north pgh Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Heavy, heavy meteors currently. Walked outside and once my eyes adjusted a bit to the dark I saw 3 in under 10 minutes. I have been out staring to the North Northeast for 20 minutes and have counted 20. I am seeing one a minute! Best I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I have been out staring to the North Northeast for 20 minutes and have counted 20. I am seeing one a minute! Best I've ever seen. Most of the ones i've seen are just off to the left of Orion as well as over it and directly overhead. Def the best meteor shower i've ever seen. Switching to a bit lower in the sky, looks like Euro has returned to the bigger storm being in close.. (a bit too close in fact) for us this run, tracking a strengthening low from WV thru some part of SE PA to Boston. On the other end of the spectrum, I suspect the GFS and friends could be doing their usual playing possum in the mid range with the early-mid week storm being pretty far east and a late bloomer. Another storm via the Euro 168-192, I thought for sure another lakes cutter at 168 until I saw 192. Takes a decent low over Chicago right over to the southern Jersey coast somehow. We go from nearly +10ºC at 850 at hour 168 to -10ºC in western PA at 192. Unsure of precip yet in that range. There's already enough discontinuity amongst the models with the late weekend into early next week timeframe trying to handle the multiple shortwaves. About the only thing I could guarantee at this juncture is it's probably going to precipitate a couple times between Sunday and Wednesday. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well now that I see the full Euro, instead of the dang 24 hour intervals on Ewall, will say that our storm in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe is a bit better tracked than I thought, staying just barely south of PA. Very very close thermally to wet snowstorm in the central with nice QPF. The later period storm cuts off over Chicago and reforms a low over Jersey rotating a thin but intense band of precip into the eastern third of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 was out watching the sky from 2 - 2:30 and we saw around 30...very cool sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 was out watching the sky from 2 - 2:30 and we saw around 30...very cool sight I just came back in from being out in the backyard for another 20-30 min. Still active out there, and I saw a couple really nice ones with the long trail as well as yet another burst of 2 at pretty much the same time... which seems to be a popular thing with this shower. Saw them all over the sky this time, although most still on either side of the constellation of Orion. Very nice winter night out.. crisp and cold with absolutely no wind. Just need a 6-10" snowpack and it'd be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Heavy, heavy meteors currently. Walked outside and once my eyes adjusted a bit to the dark I saw 3 in under 10 minutes. M+! I enjoyed it. I stood outside by myself at the end of our yard, no sounds except for Laurel Run 20 feet to my left. Can't wait for pennman's report, he went to a very dark spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Mag thanks for the updates! Surprised that we really haven't had any snow accumulating yet in December. Usually the first week and around the 3 week we get some snow. djr5001 some interesting reading on your research! I would be interested seeing the results on ipt. when your done. Thanks 19 degrees the last two mornings here at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Mag thanks for the updates! Surprised that we really haven't had any snow accumulating yet in December. Usually the first week and around the 3 week we get some snow. djr5001 some interesting reading on your research! I would be interested seeing the results on ipt. when your done. Thanks 19 degrees the last two mornings here at the house. We've had 15.8 and 16.9. I second the mag gratitude. And I agree with him, if we had snowcover I would imagine single digits would be in play. Don't want to get too up or down on anything with this pattern but the model runs are at least somewhat interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Coldest 2 mornings of the season to date yesterday and then this morning... 21.4 degrees yesterday and 18.7 degrees this morning which was also the first teens low of the season for me. Widespread, heavy frost on everything this morning. Looked nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Coldest (20 degrees) of the season this morning. Had that look of winter, minus the snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Coldest (20 degrees) of the season this morning. Had that look of winter, minus the snow of course. Fantastic photo, great composition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12Z Euro looked decent around here for the late week storm. Showed something pretty close to a few inches of wet snow here. What do you people who have a far better grasp of this think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 M+! I enjoyed it. I stood outside by myself at the end of our yard, no sounds except for Laurel Run 20 feet to my left. Can't wait for pennman's report, he went to a very dark spot. It was spectacular. Saw probably upwards of 100 meteors in 35-45 minutes, several long bright ones. The Milky Way was incredibly clear. Oddly enough, I think the best meteor I saw was as I was leaving Milesburg on Rt. 150 on my way up. Nearly fireball quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 LOL Our once-potential storm for Monday/Tuesday will feature days maybe in the mid 50s. Hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 How long until the Christmas storm ends up the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The wheels fell off the snow wagon for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro ditches the cold and goes with huge Christmas day cutter. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Fantastic photo, great composition. Thanks Jamie! There's kind of a funny "after story" to it. I took my wife to physical therapy that morning and was heading to my work to pick up my check, so I took the camera knowing it would be frosty and that it might make for some good shots. It turns out (and I didn't know this until I got to work) that one of our other drivers had hit a cow (yes...a cow) the night before in that very same location. So there I am, camera in hand, shooting all kinds of pics at various locations and angles. I'll bet the farmer thought I was an insurance adjuster taking pics of the accident scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The wheels fell off the snow wagon for the next week. I think this month can be best described as a train wreck in slow motion. I know its been very frustrating to try to make any kind of a determination on what the mid or long range will do. We lost what had been forecast to be a pretty negative NAO earlier last week, which was essential with the continuing -PNA regime to try to force storms underneath us. So now we lose not only this storm but the next one later in the week. Given the very brief "cold" behind system #1 and quick moderation between