mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As I mentioned hours ago, it's already going post-tropical. Secondary looks like it's trying to develop just east of Florida. This is no longer a truly tropical system. NHC and others could try cuddling it up as a hurricane as long as they want...but as we could already see the transition has taken place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As I mentioned hours ago, it's already going post-tropical. Secondary looks like it's trying to develop just east of Florida. This is no longer a truly tropical system. NHC and others could try cuddling it up as a hurricane as long as they want...but as we could already see the transition has taken place. Uhh, no. There is no temperature gradient, which is a requirement for an extra-tropical (or w/e term you would like to use) cyclone. It's a pretty classic shear pattern across a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Uhh, no. There is no temperature gradient, which is a requirement for an extra-tropical (or w/e term you would like to use) cyclone. It's a pretty classic shear pattern across a TC. Right now she reminds me of Michelle 2001, after crossing Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Right now she reminds me of Michelle 2001, after crossing Cuba. Pretty similar looking, I'd have to agree. I'd be shocked if they don't find at least some tilt to the core at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As I mentioned hours ago, it's already going post-tropical. Secondary looks like it's trying to develop just east of Florida. This is no longer a truly tropical system. NHC and others could try cuddling it up as a hurricane as long as they want...but as we could already see the transition has taken place. This is not the case at all. She is being affected by shear, but still very much a full warm core system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Uhh, no. There is no temperature gradient, which is a requirement for an extra-tropical (or w/e term you would like to use) cyclone. It's a pretty classic shear pattern across a TC. And it is purely warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 And it is purely warm core. you aint lying http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12102512/7.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yes 'technically' it's still warm core. (if you wanna use all the little official parameters) But it's already in hybrid status. We could forget about it looking like a true tropical system from here on out. Phasing with the trough is already occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Uhh, no. There is no temperature gradient, which is a requirement for an extra-tropical (or w/e term you would like to use) cyclone. It's a pretty classic shear pattern across a TC. You could say it's in the early stage of extra-tropical transition since it's deriving alot of energy out of the sub-tropical jet, like it has been for the past couple of days, but I agree it's still a pure tropical cyclone when it comes to the thermodynamic structure anywhere near the core. Especially since the extra-tropical transition that will ultimately lead to it becoming a baroclinic system won't occur until it begins to interact with the polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Eye wall just starting to come into view on the 248 nm Miami radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yes 'technically' it's still warm core. (if you wanna use all the little official parameters) But it's already in hybrid status. We could forget about it looking like a true tropical system from here on out. Phasing with the trough is already occuring. The whole thermo structure is wholly tropical. the trough is nowhere near close enough yet. Me thinks you have the ULL and through mixed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Latest microwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Latest microwave What happened to the southern eyewall?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What happened to the southern eyewall?? Wind shear from an upper level low to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looking at recon data, it's probably a 70/75 kts cat 1 with a central pressure around 970mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18Z Observations Can you provide a link to that please? Is that geographic domain specific to the Caribbean or is there one for the offshore waters of the Eastern US as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Kinda funny to watch the NHC's point of extratropical transition move north with each forecast, was initially near 32 °N but now it's at 42 °N. Looks like they're going to keep this classified until landfall. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al18/loop_5NLW.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wind shear from an upper level low to the west. Does Sandy have any chance of some modest restrenghtening over the next 24 hours as it moves over the Gulf Stream? However, I wonder if that upper-level low will keep on inducing shear on it with no ease at all forever. Also, is flight-level winds still at 120 knots? Appreciate your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Kinda funny to watch the NHC's point of extratropical transition move north with each forecast, was initially near 32 °N but now it's at 42 °N. Looks like they're going to keep this classified until landfall. http://www.nhc.noaa....loop_5NLW.shtml While irksome for us, probably for the best in regards to general public. Hurricane has a higher impact than "extra/sub-tropical storm." I'm betting NHC/NWS like stated earlier tipping their hand so that people don't get taken "off-guard" about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Does Sandy have any chance of some modest restrenghtening over the next 24 hours as it moves over the Gulf Stream? However, I wonder if that upper-level low will keep on inducing shear on it with no ease at all forever. Also, is flight-level winds still at 120 knots? Appreciate your input. Yes, the Tutt that is currently causing the storm to take on a ragged shape may actually get absorbed into the storm tomorrow allowing it to take on more symmetry and reducing the shear. It should still be over warm enough water with good outflow but still some weak-moderate shear. It is possible for it to regain some strength in that environment if the core hasn't been spread out too much. Hazel did it after crossing Cuba so it's not impossible. Odds are against a big maximum wind speed increase though. A pressure drop with no wind increase like Irene is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can you provide a link to that please? Is that geographic domain specific to the Caribbean or is there one for the offshore waters of the Eastern US as well? Map I created using Digital Atmosphere. I can create it for any geographic domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is way off on the intensity IMO- based on the sat pics and the SFMR winds from the NOAA bird, this thing is nowhere close to 90 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is way off on the intensity IMO- based on the sat pics and the SFMR winds from the NOAA bird, this thing is nowhere close to 90 kts. I think we're definitely going to see a downgrade at 11 pm EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC is way off on the intensity IMO- based on the sat pics and the SFMR winds from the NOAA bird, this thing is nowhere close to 90 kts. Can you please list the SMFR winds? I can't seem to find them. Thanks. Maybe tonight's diurnal minimum will stall the weakening process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Pressure up to 972, not surprising..... Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 01:10Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012 Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 7 Observation Number: 19 A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 0:43:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°52'N 75°52'W (24.8667N 75.8667W) B. Center Fix Location: 93 miles (150 km) to the E (98°) from Nassau, Bahamas. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SE (126°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 212° at 89kts (From the SSW at ~ 102.4mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.70 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,446m (8,025ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb O. Fix Determined By: Penetration O. Fix Level: 1,500 feet Remarks Section: Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 8,000 feet Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the east quadrant at 22:21:51Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:54:48Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 24hr MIMIC loop...including pre-Cuba hawtness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy's interaction with the upper low to the southwest will probably remain somewhat detrimental (shear proving more detrimental than the added upper divergence) for the next 12-18 hours or so. After that, with Sandy near Florida and slowing down on its northwest jog, Sandy should be in a position (far enough NE of the upper trough) to capitalize on the added forcing for ascent without as much shear blasting across its center. This should give it an opportunity to breathe and possibly strengthen significantly, provided the inner core dynamics/organization do not stop it from capitalizing on those more favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2012_18L/webManager/mainpage.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes, the Tutt that is currently causing the storm to take on a ragged shape may actually get absorbed into the storm tomorrow allowing it to take on more symmetry and reducing the shear. It should still be over warm enough water with good outflow but still some weak-moderate shear. It is possible for it to regain some strength in that environment if the core hasn't been spread out too much. Hazel did it after crossing Cuba so it's not impossible. Odds are against a big maximum wind speed increase though. A pressure drop with no wind increase like Irene is more likely. What? Upper Level Lows cannot get absorbed by tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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