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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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The GFS has close to hurricane force sustained on ACK. Nice 100 knot LLJ over a chunk of SNE as well.

There's also two wind pulses...one from the NE initially and then another one from the south as the low retrogrades west. The one from the south hits S RI/SE CT pretty good.

IF this run of the GFS is correct, this would be 30-36 hours of sustained high winds and rain. With a decent amount of leaves still on trees here on the CT shore it might mean a ton of trees getting uprooted. :twister:

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What do you think inland non elevation gusts to in MA/SNH....I'm guessing around 35-40 kts?

Along the coast they would be higher than that in a GFS scenario. For the flatlands away from the coast, yeah...probably something in the 40-45 kt range but you have to be careful with 90-100 knot LLJs that are not very high off the ground.

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Along the coast they would be higher than that in a GFS scenario. For the flatlands away from the coast, yeah...probably something in the 40-45 kt range but you have to be careful with 90-100 knot LLJs that are not very high off the ground.

Yeah I was mostly talking away from the coast and that's what I figured.

Looking forward to the wx discussion on the storm here at school tomorrow afternoon.

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So Sandy makes the Perfect Storm loop just, eh, in Long Island Sound.

Yeah pretty much.

The thing is, depending on how Sandy enters, and exits the LIS area, will change where and when the storm surge hits. At this point, both the south shore of CT and Long Island need to be on the lookout, but we wont know specifics for a while.

In terms of the 0z GFS, this is an incredible hit on NE, the cape, SE Ri and Block island are going to have some major major issues if the GFS verifies

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i haven't seen him post in a while

do you remember his reasoning

HM's post 10/25 12:23pm:

Indeed but the Central Atlantic's low and western lobe will still bring the system some eastwardly movement on Sunday, the degree of which is very important of course. Should this occur and the phasing / backing west track process is overdone, the could lead to significant eastward alterations in the coming days ahead in the NWP.

Lobed vortices, undercutting ridges and fujiwara playgrounds are major causes for last minute revisions in forecasts. That will be my stern warning of the day.

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So big of a jump south-west...makes me wonder if EURO will hold serve.

Yeah, but the Euro has been our one consistent model over the last few days, while others have been flip-flopping all over the place.

I'm expecting the 00z Euro to still be south of Jersey, but we'll see soon.

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I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro perhaps goes a bit more in the way of the GFS with regards to track/landfall being further north. The Euro seems like it will be correct all along with the phasing occurring south of SNE but at the same time the Euro just may be too amped and too phase happy giving us the more southerly/westerly landfall. The GFS, while certainly there with the phasing is a bit less intense and may be more realistic.

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