Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Those ridiculous HWW of 70 mph gusts may have to be changed to WSW..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty tough getting a HWW out of this 18z GFS run, Low is @992mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wow, GFS is rather chilly. And snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You can see the difference when comparing the models from yesterday and today. They both show less phasing and the lead s/w is weaker. Rather big differences between 18z GFS yesterday vs today. This izs00z vs 18z. 00z. 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Of course the upside is a colder solution for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks Ginxy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I cannot fathom accum snow two years in a row so early...obviously would not be nearly as much here but an inch or two seems to be looking more and more likely.. at least all the leaves are off the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I would take this and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Both the Euro and NAM graphics output a significant early season snow event now extending into lower elevations as well - but higher elevations would still exceed to do up-slope and ratios together. I don't see quite as much ZR out of this as we are in the cold conveyor district of the cyclone, and the thermal profile of those tends to be more isothermal. You could get some warm layers aloft but they are usually pretty far up there where the WCB splits - the western end may form a trowel feature, and the other part peals off into the downstream riding. When that occurs, you usually end up with a tall sleet column. Again, I still believe the emerging reality in the runs is that this is just a early season snow event period. Ground temperatures are an issue. These products pumping out 6+" may be what is/has fallen per time interval but it's a question how much of that is measured in actual depth. As far as the later trend to push the action further East ...eh, maybe, sure. One thing I am noticing is less aggressive phase in these recent runs; with less you get a bit less rapidity in the intensification rates - in addition to moving the low E, it also means that dynamics are available further N. Oh, ha - Scott mentioned the phase issues above - word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I would take this and run. I would too..lol. I probably would get some sort of sloppy measurable. Maybe better if the lift can survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS soundings are really cold...it has ORH below freezing at the sfc tomorrow evening with 950mb temps of -5C. Even BOS at 54h has 950mb temps of -2 or -3C...that would be snow right in the city. Might have some trouble sticking, but definitely flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This has morphed from a damaging windstorm into a damaging wet snowstorm FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LiTolland is ready..Just posted on FB ke · · Share · 58 minutes ago near Tolland · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This has morphed from a damaging windstorm into a damaging wet snowstorm FTW If by damaging wet snowstorm, you mean a couple inches of paste...then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Both the Euro and NAM graphics output a significant early season snow event now extending into lower elevations as well - but higher elevations would still exceed to do up-slope and ratios together. I don't see quite as much ZR out of this as we are in the cold conveyor district of the cyclone, and the thermal profile of those tends to be more isothermal. You could get some warm layers aloft but they are usually pretty far up there where the WAA splits - the western end may form a trowel feature, and the other part peals off into the downstream riding. When that occurs, you usually end up with a tall sleet column. Again, I still believe the emerging reality in the runs is that this is just a early season snow event period. Ground temperatures are an issue. These products pumping out 6+" may be what is/has fallen per time interval but it's a question how much of that is measured in actual depth. As far as the later trend to push the action further East ...eh, maybe, sure. One thing I am noticing is less aggressive phase in these recent runs; with less you get a bit less rapidity in the intensification rates - in addition to moving the low E, it also means that dynamics are available further N. Oh, ha - Scott mentioned the phase issues above - word! Skin temps should be decently cold after these next couple of days. Insolation is fairly low, but if the precip shield can't keep itself solidly organized there could be thin spots in the ovc for the valleys. For areas that hang around 32-34F having this at night for that reason may be a slight benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice, then it exceeds 70F next week - ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS soundings are really cold...it has ORH below freezing at the sfc tomorrow evening with 950mb temps of -5C. Even BOS at 54h has 950mb temps of -2 or -3C...that would be snow right in the city. Might have some trouble sticking, but definitely flakes in the air. GFS has the look of an ORH-IJD special. I'm a little bummed being as far west as I am but I know if it comes too far west then WAA at the mid-levels = game-over. Either way, it'd be good to see it beef up on precip. in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Skin temps should be decently cold after these next couple of days. Insolation is fairly low, but if the precip shield can't keep itself solidly organized there could be thin spots in the ovc for the valleys. For areas that hang around 32-34F having this at night for that reason may be a slight benefit. Agreed - ...actually, in all honesty part of me was regretting having mentioned the ground temps. I think that is overrated to some degree - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice little advisory event for a good part of SNE and even up here in to parts of NNE on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Weaker and further east = I'm happy with some flakes in the air. A lot of kids in my class are from warm parts of the country, so it'd be nice to show off some winter weather in Boston this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LiTolland is ready..Just posted on FB ke · · Share · 58 minutes ago near Tolland · Wow ...didn't realize Tolland had their own snow plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Not enough snow here, I'm tossing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If by damaging wet snowstorm, you mean a couple inches of paste...then yes. It seems very possible many places see 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think I can issue my first (and warranted) 'no qpf' claim of the season. Congrats Hubb and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wow ...didn't realize Tolland had their own snow plow. They usually beg for help from ORH Tippy Blue Bomber incoming. I really did not see things shifting the way they have in terms of models. Let's see what up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It seems very possible many places see 6+ mph? yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 They usually beg for help from ORH Tippy Blue Bomber incoming. I really did not see things shifting the way they have in terms of models. Let's see what up! Being a hilltown you know requires a fleet of plows which we have. I think Tolland plows for Coventry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think I can issue my first (and warranted) 'no qpf' claim of the season. Congrats Hubb and others. I dunno... still some will fall on you in one form or another. This could be an Ayer Annhialator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Geez, look at the torch that follows...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Being a hilltown you know requires a fleet of plows which we have. I think Tolland plows for Coventry It doesn't take much when your max is 14" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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