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Hurricane Sandy


Wonderdog

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It also pushed it back a few days. I'm sure the ne forum guys are stoked and are ready to buy what the ecmwf is cooking.

I was kinda wondering about the speed as well. Tropicals are notoriously tough to pinpoint at longer leads (stating the obvious) but it really applies here. I figure NHC will start it's forecast track stuff tomorrow. Until we really start to get a handle on track and intensity it's kinda dangerous hugging a global or 2 at this point.

Edit: I obviously didn't check nhc's 2pm update when I made this post.

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Probably if it is correct, still a big if as there are likely to be more changes to the approaching trof over the next couple of days. We've still got the ggem and nogaps, that stellar duo. so the euro has gone from Erie to Cape Cod over the past run?

With this "storm" or whatever it is or isn't, I think we should really focus our attention on a more realistic probability of getting 50-60 MPH wind gusts for a sustained period of time. That is the scary part of this forecast. Snow? Bah - we wish.

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With this "storm" or whatever it is or isn't, I think we should really focus our attention on a more realistic probability of getting 50-60 MPH wind gusts for a sustained period of time. That is the scary part of this forecast. Snow? Bah - we wish.

As a person from North Carolina..... I find it amusing to watch the armageddon type reacting and worry about a cat 1 storm

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As a person from North Carolina..... I find it amusing to watch the armageddon type reacting and worry about a cat 1 storm

So it's dead set that a cat 1 will be the outcome? This likely will not be fully tropical so I don't really think you can characterize the potential impact to the EC in terms of the saffir simpson scale. While not necessarily likely at this point - this could have a much higher impact than a cat 1 storm if some of the stronger/further west models are correct.

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So it's dead set that a cat 1 will be the outcome? This likely will not be fully tropical so I don't really think you can characterize the potential impact to the EC in terms of the saffir simpson scale. While not necessarily likely at this point - this could have a much higher impact than a cat 1 storm if some of the stronger/further west models are correct.

It's often overlooked that once you get N of obx, noreasters are much more destructive than hurricanes. In this case, I'm not exactly sure how to classify some of the retrograding solutions if one was to verify though. It's nothing traditional in either sense of a noreaster or a hurricane.

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I can't believe he would even go to say things like that at this stage.

I believe it. It's been his MO since he went off the deep end.

The statement is truthful though. IF it did happen then wow, it would be a natural disaster. If various models continue to show similar solutions then accuwx is going start hyping like we've never seen them hype before.....if that's even possible.

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I mean, it is model interpretation and not a forecast. But still, I'm not sure I'd be throwing that out there.

He can hype without claiming to hype. It gets people's attention, drawing in more hits, but he can always wiggle out of it by claiming that what he's saying isn't a forecast.

He knows full well what he's doing.

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I dunno why locals are calling it a likely miss. I call it a no one has any clue.

No one does but I don't see the ggem being a likely solution and wouldn't be surprised if the euro trended towards its ensemble mean which is well east of cape cod. That said, I wouldn't completely throw out the euro and it would give us wind and maybe some light rain. The big problem with making any definitive statement is the shortwave that is supposed to capture the storm is still way out. I look at this as being similar to a snowstorm that needs phasing to succeed. Easier for New England but even they can get shafted.

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