TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think every member misses or just grazes you guys. Tough pill to swallow after being in the Euro commahead. I believe it was yesterday when Jay was wondering aloud who would get more snow between himself and Kevin. Leon Lett Syndrome? Can live with it for now. Things can trend back just as quick as they went east. No white flag here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm surprised this thing has gone so far east. Wow ...big win for the US models over the Euro is this is the case. For about four days the Euro has this thing wound up so far west that the best deformation was from like I-81 to BTV. It's rare for "the King" to capitulate like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Talking me off the chair... 12/21/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looking more like Oct '10 , versus Oct '11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oddly SREFs are all west Post em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nope. We're good. I think you predicted a November snowfall a while back. We have been due for one, so hopefully this one delivers. Usually our November snows are much later than this though. But we did have that early one in Nov 2004. That was a chilly airmass too. A big torch followed that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think you predicted a November snowfall a while back. We have been due for one, so hopefully this one delivers. Usually our November snows are much later than this though. But we did have that early one in Nov 2004. That was a chilly airmass too. A big torch followed that one too. Jerry and Scooter naked on the couch with 04/05 analogy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Post em look your selfhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/cmm_matrix.php?fhr=f060&startdate=latest&field=SREF_H5__ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 look your self http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/cmm_matrix.php?fhr=f060&startdate=latest&field=SREF_H5__ Wow.. me..? Do it myself?? You must be crazy! Looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Models diverging at this point instead of converging appears to be a red flag for an under performer to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Tough forecast. Just starting to look at some of the details and things definitely look a bit more favorable. The GFS has trended dramatically colder from where it was 24 hours ago. Still not sure exactly what to make of the whole thing but today's trends are intriguing. 00z runs should shed some light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If I remember correctly, last year, the models were showing a 12'' snowstorm Monday, and by Tuesday, it was a rainstorm for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If a remember correctly, last year, the models were showing a 12'' snowstorm Monday, and by Tuesday, it was a rainstorm for most of us. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If a remember correctly, last year, the models were showing a 12'' snowstorm Monday, and by Tuesday, it was a rainstorm for most of us. I think not, Last year from November on they did not show much period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think not it was an example. I remember perfectly, one day last winter, here in Mtl, there was a snowstorm for us showed by the models, and 4 runs later , all rain. North-west trend was heavy. Cold rain all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 it was an example. I remember perfectly, one day last winter, here in Mtl, there was a snowstorm for us showed by the models, and 4 runs later , all rain. North-west trend was heavy. Cold rain all winter long. Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can't believe how cold the GFS is for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can't believe how cold the GFS is for BOS. I can - models have been way underdone with the magnitude of this cold and are merely catching on. This is evidence by going back several cycles and comparing to where we are - not trying to take any high road here, it's just what I'm observing. In fact, it could be more surprising that the models were as warm as they were, more so for me than where they are going now. The Euro also trend a tick colder across several cycles in whole. That's perhaps telling as early as yesterday - Perhaps llv grid points are too sparse from source, who knows .. but we are in deep winter air mass, period. I got DPs in the teens and have fallen below 32F before 9PM. 500dm thickness in the upper 530s ? you mix any precipitable water into this airmass and it snows, slam dunk. We need to collectively stop with this transparent bargaining act (let's over do it on skepticism) by digging and digging for any reason to outwit the models - make the snow call and if it doesn't happen, show some balls and take it on the chin. I got no problem going with mainly a snow event during the majority of meaningful QPF and that's what I'm going. Ratios 8 or so to 1, higher in the interior els. Blue snow autumn/spring style. Or nothing... let's hope the e trend doesn't end up in England. Obviously shore and coastal communities don't fit into the argument so hot ..well, because of ocean heat, but that always in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can't believe how cold the GFS is for BOS. