JamieOber Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 les never works lol. "It's Christmas, Wmsptwx, it's the time of miracles so be of good cheer." - Ghost of Hans Gruber via the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 "I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas" - 12/17 06Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 "I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas" - 12/17 06Z GFS Santa, is that really you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 "I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas" - 12/17 06Z GFS Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 "I really like you guys in central PA, I really do. For the most part you don't b**ch too much like the jackasses in the other forums. So, tell ya what, it's the best I can do given how it all sucks lately, but how about I give you guys 1-3" on Xmas Eve from some little wave. Just for you. Merry Christmas" - 12/17 06Z GFS NAW JUST KIDDING!! -12/17 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 trollol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAW JUST KIDDING!! -12/17 12z GFS Took it away, the bastard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 There's been something lurking just after Christmas on both the GFS and Euro the last couple days. Doesn't look overly great though as both have been trying to cut it. Last night and todays Euro has one helluve CAD scenario though as the low actually occludes in the southeast, starts filling as it cuts up, and tries to start a secondary on the east coast at 240 hr. Way to far out yet, we'll have a somewhat better idea about it by the end of the week. It does look like a period to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 https://www.facebook...458425827538014 Was visiting the Philly thread and someone posted some comments about a great write-up by Dave Tolleris for the post-Christmas snow storm potential. It's a great read so I thought I'd post the facebook link to it here. I'm sure there are more direct ways to find this but I thought this method was okay. It definitely helped cheer me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow. I've uh... never been censored on here before. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Anybody have access to the Eastern / AmericanWx threads for February 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It looks cold and windy Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Anybody have access to the Eastern / AmericanWx threads for February 2010? I found myself looking through them a while ago when dreaming about epic snowstorms. Here's a good place to start... http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__2360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Thank god I am going to Johnstown Thursday. They look to get crushed with 6"+ lake effect Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I found myself looking through them a while ago when dreaming about epic snowstorms. Here's a good place to start... http://www.easternus...__all__st__2360 Thanks! On an unrelated note, DT is really honking for the post-Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 I found myself looking through them a while ago when dreaming about epic snowstorms. Here's a good place to start... http://www.easternus...__all__st__2360 Painful memories...at least until 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Thanks! On an unrelated note, DT is really honking for the post-Christmas storm. He just "threw a run of the Euro out" because it didn't show want he wanted it to. Seriously, he does this like twice a day. Why is he taken seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 He just "threw a run of the Euro out" because it didn't show want he wanted it to. Seriously, he does this like twice a day. Why is he taken seriously? Certainly a more believable run than it was last night with that system. It's also a longer duration snow to sleet to ZR to rain event for a good portion of Central PA verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Thank god I am going to Johnstown Thursday. They look to get crushed with 6"+ lake effect Friday into Saturday. Yea your def gonna be good to go up there. I expect a warning level event for Cambria and Somerset counties. Watches up already in WVA. CTP already has an early snowmap for Fri-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yea your def gonna be good to go up there. I expect a warning level event for Cambria and Somerset counties. Watches up already in WVA. CTP already has an early snowmap for Fri-Sun. I am thinking 5-10"+ NAM starting to really show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 CTP acknowledges the post X-mas threat. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIME SHOULD LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 18/12Z ECENS AND GEFS SHOW A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WHICH SHOULD FORCE HEIGHTS TO RISE DOWNSTREAM. A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FCST TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL US NEXT TUE WHERE SRN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/GULF INFLOW/DEVELOPING PCPN COULD OCCUR TUCKED UNDERNEATH A MID-HIGHER LATITUDE DOME OF COLDER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PCPN TO THE REGION AROUND DEC 26TH /NEXT WED/ AS IT LIFTS NEWD THRU THE LWR MS/TN/OH VLYS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yea your def gonna be good to go up there. I expect a warning level event for Cambria and Somerset counties. Watches up already in WVA. CTP already has an early snowmap for Fri-Sun. What do you think about for us in the I99 corridor. I am hoping for an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS