metagraphica Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS has close to hurricane force sustained on ACK. Nice 100 knot LLJ over a chunk of SNE as well. There's also two wind pulses...one from the NE initially and then another one from the south as the low retrogrades west. The one from the south hits S RI/SE CT pretty good. IF this run of the GFS is correct, this would be 30-36 hours of sustained high winds and rain. With a decent amount of leaves still on trees here on the CT shore it might mean a ton of trees getting uprooted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMASShole1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is there a reason why the GFS holds Sandy in a holding pattern around NYC for almost 24 hrs? It looks like the high pressure ridge in the Atlantic shifts southwest instead of due south to block and hold the storm over NY/LI before releading it north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 latest recon plane had a max fl level wind of 74 knots (approx 85 mph), also there are signs the wind field has expanded . edit sorry that recon plane has only sampled NW quad so far. but pressure is 972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What do you think inland non elevation gusts to in MA/SNH....I'm guessing around 35-40 kts? Along the coast they would be higher than that in a GFS scenario. For the flatlands away from the coast, yeah...probably something in the 40-45 kt range but you have to be careful with 90-100 knot LLJs that are not very high off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Along the coast they would be higher than that in a GFS scenario. For the flatlands away from the coast, yeah...probably something in the 40-45 kt range but you have to be careful with 90-100 knot LLJs that are not very high off the ground. Yeah I was mostly talking away from the coast and that's what I figured. Looking forward to the wx discussion on the storm here at school tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That would be quite the solution for Phil on the Cape...50-55 kt sustained at the sfc but like 100 knots 1,000-2,000 feet up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like GGEM is doing same as GFS but perhaps a bit wider at 102... and almost looks like its going to miss completely.. may get back into ME after 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM is way east. Clips southern tip of NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro/NGP vs GFS/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro/NGP vs GFS/GGEM Except the GFS is land falling on LI and the GGEM is clipping NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro/NGP vs GFS/GGEM I wouldnt group the GFS and the GGEM; the GFS is a devastating s ne hit; the GGEM is a miss. Theyre together only insofar as they are not in the Euro camp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So Sandy makes the Perfect Storm loop just, eh, in Long Island Sound. Yeah pretty much. The thing is, depending on how Sandy enters, and exits the LIS area, will change where and when the storm surge hits. At this point, both the south shore of CT and Long Island need to be on the lookout, but we wont know specifics for a while. In terms of the 0z GFS, this is an incredible hit on NE, the cape, SE Ri and Block island are going to have some major major issues if the GFS verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Remember what hm said here today or yesterday about watching for a significant bump east. Has there ever been a storm this strong land falling in late October or November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Remember what hm said here today or yesterday about watching for a significant bump east. Has there ever been a storm this strong land falling in late October or November? Possibly, i'm not really sure. 1938 was about a month earlier and thats probably the best comparison we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 UKIE goes into NYC (or just south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Remember what hm said here today or yesterday about watching for a significant bump east. i haven't seen him post in a while do you remember his reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 UKIE goes into NYC at what angle i.e where is it 12-18 prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 at what angle i.e where is it 12-18 prior 96 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif 120 -- http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i haven't seen him post in a while do you remember his reasoning HM's post 10/25 12:23pm: Indeed but the Central Atlantic's low and western lobe will still bring the system some eastwardly movement on Sunday, the degree of which is very important of course. Should this occur and the phasing / backing west track process is overdone, the could lead to significant eastward alterations in the coming days ahead in the NWP. Lobed vortices, undercutting ridges and fujiwara playgrounds are major causes for last minute revisions in forecasts. That will be my stern warning of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS ensembles very close to the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 96 -- http://meteocentre.c...PN_096_0000.gif 120 -- http://meteocentre.c...PN_120_0000.gif i didn't realize the ukie doesn't offer 12 hr positon intervals somewhere the above gives me a general idea but not sure if that is a straight line or what sort of arc (track) to draw from LP position @96 to LP @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think the UKMET changed much from 12Z. i didn't realize the ukie doesn't offer 12 hr positon intervals somewhere the above gives me a general idea but not sure if that is a straight line or what sort of arc (track) to draw from LP position @96 to LP @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think the UKMET changed much from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't think the UKMET changed much from 12Z. 12z was near BOS... 0z NYC... clear south move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If anything it came west then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Thanks wxniss have only been reading a bit of the posts but I saw his and it made sense. Euro i thought would come ne at 12z was wrong think it happens now. Li is not the place to be and I'm pretty sure if these tracks verify my house will not have a roof by Tuesday. Ukie/gfs/gefs are pretty close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Late to the party but just looked at the GFS and that would be a major wind event here...would certainly see numerous issues with downed trees/power outages...coastal areas would be hit incredibly hard as well...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If anything it came west then. So big of a jump south-west...makes me wonder if EURO will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So big of a jump south-west...makes me wonder if EURO will hold serve. Yeah, but the Euro has been our one consistent model over the last few days, while others have been flip-flopping all over the place. I'm expecting the 00z Euro to still be south of Jersey, but we'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro perhaps goes a bit more in the way of the GFS with regards to track/landfall being further north. The Euro seems like it will be correct all along with the phasing occurring south of SNE but at the same time the Euro just may be too amped and too phase happy giving us the more southerly/westerly landfall. The GFS, while certainly there with the phasing is a bit less intense and may be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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