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can - models have been way underdone with the magnitude of this cold and are merely catching on. This is evidence by going back several cycles and comparing to where we are - not trying to take any high road here, it's just what I'm observing. In fact, it could be more surprising that the models were as warm as they were, more so for me than where they are going now. The Euro also trend a tick colder across several cycles in whole. That's perhaps telling as early as yesterday - Perhaps llv grid points are too sparse from source, who knows .. but we are in deep winter air mass, period. I got DPs in the teens and have fallen below 32F before 9PM. 500dm thickness in the upper 530s ? you mix any precipitable water into this airmass and it snows, slam dunk. We need to collectively stop with this transparent bargaining act (let's over do it on skepticism) by digging and digging for any reason to outwit the models - make the snow call and if it doesn't happen, show some balls and take it on the chin. I got no problem going with mainly a snow even during the majority of meaningful QPF and that's what I'm going. Ratios 8 or so to 1, higher in the interior els. Blue snow autumn/spring style. Or nothing... let's hope the e trend does end up in England. Obviously shore and coastal communities don't fit into the argument so hot ..well, because of ocean heat, but that always in play. Even down here it's 30F right now with a DP of 18*. Just wondering...John. What do you consider to be elevated when you speak of that? I know my home at 1k in Harwinton is, but at school I'm only at 600'. Fair to consider that elevated? Speaking of Harwinton, it's 26 there. Damn cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can - models have been way underdone with the magnitude of this cold and are merely catching on. This is evidence by going back several cycles and comparing to where we are - not trying to take any high road here, it's just what I'm observing. In fact, it could be more surprising that the models were as warm as they were, more so for me than where they are going now. The Euro also trend a tick colder across several cycles in whole. That's perhaps telling as early as yesterday - Perhaps llv grid points are too sparse from source, who knows .. but we are in deep winter air mass, period. I got DPs in the teens and have fallen below 32F before 9PM. 500dm thickness in the upper 530s ? you mix any precipitable water into this airmass and it snows, slam dunk. We need to collectively stop with this transparent bargaining act (let's over do it on skepticism) by digging and digging for any reason to outwit the models - make the snow call and if it doesn't happen, show some balls and take it on the chin. I got no problem going with mainly a snow even during the majority of meaningful QPF and that's what I'm going. Ratios 8 or so to 1, higher in the interior els. Blue snow autumn/spring style. Or nothing... let's hope the e trend does end up in England. Obviously shore and coastal communities don't fit into the argument so hot ..well, because of ocean heat, but that always in play. lol...You've never been one to take the cautious route in forecasting/discussing on this board. Always throwing out ways a storm can bomb or deliver a heavy snowfall. The weenies appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I can - models have been way underdone with the magnitude of this cold and are merely catching on. This is evidence by going back several cycles and comparing to where we are - not trying to take any high road here, it's just what I'm observing. In fact, it could be more surprising that the models were as warm as they were, more so for me than where they are going now. The Euro also trend a tick colder across several cycles in whole. That's perhaps telling as early as yesterday - Perhaps llv grid points are too sparse from source, who knows .. but we are in deep winter air mass, period. I got DPs in the teens and have fallen below 32F before 9PM. 500dm thickness in the upper 530s ? you mix any precipitable water into this airmass and it snows, slam dunk. We need to stop collectively stop this transparent bargaining act by digging and digging for any reason to outwit the models - make the snow call and if it doesn't happen, show some balls and take it on the chin. I got no problem going with mainly a snow even during the majority of meaningful QPF and that's what I'm going. Ratios 8 or so to 1, higher in the interior els. Blue snow autumn/spring style. Or nothing... let's hope the e trend does end up in England. Obviously shore and coastal communities don't fit into the argument so hot ..well, because of ocean heat, but that always in play. I think the GFS is too far east though, even the ensembles were closer. That goes into how cold the GFS op is. All the previous runs with lows tucked in closer would have gave me mostly rain...no matter what. I understand the interior remaining cold or ticking colder, but the GFS is pretty chilly for BOS. That could happen if the low stays offshore like that, but I don't know if I quite buy something that far east. Maybe it will be, as we saw the shift today. If the runs overnight continue that or even better...get stronger lift NW, then I'll feel more bullish for this area. One other thing to consider. There will be a strong coastal front nearby if the GFS is right..probably right near BOS. It would be possible to create my private little QPF event like 12/26/10 did. That would help with dynamic cooling too. So I hate to say it...but I see a subsidence zone