has some snow to a lot of ice. Slowly getting colder. Euro also shows ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Bing Crosby's "White Christmas" is trolling me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What do you think about for us in the I99 corridor. I am hoping for an inch or two. I think an inch or two is pretty doable, especially in our lil zone that's between the Allegheny front and I-99. When this gets more into meso-model range will have to see the take on the evolution of LES features. Would imagine the early stages of this event will feature the widespread snow shield (part LES/orographic and perhaps partly the remnants of the deform) that encompasses alot of western PA but doesnt get very far off the mountains. Given that this looks like a fairly strong event, I'd say that alone will probably be enough to get that inch or two for us. As the system itself starts lifting out and the NW flow continues, we could see the more intense discrete bands that with the right alignment (ie a huron connection) could penetrate much deeper into the central counties. Additionally (something also mentioned in CTP afternoon disco), alot of guidance still suggests the back end of the precip shield associated with the frontal passage Thurs night could turn over to snow before it moves out. 15z SREFs for example, have pretty high probabilities of 1"+ for alot of the central and even half decent probs for 4+ in the northern tier before you see the LES regime start lighting up the Laurels and west. Hr 69: Then there's the storm next week, we got a ways to go for that one. I do think this one could feature the best shot of wintry precip yet this early season. I also think this storm is going to attempt to cut with the -PNA and a neutral to perhaps slightly negative NAO (as it looks currently of course). However, I don't think this one is going to have the easy cut like the one coming up is going to have. For starters, we'll have had cold air in place. Then there's the debatable blocking discussion. I even saw JB and Margusity seem to get a lil snippy on twitter earlier today over this. To put this in 7-9 days out terms, there's a strong indication on the models of a significant winter storm over a good portion of the country in the middle of next week. And I see all the major options still on the table for this systems possible track wrt to C-PA impacts (cutter, start cutting with secondary, get underneath PA and along coast). My take right now is that this smells of a wintry mess ala todays 12z operational euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think an inch or two is pretty doable, especially in our lil zone that's between the Allegheny front and I-99. When this gets more into meso-model range will have to see the take on the evolution of LES features. Would imagine the early stages of this event will feature the widespread snow shield (part LES/orographic and perhaps partly the remnants of the deform) that encompasses alot of western PA but doesnt get very far off the mountains. Given that this looks like a fairly strong event, I'd say that alone will probably be enough to get that inch or two for us. As the system itself starts lifting out and the NW flow continues, we could see the more intense discrete bands that with the right alignment (ie a huron connection) could penetrate much deeper into the central counties. Additionally (something also mentioned in CTP afternoon disco), alot of guidance still suggests the back end of the precip shield associated with the frontal passage Thurs night could turn over to snow before it moves out. 15z SREFs for example, have pretty high probabilities of 1"+ for alot of the central and even half decent probs for 4+ in the northern tier before you see the LES regime start lighting up the Laurels and west. Hr 69: Then there's the storm next week, we got a ways to go for that one. I do think this one could feature the best shot of wintry precip yet this early season. I also think this storm is going to attempt to cut with the -PNA and a neutral to perhaps slightly negative NAO (as it looks currently of course). However, I don't think this one is going to have the easy cut like the one coming up is going to have. For starters, we'll have had cold air in place. Then there's the debatable blocking discussion. I even saw JB and Margusity seem to get a lil snippy on twitter earlier today over this. To put this in 7-9 days out terms, there's a strong indication on the models of a significant winter storm over a good portion of the country in the middle of next week. And I see all the major options still on the table for this systems possible track wrt to C-PA impacts (cutter, start cutting with secondary, get underneath PA and along coast). My take right now is that this smells of a wintry mess ala todays 12z operational euro. Thanks, Mag. We generally do ok in these kind of setups, like a 1-3 sort of deal. Did you see the 18Z GFS? Wow. Overdone, of course. What was that even about? lol I saw the sniping between Henry and JB. Having worked at Accuwx it raised an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lol @GFS, throws out weaker wave Xmas night into the 26th to the lakes and just when you think "well that was kinda blah", this ensues afterward: Gotta love the Lol-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 its snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Baby steps... Meanwhile JST looks to get 6-12" I am loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Baby steps... Meanwhile JST looks to get 6-12" I am loving it. What section of Johnstown u gonna be at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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