Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I just want a nice WAA snow....a good overunning event. I don't want to have to worry about cut-offs and shifts east...I just want to have a solid 4 to 8 event. That is all I want. Thank you lol. The polar vortex is now progged to retreat to central Russia and stay there for at least a week. This will flood the our continent with mild Pacific air through at least New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I just want a nice WAA snow....a good overunning event. I don't want to have to worry about cut-offs and shifts east...I just want to have a solid 4 to 8 event. That is all I want. Thank you lol. Outside of the big storms of '83, '93, and '96, these are the types of snowfalls I remember most during my younger years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Euro tonight was well horrid. Many lake cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The polar vortex is now progged to retreat to central Russia and stay there for at least a week. This will flood the our continent with mild Pacific air through at least New Years. There's no scientific evidence behind this, but it seems like we're right back where we were last year. "The cold is coming!" then you push it back a week or two, and then 10 days, and then mid-month, end of month, the next month and the cold never comes. I feel that people "whine" about not getting cold/snow because they truly like it, but it's still a bit over-the-top, but I feel a legitimate complaint about all of this is that we really need some cold, at the very least to kill insects and bugs. I've never seen so many insects and bugs as I had seen this past summer in my entire life, and I've spent almost half of that in the woods. So if people are to complaint, at least that's a good place to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 What a waste of precip. Between Friday and today the snow would be , well, you get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The event for Sunday is a bit more interesting for some of the area on the latest GFS. It actually prints an accumulating snow for some areas before a change to light rain/drizzle, but it's marginal at best. At least it might be something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 It snowed a few inches at my parents this morning. In Texas. Their low tonight will beat our lowest of this year so far. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The event for Sunday is a bit more interesting for some of the area on the latest GFS. It actually prints an accumulating snow for some areas before a change to light rain/drizzle, but it's marginal at best. At least it might be something to watch... While the Euro has a Miller B bomb rainstorm for us. low over SE PA and 3-5" of rain for all. YAY! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The event for Sunday is a bit more interesting for some of the area on the latest GFS. It actually prints an accumulating snow for some areas before a change to light rain/drizzle, but it's marginal at best. At least it might be something to watch... Yea GFS has been trying its best to keep the low underneath PA and Euro has been lifting it west of PA or in the case of the new 12z run, popping a decent secondary low but since the low is progged a bit too far NW, not to mention the first low is already in the lakes and pulled warmer air up... the result is another cold rainstorm with the secondary low unable to pull the cold air back in time. The follow up storm it has behind that one is really piling it on. Very close though, it's going to ultimately come down to the strength of the -NAO. If we have enough blocking I can see the GFS solution but I'd have to slightly favor the Euro take at this point given our track record so far this month. I sure hope not though. Seeing that 12z Euro... man that looks just like last year around the holidays with the series of storms (even coastal lows) that just didn't couldn't tap in cold enough air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Joe Murgo has updated / changed his wintercast... http://wearecentralpa.com/fulltext?nxd_id=414462 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Having a look at the traffic cams we have snow flying up in the Laurels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Got some BS flakes mixing in down here at 1200'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS looks amazing. Storms and cold. EPO goes negative after the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Joe Murgo has updated / changed his wintercast... http://wearecentralp...t?nxd_id=414462 I think he primarily updated the December part of his forecast, which was needed. We'd pretty much need a historic cold outbreak and then some to reverse the departures from the first week of December and finish -4 for the month. A pretty major turnaround temp wise would be needed just to get back around average. However, that does not have to mean that we will not see any opportunities for snowfall the rest of the month, even in the absence of a major Arctic attack. I still think we will have our chances the 2nd half of this month as it finally is starting to look more active storm wise. Whether or not we get anything that pans out is another story, but I don't think we'll completely torch our way out of the rest of the month. It might not be overly cold, and we'll probably be creeping above average for our highs once again by the end of the week for example...but I'm not going to be quick to punt the whole month away. I wouldn't sleep on this weekends possible storm for instance, as I think the potential for at the least having some portion of the storm feature a bit wintry precip is rather reasonable. Still waiting on the new euro, but dang 0z GFS was an all out toaster bath cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 18 at my parents this morning in East Texas with quite a bit of ice. Happy for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 18 at my parents this morning in East Texas with quite a bit of ice. Happy for them! Have you seen the local news/weather? I haven't seen watched for over a week, my co-worker just told me he saw last night one of the stations is chirping loudly about a big storm for the 18th? I find that hard to believe, they usually don't discuss storms that far out?!?!? i ask him him if he was drunk or dreaming, he said no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well the GFS has quite the interesting scenario brewing day 7/8. Huge low from the MW looking like it wants to cut west of us but the block is there from this weekends cutter shunting the storms south. However it shunts it a bit too far south so that the heaviest precip stays to our south although the PA/MD border does get into it a bit. This thing is a QPF bomb as modeled but keep in mind it's still a week out. However tons of potential starting next week and some more threats on down the pipe as well. Looks like we are getting into an active period with plenty of storm chances moving toward Christmas. Hopefully we can get the cold air with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Have you seen the local news/weather? I haven't seen watched for over a week, my co-worker just told me he saw last night one of the stations is chirping loudly about a big storm for the 18th? I find that hard to believe, they usually don't discuss storms that far out?!?!? i ask him him if he was drunk or dreaming, he said no! I gave up watching local news last winter. They are just not good at all - I'll watch when an event is happening live but not anything other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I gave up watching local news last winter. They are just not good at all - I'll watch when an event is happening live but not anything other. i didn't think you paid attention either. I just don't think i ever saw them (local stations) talk about a snow storm (potential) a week away. I think my co-worker was dreaming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro folds to GFS on a coastal idea. Now the question is where will it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro folds to GFS on a coastal idea. Now the question is where will it go? The coast. Duhhhhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro folds to GFS on a coastal idea. Now the question is where will it go? Boy what a shift, from a GLC train to having a light QPF event (possible mix) from the first event cutting off west of here and the two waves behind that going way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Let's play "guess the first snow of 3" or higher" game! MDT: 1/16/13 UNV: 12/28/12 JST: 12/28/12 ITP: 1/7/13 York: 1/16/13 LNS: 12/18/12 Chambersburg: 1/16/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 MDT: 12/19/13 UNV: 03/07/13 JST: 02/27/13 ITP: 12/19/13 York: 1/07/14 LNS: 1/07/14 Chambersburg: 1/07/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That'll be one hell of a westward cutoff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Yeah well, would it really shock you at this juncture? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro destroys all of us off the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What did the Euro show easternwx? Destroys us with 6-10? Also what day is it looking like it may hit? Wednesday next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What did the Euro show easternwx? Destroys us with 6-10? Also what day is it looking like it may hit? Wednesday next week? Yes 19th. Think it would be 12"+ this run. Check out my video and you'll see Storm vista maps of it. Here is a little map I made of what it shows since I can't post SV on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 6z GFS is ugly as far as a snow storm for central pa. Pretty much a whiff other then Monday nights runs and yesterday morning it hasn't been to kind to us for the Wednesday/Thursday storm. Euro supposedly looks ok. Just have a feeling with the track record in this very young winter, this will again miss us and sne gets clobbered like the 0z and 6z GFS shows. Much like all the storms so far this winter. Sorry just my opinion, and god I hope I'm wrong, would love a 975 MB winter storm off the coast of ocean city crawling away at a snails pace. (Long overdue). Good luck on the future runs people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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