systems we'll probably end up in the + category temp wise most of this week. This strong cutter progged for approx Thurs/Fri or so should provide a decent cold punch behind and finally get the lake effect cranking with a cyclonic NW flow regime that sticks around for at least a couple days. The magnitude of the cold behind that system will determine whether it is just run of the mill LES that doesn't really get off the mountains or if we can get a bigger event that might sneak some more organized bands and/or widespread showers and squalls farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 How long until the Christmas storm ends up the same? Euro ditches the cold and goes with huge Christmas day cutter. Merry Christmas. About 12 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I think this month can be best described as a train wreck in slow motion. I know its been very frustrating to try to make any kind of a determination on what the mid or long range will do. We lost what had been forecast to be a pretty negative NAO earlier last week, which was essential with the continuing -PNA regime to try to force storms underneath us. So now we lose not only this storm but the next one later in the week. Given the very brief "cold" behind system #1 and quick moderation between systems we'll probably end up in the + category temp wise most of this week. This strong cutter progged for approx Thurs/Fri or so should provide a decent cold punch behind and finally get the lake effect cranking with a cyclonic NW flow regime that sticks around for at least a couple days. The magnitude of the cold behind that system will determine whether it is just run of the mill LES that doesn't really get off the mountains or if we can get a bigger event that might sneak some more organized bands and/or widespread showers and squalls farther east. The 12z GFS looks decent to me for les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 LES works for one forum member and hes in Texas I believe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I think this month can be best described as a train wreck in slow motion. I know its been very frustrating to try to make any kind of a determination on what the mid or long range will do. We lost what had been forecast to be a pretty negative NAO earlier last week, which was essential with the continuing -PNA regime to try to force storms underneath us. So now we lose not only this storm but the next one later in the week. Given the very brief "cold" behind system #1 and quick moderation between systems we'll probably end up in the + category temp wise most of this week. This strong cutter progged for approx Thurs/Fri or so should provide a decent cold punch behind and finally get the lake effect cranking with a cyclonic NW flow regime that sticks around for at least a couple days. The magnitude of the cold behind that system will determine whether it is just run of the mill LES that doesn't really get off the mountains or if we can get a bigger event that might sneak some more organized bands and/or widespread showers and squalls farther east. This is a bit too much like 2001-2002, based on the whole "cold gets pushed back thing". I don't know if reality of the atmosphere and analogs support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 ...and the beat goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I think this month can be best described as a train wreck in slow motion. I know its been very frustrating to try to make any kind of a determination on what the mid or long range will do. We lost what had been forecast to be a pretty negative NAO earlier last week, which was essential with the continuing -PNA regime to try to force storms underneath us. So now we lose not only this storm but the next one later in the week. Given the very brief "cold" behind system #1 and quick moderation between systems we'll probably end up in the + category temp wise most of this week. This strong cutter progged for approx Thurs/Fri or so should provide a decent cold punch behind and finally get the lake effect cranking with a cyclonic NW flow regime that sticks around for at least a couple days. The magnitude of the cold behind that system will determine whether it is just run of the mill LES that doesn't really get off the mountains or if we can get a bigger event that might sneak some more organized bands and/or widespread showers and squalls farther east. Euro is pretty aggressive with this, GFS seemed to trend that way at 18Z. It's our only shot at accumulating snow in December, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 les never works lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Starting to get the "Randy Quaid from Major League II effect" towards things... "Break out the tarp! Cover the field!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 New euro stays pretty cold end of the week thru Christmas with a pretty long lasting NW flow reigime. Chances for a white Christmas are def looking up for the Laurels and perhaps even the Pittsburgh gang who can do half decent with LES. Seems to look like one of those setup that IMO could deliver more organized activity that makes its way into the central counties and maybe drop a couple inches or so to some lucky folks and some snow showers further southeast. Lake temps are above average and virtually untapped thus far so if the decent cold shot continues as advertised, it could be a somewhat feisty. Limiting factor, at least initially.. would actually be the cold itself as 850 temps only about -8 to -10ºC. That's still ok, but not really anything overly ridiculous for this time of year. This deepens to the -10 to -15 range on the Euro as we get into the Sun/Mon timeframe and remain in cyclonic flow though. Overall, this should help out the resorts a good bit in the Laurels. Def potential for a longer duration 6"+ for the usual suspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 A second chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 New euro stays pretty cold end of the week thru Christmas with a pretty long lasting NW flow reigime. Chances for a white Christmas are def looking up for the Laurels and perhaps even the Pittsburgh gang who can do half decent with LES. Seems to look like one of those setup that IMO could deliver more organized activity that makes its way into the central counties and maybe drop a couple inches or so to some lucky folks and some snow showers further southeast. Lake temps are above average and virtually untapped thus far so if the decent cold shot continues as advertised, it could be a somewhat feisty. Limiting factor, at least initially.. would actually be the cold itself as 850 temps only about -8 to -10ºC. That's still ok, but not really anything overly ridiculous for this time of year. This deepens to the -10 to -15 range on the Euro as we get into the Sun/Mon timeframe and remain in cyclonic flow though. Overall, this should help out the resorts a good bit in the Laurels. Def potential for a longer duration 6"+ for the usual suspects. Sounds okay to me. I think these two posts are worth a read: Uses science, not emotion, to make a pretty good argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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