powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 As far as a forecast, I'm starting to like sort of two areas of snowfall with this storm. One down in the mid-Atlantic somewhere, then another band of accumulations from the Berkshires/GC area up through central NH and western ME. Too far south for much of anything here, but also too far north for a large number of SNE members. A MoneyPitMike special. I've just got that feeling after watching the last couple days of model runs, that the needle gets threaded from the Berks through the Monadnocks into Dendrites area and the Lakes region up towards Plymouth, and then into the mountains of western Maine. Biggest question mark in my mind is the higher elevations of NE CT area up through the ORH Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 As far as a forecast, I'm starting to like sort of two areas of snowfall with this storm. One down in the mid-Atlantic somewhere, then another band of accumulations from the Berkshires/GC area up through central NH and western ME. Too far south for much of anything here, but also too far north for a large number of SNE members. A MoneyPitMike special. I've just got that feeling after watching the last couple days of model runs, that the needle gets threaded from the Berks through the Monadnocks into Dendrites area and the Lakes region up towards Plymouth, and then into the mountains of western Maine. Biggest question mark in my mind is the higher elevations of NE CT area up through the ORH Hills. dude, did you look at any models today? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Did you know Chris M is at 1 K in Harwinton and 600 feet at Uconn, just wanted to remind you. Biggest 0 Z run in Towson Jays life, I think he will wish he was naked on Scooters couch with Jerry cheering on the Euro tonight. Scooter with his Zima Jerry with his Boones farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 dude, did you look at any models today? lol haha what? Did you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Did you know Chris M is at 1 K in Harwinton and 600 feet at Uconn, just wanted to remind you. Biggest 0 Z run in Towson Jays life, I think he will wish he was naked on Scooters couch with Jerry cheering on the Euro tonight. Scooter with his Zima Jerry with his Boones farm. Thought it was MD 20/20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Did you know Chris M is at 1 K in Harwinton and 600 feet at Uconn, just wanted to remind you. Biggest 0 Z run in Towson Jays life, I think he will wish he was naked on Scooters couch with Jerry cheering on the Euro tonight. Scooter with his Zima Jerry with his Boones farm. I really don't realize why sometimes you're such a d*ck to people who do nothing to antagonize you, but whatever I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 SREFs moved pretty far SE with snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 haha what? Did you? Euro looks better for snow in SNE, GFS looked good for snow in SNE, SREFs looked good for snow in SNE...Do I have to continue or do you get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 SREFs moved pretty far SE with snow probs The mean critical thicknesses were pretty far s and e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 dude, did you look at any models today? lol For example of why I'm thinking Berkshires/Monadnocks/central NH/western ME foothills... taking the model guidance and blending it with climo. Really not a stretch to imagine that's where the best snow falls... I'm not ready to buy the super cold guidance on the coastal plain. That's why I said the biggest unknown IMO is NE CT through the ORH hills. Here's the Canadian GGEM... look at the H7 relative humidity for the axis of a possible deformation band. Now here's the UKMET...again look at the position of the H7 RH where there'll probably be a band of enhanced precip. Ukmet and Ggem are quite similar in the eventual location of a H7 deformation axis. Then look at the ECMWF... I don't have axis to any QPF or anything from the ECM, so gotta rely on the weenie snowfall maps. Again, I'm not sold on the super cold staying put in eastern MA, but the ECM is another model that is quite obviously highlighting the usual Berks/Monadnocks/C.NH axis... All I'm saying is that's the way I'm leaning right now... haha, but yes I did look at some models, ChrisM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I really don't realize why sometimes you're such a d*ck to people who do nothing to antagonize you, but whatever I guess. lol, payback is a b. You should head home, big early Novie snows incoming. SREFs liking home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro looks better for snow in SNE, GFS looked good for snow in SNE, SREFs looked good for snow in SNE...Do I have to continue or do you get it? LOL That SREF map posted shows exactly the axis I was thinking... western New England (Berks/GC) up through central NH and into western ME if you connect the dots in the means. Again, biggest question mark is SE towards the ORH hills, which now the SREFS are showing some props so that may be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM might be really good in SNE. Least for my sake it trended somewhat west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM wetbulbs the sh*t out of SNE..lol. Srn CT is below freezing by sunset Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 lol, payback is a b. You should head home, big early Novie snows incoming. SREFs liking home. What are you talking about? Apparently everything looks great for all of SNE, not just western SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Did you know Chris M is at 1 K in Harwinton and 600 feet at Uconn, just wanted to remind you. Biggest 0 Z run in Towson Jays life, I think he will wish he was naked on Scooters couch with Jerry cheering on the Euro tonight. Scooter with his Zima Jerry with his Boones farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Holy crap...the NAM soundings at 45-48 HR could support snow here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Damn impressive WV right now. That is a lot of digging energy, this storm will crawl at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's a good hit of QPF near NYC and SW CT/LI with the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 As far as a forecast, I'm starting to like sort of two areas of snowfall with this storm. One down in the mid-Atlantic somewhere, then another band of accumulations from the Berkshires/GC area up through central NH and western ME. Too far south for much of anything here, but also too far north for a large number of SNE members. A MoneyPitMike special. I've just got that feeling after watching the last couple days of model runs, that the needle gets threaded from the Berks through the Monadnocks into Dendrites area and the Lakes region up towards Plymouth, and then into the mountains of western Maine. Biggest question mark in my mind is the higher elevations of NE CT area up through the ORH Hills. Of course Dendrite will get it...snowglobe of NE. I'll be satisifed with a catpaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The euro needs to show me some love tonight or ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I wish it would bomb out a little further north, but that seems decent for a good chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 54 looks bizarre with temps aloft lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At first this didn't look like a good setup for you guys, but now that models changed the locations of every damn synaptic feature it looks like a nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I wish it would bomb out a little further north, but that seems decent for a good chunk of SNE. Theres the thin strip toothpaste blue bomb well depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Of course Dendrite will get it...snowglobe of NE. I'll be satisifed with a catpaw. lol yeah that's always a high confidence forecast... central NH seems to find a way to snow in most synoptic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What are you talking about? Apparently everything looks great for all of SNE, not just western SNE. I can't wait to bump troll you later All in fun of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I wish it would bomb out a little further north, but that seems decent for a good chunk of SNE. The NAM has some very solid VV's into CT between 45-51 HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Anyone want to throw early numbers for...say... ORH FIT ASH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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