie 18" total over 36 hours but depth never gets over 12") out throughout the event... or they reach a certain point where it settles at the same rate as it falls so you don't see any increase in depth. Pretty sizeable QPF though when most models were showing 0.1-0.2" and all CoCoRAHS stations in the area came in with a solid 0.4"-0.5"....that was a nice bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 I guess you gotta define "us." The system of next week, were it to roll in exactly as modeled would be a major dump for elevations above 2500 feet along the green spine. Big fat wet stacked lows drifting over the greens and spinning to our n/e makes big time snows. I would assume anyone speaking regionally like that is talking about civilized areas where we live... like BTV doesn't look that good going forward for snow. Maybe Borderwx, myself, J.Spin have some chances with upslope as long as its cold enough in the towns adjacent to the spine, but for the majority of the board, I agree it looks a little bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GYX afternoon forecast has 2-4" overnight for the foothills (more in mts, less/nil for closer to saltwater) then ZR tomorrow morning, changing to RA as temps warm. Very messy, and the Fri storm looks only to add to the mess, though by tomorrow's changeover MBY would have 6-9" of armor-plated snow, so we should remain white, or at least gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 31.2F with freezing drizzle. Stairs starting to become an ice rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GYX afternoon forecast has 2-4" overnight for the foothills (more in mts, less/nil for closer to saltwater) then ZR tomorrow morning, changing to RA as temps warm. Very messy, and the Fri storm looks only to add to the mess, though by tomorrow's changeover MBY would have 6-9" of armor-plated snow, so we should remain white, or at least gray. My 5" is going to go poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Another quality report from the Mansfield Co-Op... 1.5" out of 0.34" of liquid... to be fair, they didn't have a report yesterday afternoon, but I had almost exactly 3" after 4pm yesterday on both of the snow boards, and to me that fits with the 0.34" of liquid the Co-Op reported. But apparently only 1.5" of snow actually fell in the rain gauge. DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 527 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.34 24 12 24 1.5 9 That inch and a half skied really nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Pf I picture u goin up there and destroyn their snow gauge so the useless inaccurate snow reports they give will stop. Lol.I'm hoping the secondary can pull a rabit out of its hat tomm for wildcat ski area. I think it will be close there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 30.6F ZR/ZL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 30.6F ZR/ZL It is nasty out there right now. I barely could make the 100 yard walk to pick up dinner. Not looking forward to the commute into work tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Must be downslope warming on SSE flow on the western slopes of the Greens... the west side of the spine is one of the warmest spots in New England right now. Pretty cool how topography and wind flow really dictates the weather here in NNE. However, those same warm spots right now stand to clean up this weekend with the potential ULL and upslope combo. Been alternating between 32-33F here at home...the slow drip has started off the roof. I see MVL ASOS is showing 35F a few miles away, but not nearly that warm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0.4" during the day today. It looked like some melting/settling occurred. Gives me a storm total of 4.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The Plymouth walkways are a disaster. 1" of snow with ZR on too. Just slid to dinner and barely made the uphill track back alive lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 last weekend i thought (n.conway area) would be a good area to pick for a nice snowy time.....lol or at least a short ride to one (i.e wildcat) w elevation. now barring a miracle that didn't work out. since this is pretty much in now cast time frame and i'm staying in the area i still give somewhat of a crap as to what happens. Interesting to note that there is a nice stream of precip from the GOM? into the foothills nw of portland west to say the ossippee area N past the berlin area. This was modeled well on the HRRR meso model (perhaps other local models as well) all heading N'ish and somewhat sliding to the NE over west central maine. the 18z hrrr suggests this will continue overnite and sort of fill in. If 850 temps are model'd correctly on 12z euro , then w.underground maps show 850's 0c go postive around 10-11 am (later than the other models). if both those models are accurate wrt to precip and temps respectively i would think a nice solid 4-8 inches would fall in the attitash -wildcat area and perhaps 6-10 or so further NE by sunday river and NE to saddleback/sugar loaf. i still think there is a small chance those last two mountains over perform as there is potential for 850's to hold back a tad longer there but i'm just hoping maybe most of precip can get out of area while temps are in the low to mid 30's and that not much is washed away for my stay in the area. will be curious to see what if much accumulates in the lower elevation near conway/ intervale with temps around 30 (and rising all day) with the light steady precip falling most of nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 31.2F with freezing drizzle. Stairs starting to become an ice rink. Yeah, especially for Belknap. Don't miss those days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It is nasty out there right now. I barely could make the 100 yard walk to pick up dinner. Not looking forward to the commute into work tonight. I'm glad I'm in for the night. It's freezing sheet drizzle right now. Still stuck at 30.7F.Looking at the mesomap PF posted, there's a weenie zone of 29-31F temps running from just WSW of here through Wolfeboro and toward Acton. Almost everyone else is flirting with 32F or has climbed above it. Bethlehem.HIE are now suffering their dreaded SE downslope and are into the U30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 OT but can any of you recommend a good infrared illuminator? I'm trying to get the best I can for $40-60 to pair with my new cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah, especially for Belknap. Don't miss those days... Haha. They actually cleared Belknap! The hill going up from Mary Lyon is worse right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If only we had more cold air here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Some fairly large parachutes falling right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 i hope they treated the dang roads, i'm gonna be heading up 16 from newington in about half hour. radar looks good up there and should be filling in from S, SW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Must be downslope warming on SSE flow on the western slopes of the Greens... the west side of the spine is one of the warmest spots in New England right now. Pretty cool how topography and wind flow really dictates the weather here in NNE. However, those same warm spots right now stand to clean up this weekend with the potential ULL and upslope combo. I did head to campus for a few hours this afternoon, so I can pass along some interesting observations from the west slope that you would appreciate. If you head just a few miles west of here, the depth of snow on the ground drops off very quickly – there’s only about an inch down in the town at Bolton. Jonesville, Richmond, and even Williston along the highway have basically a dusting on the ground, but surprisingly, at UVM there’s a similar amount of snow to the Bolton area. Perhaps the downsloping got involved in that distribution. Also, once I was west of the Greens, the temperatures were up around 40 F this afternoon, so I’m sure that areas with minimal accumulations were already losing them to some degree. With regard to the upcoming weather, when I look at the Intellicast Radar, there’s a big mass of precipitation headed this way: I wasn’t even expecting to measure much in the way of frozen precipitation on the front end of this, but it sure doesn’t look bad overall based on the point forecast here: Tonight Snow and sleet. Low around 29. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow before 7am, then sleet between 7am and 8am, then rain after 8am. High near 38. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers, mainly before 4am. Low around 27. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Wednesday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 nice stream of snow focusing on wildcat mountain for last couple hours. this should continue overnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I’m surprised there’s not more talk about the next storm; I didn’t even know that Winter Weather Advisories were posted until I went to look at the forecast discussion. Anyway, here’s the advisories map and some text: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012 NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019-180900- /O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0014.121218T0300Z-121218T1500Z/ SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE- WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE... TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND... JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD... RANDOLPH...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS... RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD... KILLINGTON 332 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH SLIPPERY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS. ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO TRAVEL FOR YOUR COMMUTE. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z NAM is a snowstorm for the 'dacks on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 33.5F RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 33.5F RA Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Ditto. Sorry to hear--you were our last hope Obi Wan. Quite the rain here--.91" on the storm (though part of that is what had come as frozen in the earlier system). 34.5/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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