not too far from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Even down here it's 30F right now with a DP of 18*. Just wondering...John. What do you consider to be elevated when you speak of that? I know my home at 1k in Harwinton is, but at school I'm only at 600'. Fair to consider that elevated? Speaking of Harwinton, it's 26 there. Damn cold! I think Will might be better suited to the geographical question per se; I'm can give you the conceptual run down with panache - my experience is that it's make or break in he els beginning at about 800ft, and is why I reference that altitude a lot. But that's in general - you can have idiosyncratic set ups that offer quirky outside the norm layerings - we've seen that before, where it's icing at 1,000 feet and then cold rain at 1,500 because that layer is closer to the elevated warm wedge - that kind of crap. In this case we are in the cold conveyor area of cyclone where the elevations straight up benefit from being higher and into colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Even down here it's 30F right now with a DP of 18*. Just wondering...John. What do you consider to be elevated when you speak of that? I know my home at 1k in Harwinton is, but at school I'm only at 600'. Fair to consider that elevated? Speaking of Harwinton, it's 26 there. Damn cold! Yeah this airmass means business... Wetbulb never got higher than 26F and the high for the day was 29F at the base of the mountain. Snow cover above 1,200ft is going no where. Early November and highs below freezing... that's a cold airmass. Widespread teens and maybe even some upper single digits possible in the normal icebox spots like SLK tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think the GFS is too far east though, even the ensembles were closer. That goes into how cold the GFS op is. All the previous runs with lows tucked in closer would have gave me mostly rain...no matter what. I understand the interior remaining cold or ticking colder, but the GFS is pretty chilly for BOS. That could happen if the low stays offshore like that, but I don't know if I quite buy something that far east. Maybe it will be, as we saw the shift today. If the runs overnight continue that or even better...get stronger lift NW, then I'll feel more bullish for this area. One other thing to consider. There will be a strong coastal front nearby if the GFS is right..probably right near BOS. It would be possible to create my private little QPF event like 12/26/10 did. That would help with dynamic cooling too. So I hate to say it...but I see a subsidence zone not too far from here. Oh, I see - yeah no that's certainly a good point on the coast. I did mention that the arguments don't hold much water ...well, they do ironically haha, on the coast... And by that I mean within 20mile of the shore at this time of year. Yeah, too bad we don't have a +PP, North But, as you say, if the east track pans than it may bring the goods closer. But even so, gosh the water's in the 50s still - east schmeest, it rains in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think the GFS is too far east though, even the ensembles were closer. That goes into how cold the GFS op is. All the previous runs with lows tucked in closer would have gave me mostly rain...no matter what. I understand the interior remaining cold or ticking colder, but the GFS is pretty chilly for BOS. That could happen if the low stays offshore like that, but I don't know if I quite buy something that far east. Maybe it will be, as we saw the shift today. If the runs overnight continue that or even better...get stronger lift NW, then I'll feel more bullish for this area. One other thing to consider. There will be a strong coastal front nearby if the GFS is right..probably right near BOS. It would be possible to create my private little QPF event like 12/26/10 did. That would help with dynamic cooling too. So I hate to say it...but I see a subsidence zone not too far from here. Hmm...wonder where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oh, I see - yeah no that's certainly a good point on the coast. I did mention that the arguments don't hold much water ...well, they do ironically haha, on the coast... And by that I mean within 20mile of the shore at this time of year. Yeah, too bad we don't have a +PP, North But, as you say, if the east track pans than it may bring the goods closer. But even so, gosh the water's in the 50s still - east schmeest, it rains in Boston. Yeah I was shocked at the sounding..lol. I can't even buy that in the middle of January sometimes, but that is a testament to the wetbulb potential and ageostrophic flow with the winds more nrly. I'll hold off until the morning and evaluate then because models are still having a tough time handling the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hmm...wonder where LOL, well that's if the GFS was right. However even on the euro..there were signs of a CF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 LOL, well that's if the GFS was right. However even on the euro..there were signs of a CF too. Always one of my favorite radar images as it moves west and then collapses back southeast in some of the best storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Always one of my favorite radar images as it moves west and then collapses back southeast in some of the best storms. Yeah I have a fetish for that. I love mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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